Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[sroc4]

Nothing has changed from my point of view. As expected, model data transitioning in accordance with global forcing mechanisms tropospherically and stratospherically. At least one more snow event is on the table for the first half of March as the first real neg NAO of the season initiates in several days.

[Isotherm]

https://mobile.twitter.com/judah47/status/834770015656230912/photo/1

Both SSW displacements events over the past month have/will feature fairly rapid downward propagation of circulation anomalies, as evidenced by PCH.

[Isotherm]

https://mobile.twitter.com/judah47/status/834770015656230912/photo/1

Both SSW displacements events over the past month have/will feature fairly rapid downward propagation of circulation anomalies, as evidenced by PCH.

[jmanley32]

Nothing has changed from my point of view. As expected, model data transitioning in accordance with global forcing mechanisms tropospherically and stratospherically. At least one more snow event is on the table for the first half of March as the first real neg NAO of the season initiates in several days.

10 of them scott? LOL You would think a mega frankzilla was on the cusp.

[sroc4]

Nothing has changed from my point of view. As expected, model data transitioning in accordance with global forcing mechanisms tropospherically and stratospherically. At least one more snow event is on the table for the first half of March as the first real neg NAO of the season initiates in several days.

10 of them scott? LOL You would think  a mega frankzilla was on the cusp.

Admittedly I may have gotten carried away. lol 

[Frank_Wx]

It does look like it will get colder than what we've seen lately, but for the most part it looks like average temps with maybe a 2-3 day transient stretch of below normal beginning March 4th. There is a threat of potential snow event, albeit minor, between March 4th-5th and a bigger one could loom between the 7th-12th. We'll just watch for now.

An impressive -NAO block develops around March 2nd. The PV is on the wrong side of Canada (west), but colder air still flows into the east though it's on the moderated side. It is a good pattern for March standards but not one I am overly excited about.

[Snow88]

It does look like it will get colder than what we've seen lately, but for the most part it looks like average temps with maybe a 2-3 day transient stretch of below normal beginning March 4th. There is a threat of potential snow event, albeit minor, between March 4th-5th and a bigger one could loom between the 7th-12th. We'll just watch for now.

An impressive -NAO block develops around March 2nd. The PV is on the wrong side of Canada (west), but colder air still flows into the east though it's on the moderated side. It is a good pattern for March standards but not one I am overly excited about.

Not impressed? Favorable MJO, AO and NAO dropping, PNA rising with blocking.

Our 1st chance of snowfall will be next weekend and then we will have other chances. I am very excited. The other page is also excited ( you know which one ( lol

[Snow88]

Anthony Masiello‏

It sounds crazy but this could be the Mid Atlantic's best chance at snow all winter.

[Armando Salvadore]

Quite the robust looking -NAO for truly what it appears the first time this winter season, however, still wondering how much to an extent it verifies. Regarding Frank's statement, if you look at the H5 anomalies going into 2nd week of march, the main TPV actually rotates back towards northern Greenland as a weaker lobe breaks off towards SE Canada, but Frank is right, the bulk of the arctic air may still remain over central and western Canada. It just depends on what breaks off and what can protrude south. Still think we have a descent shot at something of interest between the 7th-13th or so as others have indicated, especially Tom. Robust MJO wave and a +MT coming again supports this, and also a split flow appears to be setting up.

[Math23x7]

The CPC's 8-14 day outlook is now pointing to guidance for below average temperatures. Unfortunately, it also points to it being dry during that time...

[Frank_Wx]

It does look like it will get colder than what we've seen lately, but for the most part it looks like average temps with maybe a 2-3 day transient stretch of below normal beginning March 4th. There is a threat of potential snow event, albeit minor, between March 4th-5th and a bigger one could loom between the 7th-12th. We'll just watch for now.

An impressive -NAO block develops around March 2nd. The PV is on the wrong side of Canada (west), but colder air still flows into the east though it's on the moderated side. It is a good pattern for March standards but not one I am overly excited about.

Not impressed? Favorable MJO, AO and NAO dropping, PNA rising with blocking.

Our 1st chance of snowfall will be next weekend and then we will have other chances. I am very excited. The other page is also excited ( you know which one ( lol

I meant not impressed for anything major. PV on the wrong side of the continent which enhances the risk of northern stream energy tracking to our west. I wish the NAO block was more west based.

[Frank_Wx]

Hopefully you're all making the most of the mild weather this week instead of tracking each model run for a fantasy winter storm. In middle to late January it became very obvious to me where the pattern wants to set up this winter. Over the western and mid U.S. Those areas have been clobbered with Arctic cold and snowfall, especially mountain ranges across the west. Even getting into the valleys some days. When I look at current models and what they show in the long range, it looks like much of the same.

Alright, so we have an MJO moving into favorable phases which looks to bring us a period of -NAO and possibly +PNA conditions. The problem persists that the Trop PV will stay over the western side of North America. While pieces of energy will break off the main PV and travel southeast to bring us cold shots, the alignment with the STJ is not there to bring us anything significant in my mind. The northern energy has had a tendency all winter to track west of us, so we're left with Arctic fronts that may try to develop a coastal off the coast. We've had favorably placed jet streaks and well timed Pacific energy track into our area once these fronts depart. That's essentially how we've gotten our snow this season.

Also, we've seen a few times this winter where the -NAO looks legit, but once the time period arrives it's either weak or too east based. In the upcoming pattern, knowing the PV will be in western Arctic/Canada, we need a moderate west based -NAO to prevent heights from rising ahead of the northern stream energy coming out of the PJ, or even the Pacific since it looks like the EPO will be positive.

Basically what I see is a return to normal or slightly below normal weather. Keep in mind once we enter March our daily normal highs are in the 40s. And I feel below normal temps will be transient as opposed to anything sustaining. I'm a believer in seeing snowflakes fly again before winter truly ends, but I'm not a believer in any significant storm event. Maybe a light event if we can see one of these northern stream events dig south enough to keep the baroclinic zone to our S&E. With the PNA spiking and NAO heading negative, that's probably our best bet. But everything seems to want to break down. My 2 cents...

[Frank_Wx]

Honestly not impressed at all with this Day10 look. Everything looks elongated. No true amplification.

[docstox12]

Hopefully you're all making the most of the mild weather this week instead of tracking each model run for a fantasy winter storm. In middle to late January it became very obvious to me where the pattern wants to set up this winter. Over the western and mid U.S. Those areas have been clobbered with Arctic cold and snowfall, especially mountain ranges across the west. Even getting into the valleys some days. When I look at current models and what they show in the long range, it looks like much of the same.

Alright, so we have an MJO moving into favorable phases which looks to bring us a period of -NAO and possibly +PNA conditions. The problem persists that the Trop PV will stay over the western side of North America. While pieces of energy will break off the main PV and travel southeast to bring us cold shots, the alignment with the STJ is not there to bring us anything significant in my mind. The northern energy has had a tendency all winter to track west of us, so we're left with Arctic fronts that may try to develop a coastal off the coast. We've had favorably placed jet streaks and well timed Pacific energy track into our area once these fronts depart. That's essentially how we've gotten our snow this season.

Also, we've seen a few times this winter where the -NAO looks legit, but once the time period arrives it's either weak or too east based. In the upcoming pattern, knowing the PV will be in western Arctic/Canada, we need a moderate west based -NAO to prevent heights from rising ahead of the northern stream energy coming out of the PJ, or even the Pacific since it looks like the EPO will be positive.

Basically what I see is a return to normal or slightly below normal weather. Keep in mind once we enter March our daily normal highs are in the 40s. And I feel below normal temps will be transient as opposed to anything sustaining. I'm a believer in seeing snowflakes fly again before winter truly ends, but I'm not a believer in any significant storm event. Maybe a light event if we can see one of these northern stream events dig south enough to keep the baroclinic zone to our S&E. With the PNA spiking and NAO heading negative, that's probably our best bet. But everything seems to want to break down. My 2 cents...

EXACTLY Frank! The North Central and Sierra Nevada's got pounded this winter as well as Northern new England.That was the pattern and once they are set, it's like in cement.Just my analog opinion.

[Snow88]

0z GFS time

[sroc4]

So I put together a composite of the last 4 yrs of SST anomalies.  Notice the strong "Blob" of warm SST anomalies in the GOA in 2014.  Slowly you can see how the cold pool off the coast of Japan has infiltrated East eroding he Blob over time, as well as the blob slowly circulating South.  Combine with ENSO etc you can see the Strong El Nino coming on from 2014-2016.  But currently the colder pool is all the way to the coast in the GOA.  JB points out an interesting proposition for next year.  If the cold pool cont to circulate and shift S along the coast into Nino region 1/2 it could lead to a cold pool in the eastern Trop Pac and the oncoming El Nino, (MAYBE), could be a Modeki type weak El Nino which is typically cold and snowy in the east.  I know I know long way off.  But the SST patterns play a huge role in the global pattern.    

[Frank_Wx]

I miss the blob. That's when life was good.

[Snow88]

GFS is clipper city

[jmanley32]

GFS is clipper city

im just go watch and see with the open mind that we have seen all our snow this year. if im wrong grwat, do not care for any nickle and dime events which i what frank said may be possible, imo big one or keep this weather up.

[dkodgis]

Yo! Look at the low forecast for next Fri night. Around here, 16 degrees. Tomorrow and the rest of the week, not much better. Take the ski coat back out.

[jmanley32]

Yo! Look at the low forecast for next Fri night. Around here, 16 degrees.  Tomorrow and the rest of the week, not much better. Take the ski coat back out.

i was speaking imby highs in 40s 50s all week.

[Math23x7]

So looking at the WABC forecast, the high/low next Saturday would be 38/27, six degrees below normal. People are going to act like it's a bitter cold snap. Two years ago, a day like that would be balmy. SMH.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Yo! Look at the low forecast for next Fri night. Around here, 16 degrees.  Tomorrow and the rest of the week, not much better. Take the ski coat back out.

i was speaking imby highs in 40s 50s all week.

It's just not realistic to think temperatures anywhere close to this can continue and if they did it's pretty scary. Spring in Late February is just insane.

[Snow88]

Period still looks favorable starting with a possible clipper next Friday. GFS shows 2-4 for NYC

There is another storm to watch for mid March but right now the models have it hitting SNE northward.

[dkodgis]

Frank, talking about The Blob, it may have been caused by ozone.
http://www.foxnews.com/science/2017/02/23/blob-in-pacific-ocean-linked-to-spike-in-ozone.html

[amugs]

Models barking at the High Latitude West NAO Block. Looks like from the end of this week through middle of the month then we go back to warmth.

[Dunnzoo]

Models barking at the High Latitude West NAO Block. Looks like from the end of this week through middle of the month then we go back to warmth.

Just need a small window of cold with incoming precip... staying hopeful we're not done yet. Pretty hard after a day like the last few!

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