Long Range Thread 13.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
and the cmc has the first wave....
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
What would be more beneficial for a Roidzilla- to see northern stream phasing, or the 500mb low close off on its own?
dsix85- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
algae888 wrote:and the cmc has the first wave....
Snow map. It does NOT have wave 2.
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
12z GFS snow map. If this happened, those people in the south would lock themselves in their basements. If you saw the movie "Purge" I can see something like that playing out the night before the snowstorm.
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
What would be more beneficial for a Roidzilla- to see northern stream phasing, or the 500mb low close off on its own?
dsix85- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Unfortunately there is a very real possibility that we get skunked while the cold air is in place and wind up with very little snow. I'm hoping for the best.
Last edited by hyde345 on Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:50 am; edited 1 time in total
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Frank_Wx wrote:12z GFS snow map. If this happened, those people in the south would lock themselves in their basements. If you saw the movie "Purge" I can see something like that playing out the night before the snowstorm.
Haha, schools will be closed for 2 months.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
dsix85 wrote:What would be more beneficial for a Roidzilla- to see northern stream phasing, or the 500mb low close off on its own?
Northern stream phasing. The latter would be more Godzilla IMO.
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Frank_Wx wrote:12z GFS snow map. If this happened, those people in the south would lock themselves in their basements. If you saw the movie "Purge" I can see something like that playing out the night before the snowstorm.
12 inches of snow would paralyze Atlanta, 5 inches brought them to their knees several years ago. Lots of family down there so I know firsthand.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Frank here's my own personal assessment on this potential event. I'm not buying into this possible "southern slider" track. Too many times these big ticket winter storms have started as a miss to the south only to trend to the north in future runs. I believe if we were to get shafted from this storm, the cause would be that the 2nd wave was too strung out like the latest CMC shows. Right now we have to continue to follow the ensembles. If the EURO continues to trend towards a more consolidated system I'll be very encouraged even if it shows a miss at this current time.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
The 250mb jet streak shows that this storm will come North. Not buying the southern track at this time. Also we are in a good spot imo atm
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
gefs are wet for sat/ sun wave 2...
12z
6z
12z
6z
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
THE GEFS ARE INSANE
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
I was just about to post those maps myself. BIG SHIFT WEST!!!algae888 wrote:gefs are wet for sat/ sun wave 2...
12z
6z
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Are the individual GEFS available anywhere free?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Oh yeah. When you have .75 accumulated precip over parts of the area with a smoothed out ensemble run this far out in time, that's a head turner. I can imagine there's some individual monster hits. Looking towards the EURO we don't need to see a blizzard on this run. As long as there's continued improvements with the upper levels/surface maps with the 12z run that will be an encouraging sign. Trends!!!Frank_Wx wrote:THE GEFS ARE INSANE
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Still early in the run but EURO is not separating the energy. I would not expect much this run.Â
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
GEFS
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
EURO vs. GFS. Me on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx/status/815984215418425344
https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx/status/815984215418425344
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Alot are mises, but man some of those big ones are roidzillas I imagine, does it matter that it appears there are more misses than major hits?Frank_Wx wrote:GEFS
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Frank_Wx wrote:EURO vs. GFS. Me on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx/status/815984215418425344
Which are you feeling is the right solution or still too early for you to make that educated decision?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
jmanley32 wrote:Alot are mises, but man some of those big ones are roidzillas I imagine, does it matter that it appears there are more misses than major hits?Frank_Wx wrote:GEFS
But they are misses to the north and not off the southeast coast.
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
jmanley32 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:EURO vs. GFS. Me on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx/status/815984215418425344
Which are you feeling is the right solution or still too early for you to make that educated decision?
Unfortunately GFS is an outlier. I am curious to see the EURO Ensembles.
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
What do you think Frank does the EURO or GFS have the right idea? I thought the GFS have been standing on top lately if we look back at the last storm?
jrollins628- Posts : 38
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
jrollins628 wrote:What do you think Frank does the EURO or GFS have the right idea? I thought the GFS have been standing on top lately if we look back at the last storm?
be careful when u say that
Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
jrollins628 wrote:What do you think Frank does the EURO or GFS have the right idea? I thought the GFS have been standing on top lately if we look back at the last storm?
I think until these upper level short waves are properly sampled by the models, not any one scenario can be taken seriously. Which means we have to wait until Wednesday morning 12z runs. The Canadian model has an even different solution aloft. So literally no agreement anywhere.
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