Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[dkodgis]

The last line in my signature says it all

[docstox12]

Y is this place so frikin dead???? We have a couple storms to track!!! It ain't July u know.

Many people have thrown in their proverbial white towels Jake.  And with the LR too often showing the goods only to fall flat I think many are hesitant.  However, rest assured if in another 24-48 hrs if the euro starts to comes back to the GFS/CMC with the first system regarding the board you will be saying................

OMG Doc I'm screaming laughing with tears!! Grand slam home run!!!!

[jmanley32]

The 00z euro looked interesting but I only have tt now. What does it do from sc to north of ne? It looks intense. Is there another frankzilla map?

[rb924119]

THE 00Z AND 06Z GEFS MEAN SNOWFALL ARE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE IVE EVER SEEN FOR AN ENSEMBLE HOLY GOODNESS

[rb924119]

The 00z euro looked interesting but I only have tt now. What does it do from sc to north of ne? It looks intense. Is there another frankzilla map?

OH YES, except 100 miles too far northwest for us lol nothing to worry about though.

[weatherwatchermom]

Y is this place so frikin dead???? We have a couple storms to track!!! It ain't July u know.

[Guest]

100 miles northwest of you guys is about halfway to me. Is it time for my ears to perk yet or is it still a few days too early?

[weatherwatchermom]

Y is this place so frikin dead???? We have a couple storms to track!!! It ain't July u know.

Many people have thrown in their proverbial white towels Jake.  And with the LR too often showing the goods only to fall flat I think many are hesitant.  However, rest assured if in another 24-48 hrs if the euro starts to comes back to the GFS/CMC with the first system regarding the board you will be saying................

Hilarious!!! I am one of the firm believers..It ain" over till it's over!! Let the tracking begin!

[jmanley32]

THE 00Z AND 06Z GEFS MEAN SNOWFALL ARE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE IVE EVER SEEN FOR AN ENSEMBLE HOLY GOODNESS

maps? Ya at this juncture nw will go se then transfer nw till perfect spot for a redux of something someone mentioned. This could b what we have been wait for all season and maybe years?

[jmanley32]

Damn I was get stuff done without storms on my mind lol well here we go. I see frank added the snow probability spot again a day ago the spot was gone.

[weatherwatchermom]

Def going to be lots of potential to talk about.  Here are some of the main differences in the upper levels between 500mb on the Euro(furthest S soln), the GFS(in between), and the CMC(furthest N soln), for the first system for Friday.  There is still much to be worked out regarding timing and positioning etc.   Some common features on the surface maps is strong LP just poking into the picture in the top right corner of all three surface maps.  This could act as a 50/50 LP and slow things down.  The other thing common on all surface maps is strong HP over top of our system.  If the system slows at all enhancement via a strong baroclinic zone could be significant.  It all depends on where the frontal boundary sets up.  My ears are perked as this is now under 5 days.  Just keep in mind the euro nailed the clipper that wasn't this past Friday keeping everything to the south, but the CMC agreed with it then.  This time the CMC, at least last nights 00z, is much closer to the GFS in its timing and upper level features, so we shall see.   NOTE: I used the 540 line on the 500mb maps as an arbitrary thickness to show the differences in the heights along the EC ahead of the main mid level energy.  

great write up as always...but you forgot to add your "so we track"

[rb924119]

THE 00Z AND 06Z GEFS MEAN SNOWFALL ARE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE IVE EVER SEEN FOR AN ENSEMBLE HOLY GOODNESS

maps? Ya at this juncture nw will go se then transfer nw till perfect spot for a redux of something someone mentioned. This could b what we have been wait for all season and maybe years?

Coming.....

[jmanley32]

THE 00Z AND 06Z GEFS MEAN SNOWFALL ARE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE IVE EVER SEEN FOR AN ENSEMBLE HOLY GOODNESS

maps? Ya at this juncture nw will go se then transfer nw till perfect spot for a redux of something someone mentioned. This could b what we have been wait for all season and maybe years?

Coming.....

the snow maps from gefs. U can get the individual on wxbell if u didn't know. I may b sucked into another month to wxbell if this looks major in a day or two. Wouldn't it b hilarious if I get the job I'm wait to hear from thus week and I start monday....

[Frank_Wx]

New thread started.

[rb924119]

00z GFS Ensemble Mean:



Individual Members:





06z GFS Ensemble Mean:



Individual Members:




EURO Op 10:1:



K*chera:

[jmanley32]

Well that euro run has a real nice gap for most of us lol my suser upstate would not b happy.

[jmanley32]

00z GFS Ensemble Mean:



Individual Members:





06z GFS Ensemble Mean:



Individual Members:




EURO Op 10:1:



K*chera:

384 hrs I just was curious to see for upcoming events anything past 240 is fantasy and even 240 is to far out to get excited.

[rb924119]

Most of that snow does come by Day 10-11, Jman. In fact, like 90% of it aha

[jmanley32]

Most of that snow does come by Day 10-11, Jman. In fact, like 90% of it aha

then wowee...

[Snow88]

GFS also looks good for Tuesday

[Snow88]

Isotherm

"There's nowhere near sufficient PNA ala 2014 for massive suppression my opinion. This is the ideal pattern for our latitude, namely, enough NAO blocking to force the baroclinic zone south of us, and upstream geopotential heights are not terribly high, which promotes resistance in the SE US. Very low probabiloty that we are on the wrong side of the boundary in terms of temperatures."

[jmanley32]

Wow cmc just offshoRe what looks like a hurricane for wed. Jeeze.

[jake732]

what the hell did the cmc do to wave 2?? OUT TO LUNCH!

[jmanley32]

what the hell did the cmc do to wave 2?? OUT TO LUNCH!

suppressed and sheared out looks like. There is a new thread for these 2 possible events.

[Frank_Wx]

The other thread is for waves 1 & 2 (Friday and Saturday night). I will post updates about Wave 3 (next Tuesday) in this thread. Here is EURO Control.

[Guest]

Let's hope for a big storm on Tuesday the 14tg. The scientific reason why I think this one has a legit shot is that the 14th is the birthday of the guy who has proclaimed himself to live in the snow capital of this forum

[jmanley32]

cmc has a monster storm early next week, we get 6 to 12 and aresian gets 12-18!

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