Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

[Math23x7]

On Thursday, August 25th, Frank said this:



Well, Hermine has formed into a storm with potential flooding across the eastern US.  

Not to worry Frank, it wasn't just you.  On thought on the morning of August 27th, then Invest 99L was a goner.  I saw the 12Z EURO that day as it came out around 2:30 PM simply to look at other potential tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin.  And low and behold, it brought back the Gulf Storm that is now Hermine.

[sroc4]

On Thursday, August 25th, Frank said this:



Well, Hermine has formed into a storm with potential flooding across the eastern US.  

Not to worry Frank, it wasn't just you.  On thought on the morning of August 27th, then Invest 99L was a goner.  I saw the 12Z EURO that day as it came out around 2:30 PM simply to look at other potential tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin.  And low and behold, it brought back the Gulf Storm that is now Hermine.

[billg315]

This is not a criticism or judgment of anyone else, but just my personal feeling and my personal concerns/fears. While I will occasionally pull for us to get buried under a snowstorm, I will never wish for a strong hurricane or tropical system to make a direct hit on us. Snowstorms are fun to track, amazing to watch, leave a beautiful landscape of snow cover, and are fun for kids (and some adults) to play in. While there are certainly dangers with any storm, and snowstorms can result in some damage and fatalities, they are far more isolated and less frequent with snowstorms than tropical systems. I certainly never sit in my house during a snowstorm worrying about it caving in on me, or flooding. While tropical systems are fun to track, and an awesome display of nature, they are undeniably deadly and destructive. They almost always result in widespread damage if not total destruction, and deaths in many cases. I do not want my friends' new house at the shore flattened or flooded beyond repair; I don't want entire blocks of housing in shore towns wiped off the map; I do not want my roof blown off, a tree crashing through my bedroom, or my basement flooded -- nor any of those things for any of my neighbors or friends; I do not want people to be without power for days or weeks at a time. I remember during Sandy hearing the winds whipping outside, hearing the roof ripping off my apartment building, watching the normally sturdy utility poles swaying and thinking "man, these are 70 mph winds, I can't imagine how scary it would be if they were 100 mph or 120 mph." So, while people are free to wish for whatever they want, I will continue to wish that this thing (and every other tropical system in the future) either goes out to sea, or if it does impact us, it does so as a significantly weakened extra-tropical low with just some moderate rain and wind. Just my personal preference.

[Frank_Wx]

I tend to agree. Irene brought so much flooding here we had to rescue people with canoes. Fun to track and a majestic display of nature. But keep it out...

[billg315]

Yeah, exactly. Definitely Irene as well as Sandy. The rains from Irene were off the chart and the flooding was awful. I lost power for the same amount of time from Irene as I did Sandy.

[Math23x7]

I know there is a bit of adult language here but this video from Vic Dibitetto is as funny as heck:

[oldtimer]

Very cloudy most of the day with some peeks of sunshine breezy very early but by 5pm totally clear Now its clear dry and calm with star lit sky 67* Its hard for me to wrap my head around what went on this week with Hermine to be at this junction tonight. Nothing I really expected something going on at some point today With all the stuff we have today sometimes I think we are still back in the the 50's and 60's technology As a weather snow geek freak since I was 10 Ive had some real frustrating times but I love all of it Now I leave it up to you "kids" from here I'm mostly a observer now but occasionally put my two cents in I follow all you wonderful people on this forum all the time and enjoy it I get a laugh at some of the comics here also Now I feel a lot better Thanks

[NjWeatherGuy]

Ended up being more like fake hype over nothing like Joaquin.

[nutleyblizzard]

After all the lost sleep tracking this storm, I got egg on my face this morning from warning my friends and family of the impending hurricane that will never get here! A complete failure by the models. Does not bode well for us with winter approaching. Only 88 days and counting.

[NjWeatherGuy]

After all the lost sleep tracking this storm, I got egg on my face this morning from warning my friends and family of the impending hurricane that will never get here! A complete failure by the models. Does not bode well for us with winter approaching. Only 88 days and counting.

Luckily I told people it ain't gonna hit lol haha.

[amugs]

After all the lost sleep tracking this storm, I got egg on my face this morning from warning my friends and family of the impending hurricane that will never get here! A complete failure by the models. Does not bode well for us with winter approaching. Only 88 days and counting.

Nuts and if it did you look like a genius - that is the perilous line we walk in this imperfect science we can meteorology. Sandy is the perfect example - I remember telling people as early as Wednesday there is the potential for a disastrous set up - only 6 folks listened to me - now I have 135 blog followers and another 800 voyers as I can them. To say it was not coming is brash imo as to what was being modelled and even teh experts by NHC.

American Amnesia will help as will the upcoming Pres Election plus winter is a LONG ways away for the common folk and they'll most likely forget.

[Math23x7]

It's crazy how it works.  It just seems that people either heed the warnings for a storm that busted or they don't heed the warnings as a result of past false alarms or past "near-miss" storms and the storm delivers a devastating blow.  Irene and Sandy, respectively, are an example.  Five days before Sandy hit, I posted this on facebook.  Some of the people that replied seemed to brush it off saying no big deal:

[Frank_Wx]

I think I lost 3 years off my life tracking Hermine. What a royal pain in the ass. Tracking/forecasting tropics sucks!!

[jmanley32]

Frank after this debacle although I'll prolly get pulled in by the next. Nowwhere near to the extent this one did. It wasn't fun on iota. I will say tropics tracking which I've done longer tgat snowstorm is never usually like this one. I lost 5 yrs. So tired I slept till 1 today. Lol

[HectorO]

Tropics are s different game. Living in a hurricane zone I learned no forecasts are concrete. As I mentioned, Floyd's forecast changed a day before. 2 days before that we were bullseye for a cat 4 direct hit. I've always followed my instinct when I see them move on radar over waters which is why I didn't think it was going to hit sinvestment Wednesday. I don't have access to some of the stuff you guys have.

[frank 638]

what a big bust not even a drop of rain i am pretty sure many people had to cancel their outdoors plans .i am done with this tropial storm moving on

[Dtone]

what a big bust not even a drop of rain i am pretty sure many people had to cancel their outdoors plans .i am done with this tropial storm moving on

Yeah the roller coaster Hermine.
NYC beaches and some NYS beaches are staying open 1 - 2 weeks after Labor day so its possible to salvage some summer activities still. (Dont know what Jersey shore doing) looks to be hot..maybe very hot. Summer not letting go yet once this Hermine fiasco gets out the way.

[RJB8525]

I hope after this people won't think nothing will happen if a another storm brews because of all the hype. Sucks it happened on a holiday weekend. Plenty of family plans blew up in their faces

[Guest]

I hope after this people won't think nothing will happen if a another storm brews because of all the hype. Sucks it happened on a holiday weekend. Plenty of family plans blew up in their faces

I know I will dismiss the next one personally. 2016 and the models are an embarrassment. I will not cancel plans ever again due to a forecast.

[frank 638]

Same here I just want to know why every weather models are keep making the same mistake we had a similar forecast last year if I remember it was in October and I remember we were supposed to have a hurricane or tropical storm I don't know the name of it but it went out to sea

[billg315]

I am not looking forward to work tomorrow. lol. I really tried to downplay the impact of the storm Thursday when I was convinced it was more likely to drift OTS, but with the models bringing it west I had to cave on Friday and warn people about how crappy things could get Sunday and Monday. Even then I tried to be very moderate in describing it and said that west of the turnpike wouldn't get too much (thank God I stuck to that). But I know I'm going to be held to answer for even suggesting it would be cloudy and windy with showers Sunday and Monday.

[billg315]

I hope after this people won't think nothing will happen if a another storm brews because of all the hype. Sucks it happened on a holiday weekend. Plenty of family plans blew up in their faces

This actually is a real problem. I can tell you I left the shore with a couple of my friends who own a house there Saturday based on the forecast and the fact that early Saturday the shore was already experiencing very strong wind gusts (we actually scrambled to bring in the outdoor furniture) under cloudy skies and there was some minor street flooding from high tide. The bridge to Avalon closed due to flooding. We even had a brief rain shower. At that moment it seemed like the forecast was on track so we decided to leave before more flooding at the next high tide. By Saturday night the clouds were breaking, the winds had died down and Sunday was a perfectly sunny breezy day. My friends went back to the shore and basically said they never should have listened to the forecast. I guarantee you there will be people who will not listen to the forecast the next time one of these events happens, unless there is great certainty and mandatory evacuations.

[billg315]

I feel like these tropical systems are the worst for this type of uncertainty -- much worse than snowstorms. Think about it: Generally speaking, in the summer and late summer where you have pretty much a zonal flow, these tropical systems want to go east once they get to a certain latitude. Everything is trying to pull them to the east and out to sea, south of the mid-Atlantic region. This frankly is why we have so few that actually impact us up here. Think of how many storms crash west into the Carolinas, but turn sharply east before they get this far north. It's almost like a U-turn. You have to have all the right circumstances in place to have one of these run up the coast, or crash into the coast this far north. Even then, if you can get them to keep trekking north/northeast, the exact track can be just as difficult to forecast as a nor'easter and 100 miles either way can make a huge difference in impacts. This makes being able to forecast one of these with any degree of confidence or certainty for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast very dubious. Essentially we are set up for failure (or in the minds of those who want to feel the direct impacts of one of these storms, disappointment).

[amugs]

I hope after this people won't think nothing will happen if a another storm brews because of all the hype. Sucks it happened on a holiday weekend. Plenty of family plans blew up in their faces

This actually is a real problem. I can tell you I left the shore with a couple of my friends who own a house there Saturday based on the forecast and the fact that early Saturday the shore was already experiencing very strong wind gusts (we actually scrambled to bring in the outdoor furniture) under cloudy skies and there was some minor street flooding from high tide. The bridge to Avalon closed due to flooding. We even had a brief rain shower. At that moment it seemed like the forecast was on track so we decided to leave before more flooding at the next high tide. By Saturday night the clouds were breaking, the winds had died down and Sunday was a perfectly sunny breezy day. My friends went back to the shore and basically said they never should have listened to the forecast. I guarantee you there will be people who will not listen to the forecast the next time one of these events happens, unless there is great certainty and mandatory evacuations.

American Amnesia - Sandy??? Irene was forecasted to be bad for the shore and they evacuated etc. It was not bad at all - sped up and weakened. By late morning it was over for teh shore and people were moving on. Then came Sandy and people did not here any warning well NHC did not post any warnings really and people were of the mindset it woudl be over quickly and it was going to be nor'easter. I remember coaching my sons soccer games on Sunday afternoon and the winds and clouds were swirling a gust blew and the steel light poles swayed. I got two phone calls on the sideline one from my wife's aunt saying they might ride it out on teh beach in wildwood and another from my friend who said he was riding it out on his bay house in Brick. After teh high tide came in Wildwood and flooded almost teh entire island and the y ere told to evacuate they drove through the floods to get off teh island and several parts of teh GSP were flooded. My friend will not admit that riding it out was a mistake - he wanted to save his boat - guess what - he did not and lost his car and almost his life!!! Both I told to get the H out but they said Irene was a hurricane and not much happened so this is not even a hurricane.

Up here we do not want to believe that it will happen, I love every time a forecast does not come to fruition everyone says about the pro mets they get a lot of money to be wrong. This is a science and no science is never 100% correct. Until people realize this yuo have to take with a grain of salt - mother nature and this phenomena we call weather has been here for billions of years and we are actually ignorant to believe we can exactly predict what, when and were things will happen even with our most sophisticated equipment. The butterfly effect, Haarp and gov't tinkering can all have a role - LOL !!!

Also as Jim Witt has shown numerous times with his long range forecasts (he is pro met from the 60' through 90's) history repeats itself - you can get an analog on almost every storm and get an idea of what trajectory the storm can take, 1894 is an example of this one ( posted this in our discussion from the great UNC W). Also, the planetary alignment has a lot to do with our weather patterns as well.

Tropical systems are the hardest to try and make a call on - sooooooo many variables at play. I lost 3 days as well tracking this pain in the arse but it was fun and I learned a lot as usual for the next one

[billg315]

I hope after this people won't think nothing will happen if a another storm brews because of all the hype. Sucks it happened on a holiday weekend. Plenty of family plans blew up in their faces

This actually is a real problem. I can tell you I left the shore with a couple of my friends who own a house there Saturday based on the forecast and the fact that early Saturday the shore was already experiencing very strong wind gusts (we actually scrambled to bring in the outdoor furniture) under cloudy skies and there was some minor street flooding from high tide. The bridge to Avalon closed due to flooding. We even had a brief rain shower. At that moment it seemed like the forecast was on track so we decided to leave before more flooding at the next high tide. By Saturday night the clouds were breaking, the winds had died down and Sunday was a perfectly sunny breezy day. My friends went back to the shore and basically said they never should have listened to the forecast. I guarantee you there will be people who will not listen to the forecast the next time one of these events happens, unless there is great certainty and mandatory evacuations.

American Amnesia - Sandy??? Irene was forecasted to be bad for the shore and they evacuated etc. It was not bad at all - sped up and weakened. By late morning it was over for teh shore and people were moving on. Then came Sandy and people did not here any warning well NHC did not post any warnings really and people were of the mindset it woudl be over quickly and it was going to be nor'easter. I remember coaching my sons soccer games on Sunday afternoon and the winds and clouds were swirling a gust blew and the steel light poles swayed. I got two phone calls on the sideline one from my wife's aunt saying they might ride it out on teh beach in wildwood and another from my friend who said he was riding it out on his bay house in Brick. After teh high tide came in Wildwood and flooded almost teh entire island and the y ere told to evacuate they drove through the floods to get off teh island and several parts of teh GSP were flooded. My friend will not admit that riding it out was a mistake - he wanted to save his boat - guess what - he did not and lost his car and almost his life!!! Both I told to get the H out but they said Irene was a hurricane and not much happened so this is not even a hurricane.

Up here we do not want to believe that it will happen, I love every time a forecast does not come to fruition everyone says about the pro mets they get a lot of money to be wrong. This is a science and no science is never 100% correct. Until people realize this yuo have to take with a grain of salt - mother nature and this phenomena we call weather has been here for billions of years and we are actually ignorant to believe we can exactly predict what, when and were things will happen even with our most sophisticated equipment. The butterfly effect, Haarp and gov't tinkering can all have a role - LOL !!!

Also as Jim Witt has shown numerous times with his long range forecasts (he is pro met from the 60' through 90's) history repeats itself - you can get an analog on almost every storm and get an idea of what trajectory the storm can take, 1894 is an example of this one ( posted this in our discussion from the great UNC W). Also, the planetary alignment has a lot to do with our weather patterns as well.

Tropical systems are the hardest to try and make a call on - sooooooo many variables at play. I lost 3 days as well tracking this pain in the arse but it was fun and I learned a lot as usual for the next one

Agree with you 100 percent. I took the approach of better safe than sorry and didn't want to lose my car to flooding (wasn't really concerned for my safety as by Sat. Morning it appeared the worst conditions would still stay offshore even if we got clipped). I would do the same thing next time. But unfortunately not everyone learns from history and not everyone is as cautious as I about these things.

[Math23x7]

Soon after the 7-online chat board was shut down in 2013, I copy-pasted the post from ltthedog in March 2011 entitled "A day in the life of the accu-board"  The Off-Topic thread on this forum was revamped months later and the post unfortunately got lost.  But thanks to the Internet Achive Wayback Machine, I was able to access it.  I posted this on this forum on August 22nd, 2013 and it is still one of the most hilarious things I have seen on a weather forum.  Also, for those of you who don't know in this post, Thomas = NjWeatherGuy and Bill = Bill Evans, WABC-TV meteorologist:

From: ltthedog To: All 1 of 36 Sent: 03/24/2011, 1:51 PM
Ok been thinking about this one for a while. This is a typical day in the accuweather chat board lets say 2 days before a major storm is forecast for nyc metro. I will try and fail to make this humorous so please don't take offense this is all in good fun.

12:01 am- Frank posts his official blog#2 about the upcoming storm and the godzilla potential after seeing the night's NAM and GFS come in colder. As always his blog is thought provoking and informing.

12:02 a.m.- JLoprete asks if this means a lot of snow for western central N.J.

12:04- Thomas comes in and tells JLoprete this is not our storm no matter where the NAM or GFS are showing heavy precip setting up

12:07- A major discussion breaks out with goal, ranger fan, and ettinger, regarding whether it will be cold enough on L.I. and whether mixing will be an issue.

12:10- ltthhedog proclaims the storm will overperform and he likes his position in western essex county describes for the millionth time how this is the place you want to be in one of these storms.

12:20- History posts a link showing how a earthquake 4,000 years ago is impacting our weather and affect the storm.

12:21- Aaadmilack seeing history is on asks if this storm looks good for the LHV.

12:25- Monkeydoodles tells everyone she is excited for the storm and is having fun tracking with the board.

12:30-2:00- The board quiets as most normal people sleep. ltthedog steals other good posts from other boards to reinforce his thinking of his sweet spot.

2:15- Ettinger talks about the Euro saying it is warmer than 12z but still showing a good hit may be mixing issues on L.I.

2:30- Wax posts saying he is on the train and are we still supposed to get a big storm. The entire board is asleep.

5:30- Bill does his a.m. update which as always is excellent as always giving everyone a good recap as where we are with the storm.

6:30- Someone no one has ever heard of posts ridiculous snowfall totals concerning the storm.

7:00- A few random posts by people we've never heard of asking IMBY snowfall questions.

8:00- Bill's post still does not have any replies.

8:30- Frank does his normal morning update

8:32- Frank's post has 17 responses in 3 minutes.

8:37- The general consensus is there that this will be a widespread storm as WSWatches are posted for all of nyc metro.

8:45- Melvin posts the accuweather 5 day forecast from 2 days ago showing it's supposed to be 39 and rain during the storm. Says everyone is nuts

8:47- Phil comes on and tells Melvin that he agrees with his forecast.

9:00- Board is quiet as people leave for work.

12:00- 12z updates begin to come in showing a possible severe western cutoff into NJ

12:02- Thomas again mentions the snow hole he lives in and how another storm may jackpot L.I.

12:05- ltthedog mentions that this is def where he wants to be with the storm 30 hours out as it always pivots west before it hits. Shows data from storms as far back as the early 90's.

12:10- The long island crew become very excited seeing that the heavy precip is supposed to setup there. Talks of elevation (who knew L.I. even had elevation) begin and the merits of being on the north shore or south shore and where it will be coldest.

3:00 Snowman asks History if this will be a big storm for the LHV

3:01 History posts that in 500 years a major shift on the earths axis will occur because of solar flares.

3:02 Seeing that history is on Aaadmilack asks if there will be school in the LHV

3:03 JLoprete seeing someone else asking an imby question immediately asks if this will be a big storm for western central nj

3:05 Bill's morning am update still has zero replies but Frank's is closing in on 200.

3:15 The 18Z NAM comes in warm and drier.

3:16 35 posts in one minute ranging from how bad the NAM is, it must have had initialization errors, to this will go down as one of the biggest busts ever (this is the 18Z NAM)

3:17 Melvin posts his two day old five day accuweather forecast and says he knew it wouldn't snow.

3:18 Phil says that everyone on this board is terrible other than Frank and Thomas and that Melvin was right the whole time (ends the post schmaltzie)

4:00 The GFS comes in much colder than it's 12Z run and shows widespread heavy snow with mixing not being an issue unless you are down in A.C.

4:05 Numerous posters say that this winter the GFS has done a much better job than the NAM etc. and that obviously the GFS is nailing this storm and the NAM is out to lunch. (This is the 18Z GFS run)

4:06 JLoprete asks if this will be a big storm for western central nj

4:10 Thomas says that everyone is reading the GFS wrong and that his accuweather pro site is saying that surface temps and the 850's are much warmer than what everyone is saying his thinking is much more in line with the NAM and this will be a non-storm

4:30 Frank (as always the voice of reason) recaps what he's thinking. His post immediately has 20 questions as if the messiah has just come down from the mountain.

4:45 Bills excellent p.m. update has gone completely unread.

5:00 Someone asks Frank if he is a prof met. 10 people respond in 2 min that he is only 18.

5:00-9:00 The board is pretty quiet as we all wait for the oz suite to begin at nine. General opinions are bantered as to what people are saying on other sights. A HM video appears where HM is predicting 2 feet for some areas and is wearing his big dog hat. Immediately HM is discredited along with JB and DT as they have had terrible winters. Thomas announces for the thousandth time how he has nailed every storm this winter.

9:00 Someone announces the NAM is rolling.

9:20 The NAM SHOWS A HUGE HIT. Everyone talks about how consistent the NAM has been this winter and that it should be the model that is used the most in this time frame.

9:30 A thousand school closing questions are asked.

9:31 History shows a link how the lunar cycle will be 2 min shorter a year in only 200 years

9:32 Aadmilack asks history if this will be a big storm for the LHV

9:35 The NAM is dissected a million different ways. Extreme eye strain sets in trying to differentiate colors and qpf.

9:45 Text soundings show all snow for the entire area with an extreme cutoff in western nj. Thomas is beyond words.

10:00 Monkeydoodles says she is having fun just tracking the storm with us and how much she loves all of us.

10:30 The board anxiously awaits the 0z GFS.

Hope everyone enjoyrd comments appreciated.

[Dunnzoo]

I love that, and I am still in touch with Wax

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