Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[billg315]

From a totally selfish point of view I'd rather get a big storm next Thursday night, rather than Monday anyway. So that's the one I'll be pulling for.

Also from a selfish point of view I am as far S&E as any on this board so a little tweak for Monday and I may get to measure something.  So I'm pulling for both.  

I'll compromise. Monday storm drops a non-disruptive covering of snow on me but jackpots over LI. Then Thursday the storm dumps two feet on everyone. haha

[Joe Snow]

From a totally selfish point of view I'd rather get a big storm next Thursday night, rather than Monday anyway. So that's the one I'll be pulling for.

Also from a selfish point of view I am as far S&E as any on this board so a little tweak for Monday and I may get to measure something.  So I'm pulling for both.  

I'll compromise. Monday storm drops a non-disruptive covering of snow on me but jackpots over LI.  Then Thursday the storm dumps two feet on everyone. haha

Monday's storm look intense up North just a tick south and whamo.........Jackpot long Island..........

[rb924119]

I just took a quick peek at Monday's system, which I didn't even know was there because I was so wrapped up in today's system for the last several days, BUT BASED ON MY VERY QUICK PERUSAL THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LONG FROM DEAD FOR OUR REGION IMHO!!! HOLY HOT D@MN!!!! We may not see the largest numbers, but I think at least some of us may have a legitimate shot at more accumulating snowfall

RB what are your thoughts on the potential storm late next week?

.....THERES A THURSDAY STORM TOO?!!! I need 24 hours to get back up to speed lol btw, I really like the look of the NAM for Monday, although I think further adjustments could happen.

[Vinnydula]

What does it look like

[amugs]

I just took a quick peek at Monday's system, which I didn't even know was there because I was so wrapped up in today's system for the last several days, BUT BASED ON MY VERY QUICK PERUSAL THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LONG FROM DEAD FOR OUR REGION IMHO!!! HOLY HOT D@MN!!!! We may not see the largest numbers, but I think at least some of us may have a legitimate shot at more accumulating snowfall

RB what are your thoughts on the potential storm late next week?

.....THERES A THURSDAY STORM TOO?!!! I need 24 hours to get back up to speed lol btw, I really like the look of the NAM for Monday, although I think further adjustments could happen.

Yo kid get some rest we are going full throttle the next 10-15 days here maybe longer
Here is the para for next week lots of time and we phase in the SE and this could rival many prolific east coast snow storms IMO

[Guest]

Talk about bombing out!!!

[skinsfan1177]

Ok guys I'm ready to track the next one well next Thursday timeframe. What are we looking at keep hearing the setup looks great but it's also a ways out their. How important is the clipper Monday to hep out the next one? Also how do the Tele look.

[Guest]

SCI index dropped. Can't be good.

[track17]

Skins is there any chance for this one to be cold enough because the temps look real bad for awhile

[skinsfan1177]

Skins is there any chance for this one to be cold enough because the temps look real bad for awhile

We can't look at temps this far out. From what I here from this board and others is Thursday next week has good potential.

[jake732]

skinns, the gfs is showing nadda. lets hope it brings up a signal soon. i think euro has something

[skinsfan1177]

skinns, the gfs is showing nadda. lets hope it brings up a signal soon. i think euro has something

Euro has it mugs posted 500 mb as well it looks good things can change

[dsix85]

Euro looks to have a large storm by day 6/7

[Armando Salvadore]

Next week's potential is going to have to have a few things happen to work ; This upcoming next system sunday night/Monday looks to affect primarily SNE to Maine with maybe eastern LI getting in on some action, don't really think our area has a good chance of receiving something next to significant. Still a progressive flow overall. Now, next week, we're going to be seeing another jet extension thanks to the MJO propagation and Siberian high descending. So, the support from a robust MJO coherent wave will allow for an opportunity, and this appears to be quite the anomalous wave structure we'll be dealing with here. I mean, just about +2 standard deviations in intensity heading into phase 8, which is a rather intriguing. Wonder how long the convection will sustain, or what happens thereafter. Anyway, going back to the jet extension, you're going to see a split flow occur next week with the STJ kickstarting. So, this upcoming system is one key player into setting up a blocking/50/50 low situation, which may induce greenland ridging, although ensembles are showing more of an east based. Another thing is you have to watch that western ridge from the zonal pacific jet and see where the ridge positions, do we see it knock down, push east resulting in a "kicking" solution, or its intensity, and etc. You need the polar and southern jet to either phase, or interact. Right now, guidance seems like it wants to speed up the polar s/w and then kick out the southern energy and it's too late for anything significant. However, i believe we'll see different solutions pan out as we approach this timeframe (16th or so) and especially once we see this next storm manifest, and altering the northern atlantic.

[sroc4]

Next week's potential is going to have to have a few things happen to work ; This upcoming next system sunday night/Monday looks to affect primarily SNE to Maine with maybe eastern LI getting in on some action, don't really think our area has a good chance of receiving something next to significant. Still a progressive flow overall. Now, next week, we're going to be seeing another jet extension thanks to the MJO propagation and Siberian high descending. So, the support from a robust MJO coherent wave will allow for an opportunity, and this appears to be quite the anomalous wave structure we'll be dealing with here. I mean, just about +2 standard deviations in intensity heading into phase 8, which is a rather intriguing. Wonder how long the convection will sustain, or what happens thereafter. Anyway, going back to the jet extension, you're going to see a split flow occur next week with the STJ kickstarting. So, this upcoming system is one key player into setting up a blocking/50/50 low situation, which may induce greenland ridging, although ensembles are showing more of an east based. Another thing is you have to watch that western ridge from the zonal pacific jet and see where the ridge positions, do we see it knock down, push east resulting in a "kicking" solution, or its intensity, and etc. You need the polar and southern jet to either phase, or interact. Right now, guidance seems like it wants to speed up the polar s/w and then kick out the southern energy and it's too late for anything significant. However, i believe we'll see different solutions pan out as we approach this timeframe (16th or so) and especially once we see this next storm manifest, and altering the northern atlantic.

You beat me to the punch here Armando. Great summary. To reiterate what is said the MJO is so anomalous that just like yesterdays storm coming out of nowhere on the models, do not panic right now with the medium and LR looking B-9. As we transition from 7 into 8 the anomalous MJO pulse should once again affect the overall pattern. With phase 8 typically a stormy and troughy pattern in the east I expect the models to catch on eventually. The 13th is running out of time, but agree can still affect SNE and E LI. The 16th still offers promise, but as is outlined beautifully above we need to see some changes at H5 to bring it together...ie: slow the N s/w, and or more energy comes out in the SW. Right now the interactions between the two is weak at best. That has to change.

[Guest]

I'd say this has promise.

[nutleyblizzard]

I'd say this has promise.

EURO!!! Would love to see the snowmaps on this run! Even the GFS and CMC showed improvements aloft and at surface albeit slight. More sleepless nights may be in the works.

[SoulSingMG]

I'd say this has promise.

HUGE Euro run.

[devsman]

CMC didn't show last storm til 36 hours before. GFS will show this soon. Set-up looks amazing.

[algae888]

WOW euro. Ikie wasnt far off and cmc and gfs were improvements. Does anyone have Euro snow maps for Sunday Monday system and Wednesday Thursday system can you please post

[amugs]

EURO has a ncie phase over the TENN area

976 LP SE of LI


It SNOWS from 132 to 168 over NNJ, LHV and NYC on this run

Heaviest from 141 -156/60

Actually retrogrades into SE MASS

Nice H5 set up

Only 6 days away and 12 more runs here peeps.

H5
Look at teh phase happening - polar jet interacting with teh Southern Jet







PHASED over Tenn - thank you Jack Daniels

[skinsfan1177]

Question on Euro run hearing it was a big hit but will it be cold for the coast is the big question

[amugs]

Now for the up close and maps of precip

[amugs]

Skins coast may transition from rain to sleet to snow at this stage.

[SoulSingMG]

Lol @ Tennessee, Mugs.

Wouldn't a storm with a pressure THAT low pull in its own cold air causing snow to the coast?

[SNOW MAN]

Now for the up close and maps of precip

How will EPA do with this set up ?

[aiannone]

EURO gives me a decent event up here Sunday night after rain during the morning. GFS is much warmer and keeps me pretty much all rain aside from a few back-end snow showers.

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