January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Winds advisories taken down for NNJ and LHV uggghhh. Why can't they EVER work out. Frustrating.

Skins you were right the winds have picked up...and it is raining really heavy right now we got almost a quarter of an inch of rain in the last 20 min..

Ugg, still pouring rain here

This storm has the potential to go a LONG way to help ease the drought. 3"of qpf. in whatever form up in the reservoirs is a Godsend. As far as the winds go thankfully they were very disappointing and busted low, especially up here on LI. The poor Jersey shore folks should be livid that the dunes were'nt built, and any resident who fought against them being built up should be denied flood insurance.

amugs wrote:Winds advisories taken down for NNJ and LHV uggghhh. Why can't they EVER work out. Frustrating.

I get the frustration it's always fascinating to watch, but I like having electricity too.

30.2 and freezing rain now with some occasional sleet. What a bummer this storm is.

Barring a late rally, the NAM whiffed on my area. Still just a cold rain here.

Well since everyone else is complaining here and not in banter I will just say one more thing. Why are we even bothering to continue to talk about this so called storm, it doesnt merit storm mode anymore IMO and its just a good dose of rain and i guess some white or ice up north, a stinky storm and ye frank it can go to HELL!

I do have to give credit where credit is due even though the jersey shore does look like it had some damage though not anything like sandy or irene. Track (user) had it right with the winds and most everything else he said, so kudos my man (though I wish you had been wrong).

it is not snow so not as impressive to watch but the sleet keeps coming. If I get a inch plus of this stuff I will be impressed. So far me still something to watch. Aiannone I don't know how you are getting rain while I get sleet further west and south. As a metrology student do you have an answer.

I'm confused. Gusts reached 60mph today along the JS and 40 to 50mph almost everywhere else. Over 2 inches of rain will fall. Areas supposed to see sleet accumulation are getting it as we speak. And as I type this I still hear howling winds outside. Not one single element of this storm busted. Not one.

TheAresian wrote:Barring a late rally, the NAM whiffed on my area. Still just a cold rain here.

Ouch. Luckily I never liked the idea of snow for this storm. Some models were showing over 4 inches of snow even in PA. Has PA seen any accumulation anywhere? Assuming no if you're still raining.

Frank_Wx wrote:I'm confused. Gusts reached 60mph today along the JS and 40 to 50mph almost everywhere else. Over 2 inches of rain will fall. Areas supposed to see sleet accumulation are getting it as we speak. And as I type this I still hear howling winds outside. Not one single element of this storm busted. Not one.

Only thing is the NAM had frozen precip further south than where it is...doesn't sound like it is accumulating anywhere in NJ...still waiting until all is said and done, but the soundings from the nam may be right. Don't know why they didn't match the snow/sleet maps...

Your right from an area wide perspective Frank, I got verification that southern westchester did not see super high winds like the HWW had suggested and we never saw any sleet ( but u made sure to emphasize it wasn't likely) so yeah you did a good job and it was high impact to SOME areas. It did bust in some places, NWS said expect widespread power outages here so i prepared for that, barely high 3 figures for the entire coned area, i hardly call that widespread but thats not on you you said scattered and thats better, it was more isolated though here and in NYC. Thanks for pointing this out, it actually makes me feel a bit better.

This is wild. Don't undermine the storm because you still have power. Flooding is being reported across parts of NNJ and especially JS.

29.8 and it continues to sleet and temperature continues to drop. Just went outside and over an inch of sleet now. A Weird site, if this were snow I bet I'd be looking at 4-5 inches already.

Damn, but still better than freezing rain.

I do think the winds largely verified in NJ. The winds this afternoon where I work were rattling the buildings to the extent that I heard several people at various points saying "was that the wind?" - which is not typical in a large sturdy structure. It wasn't like Sandy, but it wasn't forecast to be. I don't think 70 mph winds SUSTAINED were ever forecast. Just the occasional gusts. It does appear maybe some areas north and east of NJ didn't get as much wind, I guess?

Dunnzoo wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:I'm confused. Gusts reached 60mph today along the JS and 40 to 50mph almost everywhere else. Over 2 inches of rain will fall. Areas supposed to see sleet accumulation are getting it as we speak. And as I type this I still hear howling winds outside. Not one single element of this storm busted. Not one.

Only thing is the NAM had frozen precip further south than where it is...doesn't sound like it is accumulating anywhere in NJ...still waiting until all is said and done, but the soundings from the nam may be right. Don't know why they didn't match the snow/sleet maps...

It could still happen overnight, as NAM suggested, but frozen precip with this system was never going to be easy to come by. I've tried to stress that in posts dating back to last week. However, I thought parts of NW NJ are seeing sleet? I've seen reports.on here from some members.

Frank_Wx wrote:

TheAresian wrote:Barring a late rally, the NAM whiffed on my area. Still just a cold rain here.

Ouch. Luckily I never liked the idea of snow for this storm. Some models were showing over 4 inches of snow even in PA. Has PA seen any accumulation anywhere? Assuming no if you're still raining.

It happens. Some peculiar geography here. The mountains that cause the Miller Bs keep a lot of snow away, plus living in a valley means the higher elevations of other parts of the Adirondack plateau get more frozen precip that the lower lying areas.

jmanley32 wrote:Your right from an area wide perspective Frank, I got verification that southern westchester did not see super high winds like the HWW had suggested and we never saw any sleet ( but u made sure to emphasize it wasn't likely) so yeah you did a good job and it was high impact to SOME areas.  It did bust in some places, NWS said expect widespread power outages here so i prepared for that, barely high 3 figures for the entire coned area, i hardly call that widespread but thats not on you you said scattered and thats better, it was more isolated though here and in NYC.  Thanks for pointing this out, it actually makes me feel a bit better.

The thing with winds is you have to have a mechanism for them to translate to the surface. This system was the first one that I can remember, not tropical related, that successfully did that on a grand scheme. Given the difficulty in forecasting winds I think this was largely a success. Winds wouldn't gust in excess every waking minute of the day. Physically impossible. Even in a hurricane.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:29.8 and it continues to sleet and temperature continues to drop. Just went outside and over an inch of sleet now. A Weird site, if this were snow I bet I'd be looking at 4-5 inches already.

Damn, but still better than freezing rain.

Wow, you may approach 2 inches of sleet but likely 1.5

billg315 wrote:I do think the winds largely verified in NJ. The winds this afternoon where I work were rattling the buildings to the extent that I heard several people at various points saying "was that the wind?" - which is not typical in a large sturdy structure. It wasn't like Sandy, but it wasn't forecast to be. I don't think 70 mph winds SUSTAINED were ever forecast. Just the occasional gusts. It does appear maybe some areas north and east of NJ didn't get as much wind, I guess?

Correct.

Frank_Wx wrote:I'm confused. Gusts reached 60mph today along the JS and 40 to 50mph almost everywhere else. Over 2 inches of rain will fall. Areas supposed to see sleet accumulation are getting it as we speak. And as I type this I still hear howling winds outside. Not one single element of this storm busted. Not one.

Storm did not bust. It over performed. I have been getting sleet where it was supposed to be rain and so have my friends in Connecticut. This storm is colder N and W then most models showed.

Frank_Wx wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:I'm confused. Gusts reached 60mph today along the JS and 40 to 50mph almost everywhere else. Over 2 inches of rain will fall. Areas supposed to see sleet accumulation are getting it as we speak. And as I type this I still hear howling winds outside. Not one single element of this storm busted. Not one.

Only thing is the NAM had frozen precip further south than where it is...doesn't sound like it is accumulating anywhere in NJ...still waiting until all is said and done, but the soundings from the nam may be right. Don't know why they didn't match the snow/sleet maps...

It could still happen overnight, as NAM suggested, but frozen precip with this system was never going to be easy to come by. I've tried to stress that in posts dating back to last week. However, I thought parts of NW NJ are seeing sleet? I've seen reports.on here from some members.

That's why I was tracking the nam's soundings the last couple days. There was always a warm layer at the 850's, but those maps kept showing accumulating frozen precip. I think the changeover was going to be really early Tuesday morning. As of now, my temp has leveled off at 36°, and heavy rain. I'm sure I'll be up for a while, see if we change over....

Everytime I step outside I say I wouldn't want to be the guy who has to shovel this. Then I remember I'm that guy back to my beer. What time will the precipitation be most intense?

Dunnzoo wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:I'm confused. Gusts reached 60mph today along the JS and 40 to 50mph almost everywhere else. Over 2 inches of rain will fall. Areas supposed to see sleet accumulation are getting it as we speak. And as I type this I still hear howling winds outside. Not one single element of this storm busted. Not one.

Only thing is the NAM had frozen precip further south than where it is...doesn't sound like it is accumulating anywhere in NJ...still waiting until all is said and done, but the soundings from the nam may be right. Don't know why they didn't match the snow/sleet maps...

It could still happen overnight, as NAM suggested, but frozen precip with this system was never going to be easy to come by. I've tried to stress that in posts dating back to last week. However, I thought parts of NW NJ are seeing sleet? I've seen reports.on here from some members.

That's why I was tracking the nam's soundings the last couple days. There was always a warm layer at the 850's, but those maps kept showing accumulating frozen precip. I think the changeover was going to be really early Tuesday morning. As of now, my temp has leveled off at 36°, and heavy rain. I'm sure I'll be up for a while, see if we change over....

Soundings are the gift of god.

2004blackwrx wrote:Everytime I step outside I say I wouldn't want to be the guy who has to shovel this. Then I remember I'm that guy back to my beer. What time will the precipitation be most intense?

Haha, uhm a steady stream off the ocean is expected for another few hours. Will vary between moderate and heavy

I'll also say this, it is dumping rain outside and has been since about 5 pm. And the radar shows no break in store. I can't wait to see the rain totals statewide tomorrow because they should be impressive. Also I'm still getting the occasional strong wind gust.

33 degrees in Franklin, Sussex County, NJ, almost 4 hours now of straight sleet...about a couple inches of it.

Chris3379 wrote:33 degrees in Franklin, Sussex County, NJ, almost 4 hours now of straight sleet...about a couple inches of it.

Sweet, was looking for someone from Sussex to report. Thank you.