Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:52 pm

amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:GEFS are back - da crushers jesus - this would be a devastating scenario if it comes to fruition.

Wow they all look almost in agreement! This far out thats amazing, GFS has been killing it on track so far, not really with intensity.

Jman I said this to you yesterday that imagine if we blended the euro intensity with the GFS 6Z and 12 Z track from yesterday or teh 18Z from Wed?? Holy snikeysss.

Ya I know, thats what I am thinking might happen. Going to be a long week, gonna try stay busy over the weekend make time go by faster, but its nasty out and I have been sick (viral) so thats why I have been online so much, plus I do a online business and my job involves a lot of computer so I am rarely away from a computer or phone..

by track17 Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:54 pm

But Jersey shore should be ok right? Just Long Island that has to worry right

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:57 pm

This storm would be huge, no would cover a extremely large area. But too early to tell where its going. But if its even offshore there will still probably be effects, including jersey shore. and thats a IF as frank said earlier, he will let us know to sound the alarm or not by monday night or tuesday.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:58 pm

track17 wrote:But Jersey shore should be ok right? Just Long Island that has to worry right

Not to sound like a jerk, but how would NJ be OK if LI has to worry? They separate each other by a few miles and Matthew has a wind span that stretches 70-100 miles.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:59 pm

by **amugs** Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:01 pm

OH SNAP RECON

Mathew is moving SOUTHWEST.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:02 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
track17 wrote:But Jersey shore should be ok right? Just Long Island that has to worry right

Not to sound like a jerk, but how would NJ be OK if LI has to worry? They separate each other by a few miles and Matthew has a wind span that stretches 70-100 miles.

I thought the entire windfield was closer to 200 miles now, and if it moved up coast would it not likely expand like you know who did? But yes obviously what you say is a fact.

by **amugs** Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:02 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:

Much more west lean here, FLA get ready

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:02 pm

amugs wrote:OH SNAP RECON

Mathew is moving SOUTHWEST.

that was forecasted wasnt it?

by **amugs** Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:04 pm

OH NELLLIEEEEEEE

STEERING WINGS ALOFT
HURRICANE MATTHEW - Page 25 Wg8dlm1

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:04 pm

amugs wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:

Much more west lean here, FLA get ready

So it looks at the end as if its headed OTS, is that it feeling a weakness in the ridge? So is the only way this effects us if the trough catches it or could the ridge also keep it west and not have a NE turn?

by **amugs** Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:05 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:OH SNAP RECON

Mathew is moving SOUTHWEST.

that was forecasted wasnt it?

nOT THAT i KNOW - THEY WERE SAYING IN THE LAST TWO RECON FLIGHTS A WEST TO WSW MOTION NOT DUE SW

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:06 pm

amugs wrote:OH NELLLIEEEEEEE

STEERING WINGS ALOFT

Which part are we looking at the SE winds north of matthew? I assume thats going to change as N turn is in next day or two.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:08 pm

Well matthew might be able to still push through that or will he automatically follow those steering currents? If so and no change soon will be in the pacific eventually, lol doubt that.

Edit: mugs NHC says WSW where did you get SW? Is that in the recon data?

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:11 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
track17 wrote:But Jersey shore should be ok right? Just Long Island that has to worry right

Not to sound like a jerk, but how would NJ be OK if LI has to worry? They separate each other by a few miles and Matthew has a wind span that stretches 70-100 miles.

I thought the entire windfield was closer to 200 miles now, and if it moved up coast would it not likely expand like you know who did? But yes obviously what you say is a fact.

True, as long as there is a phase and it turns into a hybrid.

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:OH SNAP RECON

Mathew is moving SOUTHWEST.

that was forecasted wasnt it?

NHC cone doesn't really show it.

amugs wrote:OH NELLLIEEEEEEE

STEERING WINGS ALOFT

This system is too strong. Gotta look at 300mb layer or higher.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:24 pm

levi video. no mention this far north, feels ots most likely, dunno if i agree but then again he is pretty good at this stuff.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMcuZiOYPec

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:24 pm

Here's a better look of the initial capture of Matthew from that trough in the Gulf. It's fairly sharp, and the ridge developing over the eastern third of the US pushed it south.

HURRICANE MATTHEW - Page 25 Gfs_pv355K_watl_11

HURRICANE MATTHEW - Page 25 Gfs_pv355K_watl_11

Then what gives him the NW movement is the momentum from the trough captures and an expanding WAR. The weakness on the western side of the WAR and the ridge over top the northeast allows northern movement (rising air). What that trough in the Midwest does will determine whether a hook left occurs.

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:26 pm

amugs wrote:OH NELLLIEEEEEEE

STEERING WINGS ALOFT

what does this mean?..trying to understand... Smile

does it mean it will push it more west and south?

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:31 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Here's a better look of the initial capture of Matthew from that trough in the Gulf. It's fairly sharp, and the ridge developing over the eastern third of the US pushed it south.

Then what gives him the NW movement is the momentum from the trough captures and an expanding WAR. The weakness on the western side of the WAR and the ridge over top the northeast allows northern movement (rising air). What that trough in the Midwest does will determine whether a hook left occurs.

for some reason your maps are not showing up

by **nutleyblizzard** Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:44 pm

Latest recon reported pressure has dropped to 940mbs.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:47 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Here's a better look of the initial capture of Matthew from that trough in the Gulf. It's fairly sharp, and the ridge developing over the eastern third of the US pushed it south.

Then what gives him the NW movement is the momentum from the trough captures and an expanding WAR. The weakness on the western side of the WAR and the ridge over top the northeast allows northern movement (rising air). What that trough in the Midwest does will determine whether a hook left occurs.

for some reason your maps are not showing up

Fixed

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:59 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Here's a better look of the initial capture of Matthew from that trough in the Gulf. It's fairly sharp, and the ridge developing over the eastern third of the US pushed it south.

Then what gives him the NW movement is the momentum from the trough captures and an expanding WAR. The weakness on the western side of the WAR and the ridge over top the northeast allows northern movement (rising air). What that trough in the Midwest does will determine whether a hook left occurs.

for some reason your maps are not showing up

Fixed

Thank you

by **Sanchize06** Fri Sep 30, 2016 10:58 pm

11 PM Update: Now a Cat 5! Winds up to 160 mph, pressure down to 941mb

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Sep 30, 2016 10:58 pm

MATTHEW IS NOW A CATEGORY FIVE as of 11PM!!!

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Sep 30, 2016 10:59 pm

Matthew is a category 5, first in Atlantic since 2007

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:00 pm

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 72.3W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:01 pm

woweee

.MATTHEW BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC SINCE FELIX IN 2007...
11:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 30
Location: 13.3°N 72.3°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 941 mb
Max sustained: 160 mph

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