Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:43 am

SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:These are also the first runs with the high tech balloons from the NWS. Interesting.

Really, good, where did you know that from? Mugs your boy is coming! watch tomorrows runs be back to a hit.

Specifically, 22 dropsonde's worth of extra data. The world waits for Euro with baited breath.

Oy,I will have to wait till I wake up to see, or maybe ill get up, my daughter is sick again so we are not sleeping anyways. And I just got over being sick, it is a circle of sickness here...

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:44 am

Frank_Wx wrote:These are also the first runs with the high tech balloons from the NWS. Interesting.

does that mean that the euro will ha e the balloon info too?

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:44 am

Madonne. 00z UKIE

by **Snow88** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:45 am

0z Ukie

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 26 Rgxlc3

by **Joe Snow** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:45 am

It looks like some of the north eastern areas of Canada will get snow from Matthew.

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:46 am

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:These are also the first runs with the high tech balloons from the NWS. Interesting.

Really, good, where did you know that from? Mugs your boy is coming! watch tomorrows runs be back to a hit.

Specifically, 22 dropsonde's worth of extra data. The world waits for Euro with baited breath.

Oy,I will have to wait till I wake up to see, or maybe ill get up, my daughter is sick again so we are not sleeping anyways. And I just got over being sick, it is a circle of sickness here...

Sorry to hear that.you should get some rest not long since your surgery...

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:47 am

Exact track on the UKIE

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 26 Ct0TKEUWEAAVYp5

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:47 am

Is the Ukie west? I do not recall last run, your guys enthusiasm makes me guess its way west. Do you know how long this thread is gonna be lol.

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:49 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Madonne. 00z UKIE

It doesnt go out further? Would this be a hit on the area if it did?

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:51 am

OT: congrats Jman on your new title. Any member who hits 10,000 post count gets promoted to "VIP" and is tagged 4 stars.

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:51 am

Not sure if you saw but 12z JMA was a big hit but a bit east still.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:52 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Madonne. 00z UKIE

It doesnt go out further? Would this be a hit on the area if it did?

Nope, goes out to 144 hours. Probably would be GFS-like. And the UKIE has continuously shown a hit. Has been going into FL.

by snowlover 12345 Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:53 am

someone has to develop a better way to track these storms. these models going back and forth are no way. u go crazy like this

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:53 am

Frank_Wx wrote:OT: congrats Jman on your new title. Any member who hits 10,000 post count gets promoted to "VIP" and is tagged 4 stars.

LOL, well jesus I did not even really look to see where it was at, sorry i am a chatter box. : )

Oh thats a big change on ukie from FL to OBX!

by **Joe Snow** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:57 am

What does 500 posts get you?

Never mind I see it I am a vet cheers

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:57 am

Question at 925mb level in a hurricane how much do those winds translate to at the surface?

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:00 am

00z GFS winds. Just offshore, maybe TS force along shore and just inland. With all that rain too would be nothing to spit at as frank said lol

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 26 Gfsne_20

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 26 Gfsne_20

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:00 am

How,mush longer to Euro..it's 3 hrs past my bed time....

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:03 am

Wow, 120kt+ 925mb winds, cape gets it pretty good, this is not far off from a major hurricane for the area as stated wow, well GN. maybe ill get up for Euro, when does it initialize at night I forgot.

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 26 Gfsne_21

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 26 Gfsne_21

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:07 am

GFS is roughly a benchmark track, I dont expect this to be nailed down until its off the EC...

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:07 am

Went to my office for the cheat sheet 130 jman

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:13 am

CMC is further west than it has been in a while. Me thinks if the storm doesnt slow near the Carolinas (which would be unusual, as tropical systems gain latitude, they typically speed up, not the opposite, which makes me suspect of the EURO/CMC doing this) then I would expect a further north solution and a closer pass to our region. Time will tell what it will decide to do. Currently, back moving NW and appears to be trying to wobble W of 75w again.

by **Snow88** Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:14 am

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:14 am

In fact, the eye seems to be crawling towards 15n/75w

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:18 am

Snow what model is thst. Kinda fuzzy is thst direct hit or just offshore?

by njwx7 Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:21 am

jmanley32 wrote:Snow what model is thst. Kinda fuzzy is thst direct hit or just offshore?

That's the Navgem...hard to see if it was a direct hit

by **Snow88** Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:22 am

jmanley32 wrote:Snow what model is thst. Kinda fuzzy is thst direct hit or just offshore?

Navgem

It slams into Cape cod

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