January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:OH MY CANADA

what are you singing too, you just said theres too much of a warm nose.  I am confused, is it showing the possibility of more likely frozen precip?

For the coast there is at 700 for anything frozen. That's what this was in response to haha sorry for the confusion.

I am sorry so a warm nose is a bad thing to get frozen precip right? Or is it a good thing? Sorry for the questions, the upper dynamics are still somewhat hard for me to understand thats why ur a met and im not lol

Can we digress regarding frozen precip on the coast?? Lol, as much as WE ALL want this to be what it is SUPPOSE to be in January, it ain't happening. Now what's up with the winds? What did the RGEM show? We should be watching SRM's at this point.

Painted Post is about 70 miles west of Binghamton on I-86.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:OH MY CANADA

what are you singing too, you just said theres too much of a warm nose.  I am confused, is it showing the possibility of more likely frozen precip?

For the coast there is at 700 for anything frozen. That's what this was in response to haha sorry for the confusion.

I am sorry so a warm nose is a bad thing to get frozen precip right? Or is it a good thing? Sorry for the questions, the upper dynamics are still somewhat hard for me to understand thats why ur a met and im not lol

No worries!! Haha I'm glad you have questions!! A warm nose isn't bad AS LONG AS it's not a nose that's above freezing. In this case, it's warmer than freezing and is bad. Technically, there is always a warm nose because of the warm air advection, but it's usually only brought up that way when the air is above freezing.

track17 wrote:This is no different then any storm the jersey shore sees two or 3 times a year.

nds
Jersey shore sees 2 or 3 nor'easters a year? With 60mph winds? Cause I dont remember a nor'easter for a few years now...but yeah...good analysis.

Jman, see where I circled in white? There is a warm nose, temps are along the bottom, mbs on left...sorry it's a little blurry

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:OH MY CANADA

what are you singing too, you just said theres too much of a warm nose.  I am confused, is it showing the possibility of more likely frozen precip?

For the coast there is at 700 for anything frozen. That's what this was in response to haha sorry for the confusion.

I am sorry so a warm nose is a bad thing to get frozen precip right? Or is it a good thing? Sorry for the questions, the upper dynamics are still somewhat hard for me to understand thats why ur a met and im not lol

Can we digress regarding frozen precip on the coast?? Lol, as much as WE ALL want this to be what it is SUPPOSE to be in January, it ain't happening. Now what's up with the winds? What did the RGEM show? We should be watching SRM's at this point.

I am on mobile so cannot post pictures or look at all guidance, but I'm sure the winds are still there, especially for the coast, but if this is an actual east trend then the winds will be less than they are currently looking especially for the interior. Precipitation would also likely be less if the system is further east than currently modeled.

Wow aresian you are all the way out there, how far south of aauburn are u my sister lives there.

About 70 miles southwest of Auburn.

Dunnzoo wrote:Jman, see where I circled in white? There is a warm nose, temps are along the bottom, mbs on left...sorry it's a little blurry

This is great!! Jman, see how the green (dew point) and red (temperature) lines start at the bottom (surface) then slant upward to the left but then quickly turn and are almost horizontal at about 900 hPa? That's an inversion, so basically any winds above that inversion WILL NOT mix down, but below likely will. So, if you take the 925 hPa winds from this model, then that will give you at least a decent approximation of the potential wind gusts. Sustained speeds I would take roughly 50-60%.

devsman wrote:

track17 wrote:This is no different then any storm the jersey shore sees two or 3 times a year.

nds
Jersey shore sees 2 or 3 nor'easters a year? With 60mph winds? Cause I dont remember a nor'easter for a few years now...but yeah...good analysis.

Void

rb924119 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:OH MY CANADA

what are you singing too, you just said theres too much of a warm nose.  I am confused, is it showing the possibility of more likely frozen precip?

For the coast there is at 700 for anything frozen. That's what this was in response to haha sorry for the confusion.

I am sorry so a warm nose is a bad thing to get frozen precip right? Or is it a good thing? Sorry for the questions, the upper dynamics are still somewhat hard for me to understand thats why ur a met and im not lol

Can we digress regarding frozen precip on the coast?? Lol, as much as WE ALL want this to be what it is SUPPOSE to be in January, it ain't happening. Now what's up with the winds? What did the RGEM show? We should be watching SRM's at this point.

I am on mobile so cannot post pictures or look at all guidance, but I'm sure the winds are still there, especially for the coast, but if this is an actual east trend then the winds will be less than they are currently looking especially for the interior. Precipitation would also likely be less if the system is further east than currently modeled.

Thanks, RB! I hope you see some frozen stuff out of this! :-)

rb924119 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:Jman, see where I circled in white? There is a warm nose, temps are along the bottom, mbs on left...sorry it's a little blurry

This is great!! Jman, see how the green (dew point) and red (temperature) lines start at the bottom (surface) then slant upward to the left but then quickly turn and are almost horizontal at about 900 hPa? That's an inversion, so basically any winds above that inversion WILL NOT mix down, but below likely will. So, if you take the 925 hPa winds from this model, then that will give you at least a decent approximation of the potential wind gusts. Sustained speeds I would take roughly 50-60%.

oh great inversion, there goes the winds, so what model is this and where are the 925mb winds? Yes the SR models still show very trong winds, I am not thinking theres any reason to think they are any diff than before at this point.

Soul RGEM was much colder and showed a March 1984 skeetfest.

Waves for Jersey coast 20' plus with a due easterly fetch yes your run of the mill storm. Syo and Track this is a dynamic storm fir the 3rd time. SR models like Hi Res Nam and it's suite along with RGEM are showing a serious dynamic storm. 12 plus hours of sustained tropical force winds with 65 plus mph gusts winds and a moderate surge is something we can't handle period. Our infrastructure is not built for such. 

dunzoo sending you a PM.

Look I am sorry but have to disagree have lived at the shore 30 plus years these type of storms we can handle. I hope I am correct if I am wrong I will admit it.

amugs wrote:Soul RGEM was much colder and showed a March 1984 skeetfest.

Waves for Jersey coast 20' plus with a due easterly fetch yes your run of the mill storm. Syo and Track this is a dynamic storm fir the 3rd time. SR models like Hi Res Nam and it's suite along with RGEM are showing a serious dynamic storm. 12 plus hours of sustained tropical force winds with 65 plus mph gusts winds and a moderate surge is something we can't handle period. Our infrastructure is not built for such. 

Wow. Thanks Mugs. Def going to be some moderate coastal flooding. I'm surprised there aren't any coastal flood advisories up yet..? Isn't the New Moon Monday night?

amugs wrote:Soul RGEM was much colder and showed a March 1984 skeetfest.

Waves for Jersey coast 20' plus with a due easterly fetch yes your run of the mill storm. Syo and Track this is a dynamic storm fir the 3rd time. SR models like Hi Res Nam and it's suite along with RGEM are showing a serious dynamic storm. 12 plus hours of sustained tropical force winds with 65 plus mph gusts winds and a moderate surge is something we can't handle period. Our infrastructure is not built for such. 

Can't argue with any of that, good to see ya mugs, looks like go bit choppy out on those waters jeeze, I think winds are still fully on track for jersey short NYC area and LI/CT shore.

amugs wrote:Soul RGEM was much colder and showed a March 1984 skeetfest.

Waves for Jersey coast 20' plus with a due easterly fetch yes your run of the mill storm. Syo and Track this is a dynamic storm fir the 3rd time. SR models like Hi Res Nam and it's suite along with RGEM are showing a serious dynamic storm. 12 plus hours of sustained tropical force winds with 65 plus mph gusts winds and a moderate surge is something we can't handle period. Our infrastructure is not built for such. 

Offshore they will be, but inshore they won't. Likely 8-10 (low end) up to 14-16 high end. The water is too shallow with not enough surge along the immediate coast with this storm to get them much bigger.

track17 wrote:Look I am sorry but have to disagree have lived at the shore 30 plus years these type of storms we can handle. I hope I am correct if I am wrong I will admit it.

track I never insulted you, if you consider insulting having a disagreement about something then I dunno what to tell you. Your right im not from the jersey shore but a lot of people on here are and have stated storms like this, as mugs just said are going to batter the beaches, will you and all of us survive, of course but its going to do some damage. How much we have to wait and see.  I am sorry I laughed at devs comment. Lets move on and any banter we can discuss in banter section k, no hard feelings my man.

I was mainly talking about devsman comment. My reaction was wrong and I am sorry. All he seems to look to do is insult rather then inform. If he thought different he could give an analysis but I am just being honest I have seen many storms of this nature in my 30 plus years at the shore so it does not scare me, now if we were talking storm surge that would be different.

track17 wrote:I was mainly talking about devsman comment. My reaction was wrong and I am sorry. All he seems to look to do is insult rather then inform. If he thought different he could give an analysis but I am just being honest I have seen many storms of this nature in my 30 plus years at the shore so it does not scare me, now if we were talking storm surge that would be different.

Well we are talking storm surge of 3-4 feet per NWS last statement, so not coming from experience i dunno if thats enough to cause problems or not. I used to live on LI sound in CT and 3-4 feet would flood our marina and the two resturants.

3-4 feet usually does not do much by me other then some water in the roads

track17 wrote:3-4 feet usually does not do much by me other then some water in the roads

remember too the prolonged winds (yes I know they may or may not be as strong as modeled) will be onshore for a very long time so that surge may be compunded, plus its also a new moon i believe, just informing you, you know best how to prepare down there, only preparations I can make is to not park my car under a tree lol

Latest UKMET came in colder now too. H5 looked a little better, although only marginally. Winds likely still an issue, and 1.5-2.5" liquid equivalent region-wide.

you are def correct and I may not be worried but will def keep an eye on things and def prepare if needed

Well I am off tomorrow and to bed shortly, wont be on the computer so probably will not be posting any maps, just posts mobile till monday so please everyone post wind snow rain maps until this storm is upon us, then we nowcast.

00z RGEM