Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[sroc4]

What should we be looking for in the models at this state?

Im off tomorrow.  If Frank or someone else doesn't beat me to it Ill try and do a write up regarding the clipper for Frid into Sat, which has more "potential" than a coating to an inch like the scroll says above.  2-4" to 3-6" max potential depedning on location. I stress potential because nothing is definite.  No snow at all is still quite possible.  I also will look at the 7-10th time frame as well which is quite interesting for a decent size event.  With the NAO region trending stronger dont be surprized to see the models start to trend towards a Miller B type set up.

[amugs]

GFS rules with northern stream system, EURO southern - snow is coming peeps.

[Frank_Wx]

I really hate being 'that' guy, but other then a clipper on Friday that is probably not to deliver much, I really do not like the look in the LR.

[frank 638]

frank i hate to say this the long range for any snow event sucks everytime we get cold temps it does not last for while .i am done with this winter bring on the spring and our yankees this winter was very depressing .

[Isotherm]

If there is no snow at all in this period it will be due to the deamplified heights out west via a poor Pacific. The Atlantic blocking is responding exactly as forecasted to the MJO and strat. If we don't realize in terms of sensible weather, it is what it is, but there is nothing more that can be said at this juncture.

[Guest]

I really can't believe some of you are even talking about winter sticking around and even using the word snow. It was obvious all winter it wasn't going to work out around these parts. (the fact I am at 36" on LI is the biggest weather miracle of all time IMO) Not attacking anyone I respect the hard work you guys put in but too much science and not enough common sense/observing what had actually transpired to that point. actually 1 month ago many of you were calling for mid-February to early March to be a cold and wintry period and it has turned into one of the biggest non-wintry blowtorch periods I have ever lived through.

Winter is over. Lets all be honest here!

[Isotherm]

Just for accuracy, the above isn't correct. At least for me, I focused on the development of possible negative NAO/block due to MJO and strat. I never said mid feb through march would be cold and wintry. I thought we'd have enough blocking for at least one more snow threat. The block was a little delayed in initiating, but it is happening. If there isn't one more event, it is what it is. I am very happy with the way this winter went personally from a forecast standpoint.

[amugs]

I really can't believe some of you are even talking about winter sticking around and even using the word snow.  It was obvious all winter it wasn't going to work out around these parts. (the fact I am at 36" on LI is the biggest weather miracle of all time IMO) Not attacking anyone I respect the hard work you guys put in but too much science and not enough common sense/observing what had actually transpired to that point.  actually 1 month ago many of you were calling for mid-February to early March to be a cold and wintry period and it has turned into one of the biggest non-wintry blowtorch periods I have ever lived through.  

Winter is over.  Lets all be honest here!

NOT for me - it aint over till it's over Jim and we have had some great storms in March - still a winter month.

[Guest]

actually 1 month ago many of you were calling for mid-February to early March to be a cold and wintry period and it has turned into one of the biggest non-wintry blowtorch periods I have ever lived through.

Mugs and anyone else who reads this focus on this sentence.  Someone dispute THAT!

[Grselig]

It's at least 63. Last day of feb. not good.

[aiannone]

18z NAM was juiced but north with the clipper. 3-6" across NCT, SMA, and CRI

[Frank_Wx]

The background state pattern, from MJO to Stratosphere, suggests a -NAO is poised to develop after March 5th and stay intact possibly through the 12th. It would be our longest period of a -NAO this winter. It's also favorably placed, or should I say more ideal than what we've seen. 

The question becomes can we see better amplification in the 500mb heights downstream across the CONUS? As the Atlantic turns somewhat favorable it looks like the Pacific becomes unfavorable. The EPO is positive on both the EPS and GEFS, which keeps any positive PNA transient in nature. 

The pattern this winter is for upper energy to dump into the Rockies or mid section of the country. With the -NAO and a well timed PNA spike, it's possible trough alignment with the upper energy works out better for us to get the cold and storm to form near the coast. However, I'm not placing trust in A. the Pacific holding together for more than 2 days and B. the -NAO being strong enough (or west based enough) to prevent heights from rising ahead of upper energy entering the CONUS from the PAC. 

So, I continue to believe a minor snow event is possible before winter concludes, but I'm not buying into anything moderate at this point. I also don't see a meaningful pattern change that would bring us 5+ consecutive days of below normal temps. It all looks transient to me. Hope for the well timed PNA spike as the NAO goes negative. March 10th-15th would be the time period to watch. 

[amugs]

actually 1 month ago many of you were calling for mid-February to early March to be a cold and wintry period and it has turned into one of the biggest non-wintry blowtorch periods I have ever lived through.

Mugs and anyone else who reads this focus on this sentence.    Someone dispute THAT!

 Hey Jim no one here will dispute this.
Cut the tude dude.
We used what was at our edicational  means and for a bunch of hobbyists we did our best.if you don't like it I don't know what to tell you.
So, please don't give me the weather rock idelealogy here.
We have just gone through a spring like period for sure. Heck there are many pro mets who.make a living out of this get busted big time.
So take your snow that you recieved this year in this anomolously warm winter in the new snow Capitol of the Northeast and quit belly achin please as you do on here. 
I have spent along with others on here countless hours reporting and share scientific information in the long range posts. 
So please if this is some kind of shove it in your face or AGW inference leave it out in the future./rant

[Guest]

Mugs take the time to read the first sentence that I have bolded in my post from 11:26 and RELAX. I'm just pointing out facts.

[sroc4]

actually 1 month ago many of you were calling for mid-February to early March to be a cold and wintry period and it has turned into one of the biggest non-wintry blowtorch periods I have ever lived through.

Mugs and anyone else who reads this focus on this sentence.    Someone dispute THAT!

Thank God this was pointed out to me. I have been wondering why I was sweating so profusely under my winter Jacket since mid Feb. Now at least I can take off my jacket and not be so sweaty since I now know that the prediction from one month ago was incorrect. Thank God.

[sroc4]

GFS and NAM pointing at a swath of 1-3/2-4" possible for the clipper. CMC and Euro say no way. Ill give it another 24hrs before taking a stand. I'm pretty confident in seeing at least some flakes.

[algae888]

GFS and NAM pointing at a swath of 1-3/2-4" possible for the clipper.  CMC and Euro say no way.  Ill give it another 24hrs before taking a stand. I'm pretty confident in seeing at least some flakes.  

ukie 1-3" also scott...

[Guest]

Honest to goodness some of you guys are way too thin skinned. The entire point of my post was to point out that from very early in the winter season it was obvious the way the pattern set up and it was not a good one for cold and snow in the east. The storm track was not in our favor and I am a big believers that patterns repeat. THEREFORE pointing out the failed late February early March forecast was to illustrate this point and to temper the expectations of snow and cold going forwards(just like Franks last post has done). I even stated in the post that I appreciate the work you guys do and wasn't attacking anyone.

Relax and have a beer or something. It's like I'm reading MSNBC or watching the View or something with the way people are feeling

[Frank_Wx]

The long range trended stronger with the -NAO block overnight. As a result, the mean trough stays over the east for a longer period of time. However, the Pacific does not look favorable. We could be heading into a dreary / cold / rain or snow period with the blocking developing.

[sroc4]

GFS and NAM pointing at a swath of 1-3/2-4" possible for the clipper.  CMC and Euro say no way.  Ill give it another 24hrs before taking a stand. I'm pretty confident in seeing at least some flakes.  

ukie 1-3" also scott...

Nice. I didn't look at the Ukie. I'm glad at least one of the foreign models agrees

[sroc4]

Honest to goodness some of you guys are way too thin skinned. The entire point of my post was to point out that from very early in the winter season it was obvious the way the pattern set up and it was not a good one for cold and snow in the east. The storm track was not in our favor and I am a big believers that patterns repeat. THEREFORE pointing out the failed late February early March forecast was to illustrate this point and to temper the expectations of snow and cold going forwards(just like Franks last post has done). I even stated in the post that I appreciate the work you guys do and wasn't attacking anyone.

Relax and have a beer or something. It's like I'm reading MSNBC or watching the View or something with the way people are feeling

I cant help it. Your words hurt so bad Jimmy.

[algae888]

Honest to goodness some of you guys are way too thin skinned. The entire point of my post was to point out that from very early in the winter season it was obvious the way the pattern set up and it was not a good one for cold and snow in the east. The storm track was not in our favor and I am a big believers that patterns repeat. THEREFORE pointing out the failed late February early March forecast was to illustrate this point and to temper the expectations of snow and cold going forwards(just like Franks last post has done). I even stated in the post that I appreciate the work you guys do and wasn't attacking anyone.

Relax and have a beer or something. It's like I'm reading MSNBC or watching the View or something with the way people are feeling

james I understand your post completely and know you are not attacking anyone however I strongly disagree with your assessment that patterns lock in for entire seasons. if that was the case we would have wire to wire warm or cold for each winter season. rarely this happens (ie: this year and winter 1996). most years we have transient periods alternating from warm to cold or dry and wet. think back to 2013 thru 2015 all three of those winters started of mild and snowless and ended up cold and snowy. most years a pattern locks in for several weeks at a time before relaxing or changing which is what I and others saw for the very late feb and early march period. the block coming up now is a significant pattern change from most of this winter however even with good or favorable patterns it always comes down to timing. we had great timing this winter that is why most are at or near seasonal snow totals. hopefully we can score one or two more.

[Armando Salvadore]

06 GEFS vs 0z EPS. Difference is the blocking, intensity, and obviously the depth of the trough. GEFS is stronger with the -NAO hence a more robust trough in the east, however, 0z EPS is in and out. I should note, that both agree on a poor pacific setup, as the mean trough persists over western canada/Alaska/ NW CONUS. Basically what Tom said, the atlantic progression will have to compensate, or this is done with.



Here is your -AAM, both in polar and tropical domains. So, not only are we still in a NINA state of forcing, but you do have a decrease in westerlies, which supports the short term blocking period. So with this being said, is the EPS or GEFS correct? GEFS is a bit more sustained with that trough vs the EPS in and out. Right now, i'd probably lean in the middle, maybe towards the GEFS a bit. Another thing, we're about to see a constructive interference with the MJO and the low frequency forcing.



Lets check it out; March composite for eastern hemisphere forcing...



Now, lets look at the last time we had constructive interference and a MJO event passage back at the end of Jan. Look at the following 8-10 500mb ....

day

So, in conclusion, there is support for the EPS idea of a quick trough next week, in and out, and back to the NINA state. I question the intensity of the -NAO, but the pacific really is not going to help. Short term however, it appears one last winter shot this Friday for local areas, and a rather interesting clipper.

[Armando Salvadore]

However, i should note that we did have our biggest snow event Feb 8th-10th in conjunction with the MJO wave propagation towards the dateline, however it was a robust wave. At this juncture, both the GEFS and the ECMWF want to weaken it and see less amplitude. Hard to bet against the atmospheric base state and more constructive interference. We shall see where it goes!

[Math23x7]

This is NOT an ideal setup for snow in the northeast even in the heart of winter.  The warm waters off western South America and the cool waters in the Gulf of Alaska are painful to see.  If this is what it will look like all of next winter......jeez, I don't even want to think about it...

[Isotherm]

Pattern recognition has superseded modelology throughout this winter, and there is no difference here. I would still be surprised if we evade a snow event with this pattern. The ECMWF has steadily improved with the NAO and concomitant 50/50, as well as more height rises out west. You don't need a meridional ridge spike to pole; a neutralizing PNA would be sufficient with this Atlantic set up. And yes, heights will rise in the SE US ahead of the propagating short wave, but as long as the confluent flow / attendent TPV lobe remains near Nove Scotia, that northern stream wave will be forced to transfer its energy southeastward. That's meteorology. We shall see how it plays out.

[algae888]

With the block over Greenland and a very cold Canada I would be surprised if we don't see at least one more significant snow starting around March 8th Thru the 15th or so. Last week I thought we'd be tracking something by this time. While none of the models show any system in the next 7 days I do believe they will start popping up before the weekend is over.

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