Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

by **Math23x7** Tue Sep 06, 2016 1:57 pm

Soon after the 7-online chat board was shut down in 2013, I copy-pasted the post from ltthedog in March 2011 entitled "A day in the life of the accu-board" The Off-Topic thread on this forum was revamped months later and the post unfortunately got lost. But thanks to the Internet Achive Wayback Machine, I was able to access it. I posted this on this forum on August 22nd, 2013 and it is still one of the most hilarious things I have seen on a weather forum. Also, for those of you who don't know in this post, Thomas = NjWeatherGuy and Bill = Bill Evans, WABC-TV meteorologist:

From: ltthedog To: All 1 of 36 Sent: 03/24/2011, 1:51 PM
Ok been thinking about this one for a while. This is a typical day in the accuweather chat board lets say 2 days before a major storm is forecast for nyc metro. I will try and fail to make this humorous so please don't take offense this is all in good fun.

12:01 am- Frank posts his official blog#2 about the upcoming storm and the godzilla potential after seeing the night's NAM and GFS come in colder. As always his blog is thought provoking and informing.

12:02 a.m.- JLoprete asks if this means a lot of snow for western central N.J.

12:04- Thomas comes in and tells JLoprete this is not our storm no matter where the NAM or GFS are showing heavy precip setting up

12:07- A major discussion breaks out with goal, ranger fan, and ettinger, regarding whether it will be cold enough on L.I. and whether mixing will be an issue.

12:10- ltthhedog proclaims the storm will overperform and he likes his position in western essex county describes for the millionth time how this is the place you want to be in one of these storms.

12:20- History posts a link showing how a earthquake 4,000 years ago is impacting our weather and affect the storm.

12:21- Aaadmilack seeing history is on asks if this storm looks good for the LHV.

12:25- Monkeydoodles tells everyone she is excited for the storm and is having fun tracking with the board.

12:30-2:00- The board quiets as most normal people sleep. ltthedog steals other good posts from other boards to reinforce his thinking of his sweet spot.

2:15- Ettinger talks about the Euro saying it is warmer than 12z but still showing a good hit may be mixing issues on L.I.

2:30- Wax posts saying he is on the train and are we still supposed to get a big storm. The entire board is asleep.

5:30- Bill does his a.m. update which as always is excellent as always giving everyone a good recap as where we are with the storm.

6:30- Someone no one has ever heard of posts ridiculous snowfall totals concerning the storm.

7:00- A few random posts by people we've never heard of asking IMBY snowfall questions.

8:00- Bill's post still does not have any replies.

8:30- Frank does his normal morning update

8:32- Frank's post has 17 responses in 3 minutes.

8:37- The general consensus is there that this will be a widespread storm as WSWatches are posted for all of nyc metro.

8:45- Melvin posts the accuweather 5 day forecast from 2 days ago showing it's supposed to be 39 and rain during the storm. Says everyone is nuts

8:47- Phil comes on and tells Melvin that he agrees with his forecast.

9:00- Board is quiet as people leave for work.

12:00- 12z updates begin to come in showing a possible severe western cutoff into NJ

12:02- Thomas again mentions the snow hole he lives in and how another storm may jackpot L.I.

12:05- ltthedog mentions that this is def where he wants to be with the storm 30 hours out as it always pivots west before it hits. Shows data from storms as far back as the early 90's.

12:10- The long island crew become very excited seeing that the heavy precip is supposed to setup there. Talks of elevation (who knew L.I. even had elevation) begin and the merits of being on the north shore or south shore and where it will be coldest.

3:00 Snowman asks History if this will be a big storm for the LHV

3:01 History posts that in 500 years a major shift on the earths axis will occur because of solar flares.

3:02 Seeing that history is on Aaadmilack asks if there will be school in the LHV

3:03 JLoprete seeing someone else asking an imby question immediately asks if this will be a big storm for western central nj

3:05 Bill's morning am update still has zero replies but Frank's is closing in on 200.

3:15 The 18Z NAM comes in warm and drier.

3:16 35 posts in one minute ranging from how bad the NAM is, it must have had initialization errors, to this will go down as one of the biggest busts ever (this is the 18Z NAM)

3:17 Melvin posts his two day old five day accuweather forecast and says he knew it wouldn't snow.

3:18 Phil says that everyone on this board is terrible other than Frank and Thomas and that Melvin was right the whole time (ends the post schmaltzie)

4:00 The GFS comes in much colder than it's 12Z run and shows widespread heavy snow with mixing not being an issue unless you are down in A.C.

4:05 Numerous posters say that this winter the GFS has done a much better job than the NAM etc. and that obviously the GFS is nailing this storm and the NAM is out to lunch. (This is the 18Z GFS run)

4:06 JLoprete asks if this will be a big storm for western central nj

4:10 Thomas says that everyone is reading the GFS wrong and that his accuweather pro site is saying that surface temps and the 850's are much warmer than what everyone is saying his thinking is much more in line with the NAM and this will be a non-storm

4:30 Frank (as always the voice of reason) recaps what he's thinking. His post immediately has 20 questions as if the messiah has just come down from the mountain.

4:45 Bills excellent p.m. update has gone completely unread.

5:00 Someone asks Frank if he is a prof met. 10 people respond in 2 min that he is only 18.

5:00-9:00 The board is pretty quiet as we all wait for the oz suite to begin at nine. General opinions are bantered as to what people are saying on other sights. A HM video appears where HM is predicting 2 feet for some areas and is wearing his big dog hat. Immediately HM is discredited along with JB and DT as they have had terrible winters. Thomas announces for the thousandth time how he has nailed every storm this winter.

9:00 Someone announces the NAM is rolling.

9:20 The NAM SHOWS A HUGE HIT. Everyone talks about how consistent the NAM has been this winter and that it should be the model that is used the most in this time frame.

9:30 A thousand school closing questions are asked.

9:31 History shows a link how the lunar cycle will be 2 min shorter a year in only 200 years

9:32 Aadmilack asks history if this will be a big storm for the LHV

9:35 The NAM is dissected a million different ways. Extreme eye strain sets in trying to differentiate colors and qpf.

9:45 Text soundings show all snow for the entire area with an extreme cutoff in western nj. Thomas is beyond words.

10:00 Monkeydoodles says she is having fun just tracking the storm with us and how much she loves all of us.

10:30 The board anxiously awaits the 0z GFS.

Hope everyone enjoyrd comments appreciated.

by **Dunnzoo** Tue Sep 06, 2016 7:45 pm

I love that, and I am still in touch with Wax

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Sep 06, 2016 8:08 pm

The 7-online chat board was the first site I followed for weather. I myself never posted there, but I did learn a lot from NJ WeatherGuy and the other mets. It's a shame the moderators there could not control all the "trolling" that was going on over there especially in the end. That was the chatroom's ultimate demise.

by **Dunnzoo** Tue Sep 06, 2016 8:13 pm

Road trip anyone?

http://www.wcsu.edu/weatherconference/

I'm probably going and I think Alex is going...

by **amugs** Tue Sep 06, 2016 9:29 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:I love that, and I am still in touch with Wax

That man must have been out of his mind with this storm!!!

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Sep 07, 2016 3:22 am

In terms of Hermine, tracking it was a nightmare, models did terrible, shockingly, imo the CMC and NAVGEM did best... and I've NEVER seen a tropical cyclone meander at this latitude like this, moved like 50-100mi in the past day, but Im also young, some old timers feel free to chime in. Feel like storms are always quick to get up and out of here, even extratropical winter storms forecasted to stall.

by **Radz** Sun Sep 11, 2016 7:37 am

Dunnzoo wrote:Road trip anyone?

http://www.wcsu.edu/weatherconference/

I'm probably going and I think Alex is going...

Speaking of road trips, after much research i took your advise and will be joining Extreme Tornado Tours for tour#3 April 29th- May 5th - hoping for an active week this coming Spring! I know Reed's wife Maria just enrolled in grad school in Michigan going for her PhD, but hopefully he will make a guest appearance!

by **Dunnzoo** Sun Sep 11, 2016 8:27 am

Radz wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:Road trip anyone?

http://www.wcsu.edu/weatherconference/

I'm probably going and I think Alex is going...

Speaking of road trips, after much research i took your advise and will be joining Extreme Tornado Tours for tour#3 April 29th- May 5th - hoping for an active week this coming Spring! I know Reed's wife Maria just enrolled in grad school in Michigan going for her PhD, but hopefully he will make a guest appearance!

That's awesome! I am about 2 years away from being able to go Sad

by **Radz** Sun Sep 11, 2016 10:08 am

Dunnzoo wrote:
Radz wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:Road trip anyone?

http://www.wcsu.edu/weatherconference/

I'm probably going and I think Alex is going...

Speaking of road trips, after much research i took your advise and will be joining Extreme Tornado Tours for tour#3 April 29th- May 5th - hoping for an active week this coming Spring! I know Reed's wife Maria just enrolled in grad school in Michigan going for her PhD, but hopefully he will make a guest appearance!

That's awesome! I am about 2 years away from being able to go

With both children out of college and employed i figured its now or never - can't wait, will hopefully have much to share with the forum cheers

by **Snow88** Sun Sep 11, 2016 10:14 am

Wow, I didn't know that the area just missed a hurricane on 9-11-01

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 6 256tz5z

by **sroc4** Tue Sep 13, 2016 11:08 am

Sooooo the latest CFS is in and it looks like we have a Christmas blizzard to track. Its going to be long nights ahead folks. This is the image from hr 2520 or 105 days from now. This is right in the CFS's wheelhouse as far as forecasting goes sooooo told ya

by **algae888** Tue Sep 13, 2016 1:39 pm

sroc4 wrote:Sooooo the latest CFS is in and it looks like we have a Christmas blizzard to track. Its going to be long nights ahead folks. This is the image from hr 2520 or 105 days from now. This is right in the CFS's wheelhouse as far as forecasting goes sooooo

Scott I hear the euro is on board too however the CMC is south and east big runs tonight at 0 0 Z I'll be up can't wait for them.lol only a hundred and two more days till the short range models come out

by **algae888** Tue Sep 13, 2016 1:42 pm

I have a prediction for this coming December it will be colder than last December. I'm willing to stake my life on it Very Happy

by **frank 638** Tue Sep 13, 2016 4:55 pm

algae888 i def agree with u last december was horrible so warm did not even feel like christmas at all it felt like spring was comeing my block had flowers growning on the trees people were at the beach on xmas .anyway i think this dec it will be colder then last year and i am praying for a whit xmas esp blizzard bring it

by **amugs** Tue Sep 13, 2016 5:05 pm

Peeps this winter will NOT be as warm as last winter (not nearly) - for God's sake it was + double digits in DEC!!

by **Dunnzoo** Wed Sep 14, 2016 4:16 pm

NJWO PRESENTS
NWS Meteorologist William Goodman!
Among the Topics: Hurricanes and Snow!

Wednesday September 14,2016 7PM Sharp!

at Temple Beth Or
56 Ridgewood Rd
Washington Twp., NJ 07676

mugs and I are both members of this group. If anyone is around tonight in NNJ feel free to stop by!

by Guest Wed Sep 14, 2016 8:29 pm

....Here's how frustrating the weather is and why so many people hate/don't care to follow it.

I "tracked" Hermine for 5 to 6 days prior to it making it's approach to us where I then closely followed it and radar trends for another 4 days. All along I was hoping for a soaking rain which is much needed around here. (and for my fall mushroom foraging. It's just about peak season but too dry) These 9 to 10 days of tracking and hoping for rain ended up with 12 hours of a steady drizzle. Then today out of nowhere and completely unexpected and not forecast (20% chance) we go from not a cloud in the sky at 5:00 p.m to .78" in the bucket by 6:30. Shocked

...
I repeat what my old Italian family members always say. "Ma Jimmy, stopa watching the stupid weather. Deesa people no understand nothing. When you look outta da window you will see whatsa happening"

by **sroc4** Wed Sep 14, 2016 8:34 pm

syosnow94 wrote:....Here's how frustrating the weather is and why so many people hate/don't care to follow it.

I "tracked" Hermine for 5 to 6 days prior to it making it's approach to us where I then closely followed it and radar trends for another 4 days. All along I was hoping for a soaking rain which is much needed around here. (and for my fall mushroom foraging. It's just about peak season but too dry) These 9 to 10 days of tracking and hoping for rain ended up with 12 hours of a steady drizzle. Then today out of nowhere and completely unexpected and not forecast (20% chance) we go from not a cloud in the sky at 5:00 p.m to .78" in the bucket by 6:30. ...
I repeat what my old Italian family members always say. "Ma Jimmy, stopa watching the stupid weather. Deesa people no understand nothing. When you look outta da window you will see whatsa happening"

You need to put this in your signature. It's classic. lol!

by **Quietace** Fri Sep 16, 2016 8:33 pm

I made HRRR graphics and a page and it is now on vortex. We are having a few issues ingesting data and that's why you see the "No contour data" message(its the default for missing data).
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/fx/hrrr/
Lots of updating still going on....a work in progress.

by **HectorO** Fri Sep 16, 2016 9:48 pm

When was the last time we've had two bad winters in a row? I know we've had a few good ones in a row in the past, but can't recall having to bad ones back to back. I mean bad as in, usually mild and pretty snowless.

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Sep 17, 2016 9:53 pm

So since we may have an active winter, most likely a backended one, I thought about getting these for my 81 year old Mom's house. Anyone have these or have any experience with them?

http://heattrak.com/

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:19 pm

Meteorologist Joe Cioffi just gave a shoutout to Tom (Isotherm)'s website... showing the snowfall maps for NJ over the years. Tom, expect your site traffic to tick up some!

by **amugs** Mon Sep 19, 2016 10:06 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Meteorologist Joe Cioffi just gave a shoutout to Tom (Isotherm)'s website... showing the snowfall maps for NJ over the years. Tom, expect your site traffic to tick up some!

Congrats Tom tbat is awesome, question did he ask for permission as stated on his site??

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Sep 19, 2016 11:16 pm

amugs wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:Meteorologist Joe Cioffi just gave a shoutout to Tom (Isotherm)'s website... showing the snowfall maps for NJ over the years. Tom, expect your site traffic to tick up some!

Congrats Tom tbat is awesome, question did he ask for permission as stated on his site??

He shared the link to his site, Joe does live videos on FB and he has started talking about winter

by **Quietace** Thu Sep 22, 2016 2:20 pm

Leaves are changing pretty rapidly, and the amount of daylight is dropping quickly. Sunrise 6:36. Sunset 6:43 today but the sun goes behind the mountains quite earlier(In the winter it can begin hiding behind the mountains near 3pm).

by **Quietace** Thu Sep 22, 2016 2:22 pm

Currently updating our regional products. Surface temps was done quite a while back yet we still have DP, wind chill, heat index, and regional station data to do. I did Dp this morning...I may have to turn station density down a bit....lots of overlapping station sin Montreal, NYC area. Yet if I turn it down to much I lose coverage, lose lose I guess.
Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 6 Nedewpoint

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 6 Nedewpoint

by **sroc4** Sat Sep 24, 2016 5:56 pm

This cooler weather makes me very happy. That is all.

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