Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

[Guest]

On Saturday June 24th I am running a golf outing. It is a fundraiser for a great cause. The golf outing will be held at 12:30 p.m. at Beekman Hills Golf Club in Dutchess County NY. (lower hudson valley about 1 hour north of NYC) There will be a bus leaving Long Island (From the Long Island Expressway and Lakeville Rd. exit 33, Nassau Queens border) at 9:30 AM The cost is $150. This includes round trip coach bus transportation with food and adult drinks served on board, 18 holes of golf with booze served on course, followed by a full catered dinner and open bar at the courses restaurant. It's a great deal and will be a lot of fun. I WOULD LOVE TO MEET SOME OF MY NJSTRONGWEATHER FAMILY. If anyone is interested in coming with some friends or putting together a NJStrongweather foursome or 2 that would be great. Just PM me and we will talk.

[sroc4]

Mikey I am sorry but I have another bone to pick with you.  I honestly cannot believe that you have resorted to bashing JB like so many others do without knowing the facts.  Here is your post from yesterday:

I have mentioned this before, but in a Weatherbell public video by Joe Bastardi in late 2015, he had pointed out that 2015 would be the warmest year on record and that 2016 would be close. He said that he had been asked by his son Garrett if he was giving in to the climate debate. JB said no because he said that the coming La Nina from 2017-19 would spark a dramatic global cooling so that when the next El Nino would come around 2020, we would start to see the cooling begin. He also mentioned that if the next El Nino was warmer the the last one, he would admit that he was wrong about climate. Well, here were are today and now it looks like we will have not a La Nina but rather an El Nino later on this year. So any of the cooling JB pointed out would not only be brief, it would be minimal at best. And this would likely mean that the new record high would probably be next year, if not this year. Of course, JB would never bring this up and will deny even mentioning what he said in that video. The only way I can pull it up is i I re-subscribe to Weatherbell. But I unsubscribed from the site a long time ago and I have no regrets not re-subbing this winter.

The statement of yours is why I am particular calling you out.  I do so because since you have not had your Weather Bell subscription you have not been able to actually follow him and his thoughts.  You have not been able to see that time and time again over the last 4-6months admit to this original idea having failed, and pointing out the same facts which you point out; and that is that instead of a reflexive mod-strong la Nina which typically has occurred after strong El Nino years we look to flip back to an El Nino after only a brief run at a mild La Nina.  And ironicaly here is JB's post on this very same topic from 2 hours ago:  


I put this on facebook so I can be on public record by I want it here too.

I have come to the conclusion the whole AGW fight has been a huge waste of time and an impediment to progress overall for this nation and the planet. On a personal level, getting aggravated gets in the way While it has helped some involved with getting noticed, or making money, or pushing a political agenda, the same amount of time and effort spent on problems I see right in front of me likely would have helped alleviate the misery there, A classic case of fighting what may be a ghost of tomorrow, while ignoring the demon today. It makes me no money, in spite of people thinking it does ( hitting forecasts does, and missing them does not) has me getting hammered in many circles, and is not my mission, I am not here to save the planet or change the world, a very disturbing attitude of many that are on the other side of the issue.. On a bigger level, I see things like what is going on with the dam in California and marvel at how people have thrown away billions on other things, yet somehow in spite of all their screaming about the affects of climate change, never figured it would rain this hard again because thats what nature does. That is one of countless examples of what I consider hypocrisy and a form of lunacy that seems to have taken over today in many things . I cant control it and when dealing with whole group of people that think they will change tomorrow and cant even solve today, is a waste of time, I will opine when asked, and do want what I believe known given I have been involved, But this is what it comes down to for me, and while its likely insulting to people on both sides that want this complex, energy sapping, fight to go on, I have condensed it into this: ,

The sun, the oceans stochastic events and the very design of the system, with land in the north, water in the south ( oceans v continents) wobbling on its axis around a sun that has known variances is DESIGNED FOR WHAT WE SEE. To think the increase of 1 molecule of co2 out of every 10k molecules of air over 100 years is now the climate control knob seems like a huge stretch to me, When faced with the complex, I simplify, Weight the drivers. What is the unmoved mover.. what starts it all, ITS THE TOTALITY OF THE PACKAGE of which co2 and the effect it has on climate is likely very small and the co2 itself is likely reacting to all around it, not pushing all around it, around. For the entire known record, up until the debate now, that has been true

That is it. I have condensed my argument into that, I have condensed what we should do into this

1.) How much is man responsible for variances that were previously exclusively natural?

In my opinion, most of the warmth today is likely natural given the tiny amounts of CO2 relative to the entire system, of which the oceans have 1000x the heat capacity and are the great thermostat of the planet, taking centuries of action and reaction to reach where they are now.

2.) Is this worth the draconian reactions that will handcuff the greatest experiment in freedom and prosperity in history, the United States of America?

3.) This question may arise, if one wants: Would not the cost of adaptation to such things, rather than trying to correct what has always happened in the past anyway, be a sounder fiscal response?

This is not "anti science" it is doing what man had done to solve problems for eternity, Identify the foundation of the argument. There are many many side issues that can be rabbit holes. But it seems to me there is not much more to say I have been watching both sides parry back and forth, and my side is about to get a hammering to the head as the pause is ending as the new nino comes on, That both sides are not out there making specific forecasts before and then either explaining why they are right or wrong about it, but instead waiting on an event ( reactive, rather than pro-active) tells me that the events or nature are pushing people around, not the other way around, My side should be out in front of this nino and its implications, The rush to judgment that low solar is leading to another little ice age when in reality it may coax stored heat in the oceans that I believe comes from 200 years of strong sun spot activity ( low solar means reduced radiation over tropics, slowing easterlies and encouraging el ninos) is a fatal error. Especially when the state of the oceans today is being linked by the other side BEFORE ALL THIS IS GOING ON to the last 40 years of co2 increase. Only the legendary Bill Gray got out in front of this with his bedrock paper

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/gray2012.pdf

this is also a very good article

http://notrickszone.com/2016/08/18/theres-no-observational-physical-evidence-that-co2-heats-water/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter#sthash.4zTo5Ymh.Hu4xy2Vt.dpbs

But while we sit here and keep holding on to a pause that simply may turn out to have been a plateau, the other side has already given their reasons, no matter how flawed, to jump on what are purely natural events. The lack of a response to a stronger nina to this last super nino is a major wake up call that this is not the past 20 years anymore. While in the large sense the streak of cold in the NPAC is very similar to the post strong el nino reaction in the late 1950s ( no nina, just flip to the cold pdo over an extended period) the last 2 super ninos were countered by strong la ninas. That this was not the case, and there was model fail, most notably by Scripps, are things that we should be addressing, But nothing, Instead talk of the pause still going, or arctic ice, which is abysmally low for the time of year ( though again a cool summer is forecasted in the arctic and that is a good point) or even LIA talk with any cold shot into Europe now evidence of that, is not dealing with the plain fact. 1) You have anther nino on the tail of a super nino. We have not seen that in the records I can find. 2) right in front of us, you had a freak MJO event in February, nothing I can find that strong and that has some wild implications 3) the unprecedented warmth of the western atlantic and gulf in the winter season, 4) The fact is they have laid the groundwork, even though I believed its flawed, for why this is a stepping stone up. While the past is a huge tool to fight for the future, yesterdays glory wont help you today if you are simply relying on it and not using current conditions and explanations to FORECAST One of the biggest problems I see in climo, is the lack of respect for what it takes to make a forecast, and its why you see the see I told you attitude for events that show up. The reversal of perma drought hype in Texas and California are examples, simple reliance on climate variance would have made a forecaster say, weill this wont last but its a matter of time, A new Nino coming on may mean a rainy winter next year for California though % normal would likely be stronger in the south than north for example , I urge our side to get more pro-active in taking stands on why before the what, because with this el nino coming on, the lack of fall relative to other post nino events of this magnitude is going to wreck this pause. I have confidence that the cycles of the IOD/PDO and AMO will in tandem force a correction the other way, but for now there should be a focus on not gawking at the pause, but getting out ahead with cause. In the end the blend of what operational mets do and what true non agenda researchers do with climate, that blend of past, present and future, will solve problems and lead to adaptation where needed and reduce hysteria where not . IF that does not occur, then what I suspect is really going on, climate and weather is being used for an end it was not designed for, ie political, will run the day

Above all I am not "softening" anything. I am doing what I always do in any situation, I am looking at what I am seeing and pro actively, as a forecaster does, using those ideas, not waiting and explaining after. But the front part of this says what this has come down to for me and all the charts in the world pro and con, and examples come down to one thing to me, That in the end Nature rules man, not the other way around, and thinking that we are bigger than nature is a fools errand. Conflict is a part of nature and mans ability to adapt to that has been the source of why we are not in caves anymore.

Yourself and so many of the other weenies on that other site where you posted this are so quick to run with a tweet or soundbite that someone else posts and think that you know exactly what that individual is really thinking.  Instead the sound bite and/or tweet is used to distort the true reality of how the individual is thinking.  The same problems occur every day on FB, twitter, and other social media outlets in todays political climate as well.  The liberal media takes a reality and paints a picture made up of memes and soundbites and uses the "herd" to share and propagate such crap further distorting realities but it agrees with how we think right or wrong.  I call this the Karen Carpenter effect.  For the youngins you can look up her story.  In a nut shell she was told over and over, by people she was supposed to trust that she was too fat.  The result was that even though she wasn't fat at all she eventually believed she was which led to her developing an eating disorder which ultimately killed her.  If you here something over and over again esp if its presented in a reasonable way, even if it isn't the truth it gets believed as truth.  Once you believe something its very hard to change ones mind.  

Here is the take home point here:  Just because the masses believe something to be the truth doesn't mean it is the truth.  Here are two great examples.  There was once a time that the consensus amongst the scientific community was that the earth was flat until someone challenged that idea.  The idea was considered crazy at the time, until well...until it wasn't crazy anymore.  Example two.  The consensus was that the earth was the center of the universe.  This was held as truth for a long time until...well until it wasn't.  So once again just because the consensus amongst the scientific community is that Man controls climate change doesn't mean that someday we are going to wake up to realize we humans were wrong yet again. How arrogant are we to think that we control mother nature?

Mikey please understand I respect the hell out of you, but I do not respect statements like what you said above as it only perpetuates mis information that "The herd" latch onto and take as gospel. That is all.

[Frank_Wx]

I unsubscribed from SV and WxBell...Godzillas are sure to begin appearing in the LR now.

[sroc4]

I unsubscribed from SV and WxBell...Godzillas are sure to begin appearing in the LR now.

I'll be sure to let you know when they do. Lol

[Guest]

Mikey and Scott. I chalk up this "disagreement" to a difference in your ages. Scott is 20+ years older than Mike. Today's generation which Mike is a member of believe what they are told by the media (no disrespect Math. You are my boy). Our/my generation were taught to do research and question what we heard. It's a difference of philosophy. Common sense/practicality vs technology. I call my HS students sheep for blindly accepting what they are taught or see on social media. It's pointless to argue. The psyche and learning process of your distinct generations are completely oppositional to one another. Love ya both though!!!

[Snow88]

Meteorologist from Americanwx ( He lives in the midwest )

"Chicago O'Hare is up to 68 degrees as of 1pm CST. Yesterday reached 67 degrees. Both daily record highs have been shattered. According to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley moderator Hoosier, Chicago had not had back to back 65°+ days in February until today."

[frank 638]

I can't believe we are having another Feb like last year some of the bushes by me already have some flowers growing on them .I wonder what will happen in march another warm month with 80* temps like last year ????

[Grselig]

Mikey and Scott. I chalk up this "disagreement" to a difference in your ages. Scott is 20+ years older than Mike. Today's generation which Mike is a member of believe what they are told by the media (no disrespect Math. You are my boy). Our/my generation were taught to do research and question what we heard. It's a difference of philosophy. Common sense/practicality vs technology. I call my HS students sheep for blindly accepting what they are taught or see on social media. It's pointless to argue. The psyche and learning process of your distinct generations are completely oppositional to one another. Love ya both though!!!

Interesting. I'm 46. Our generation grew up on MTV when it was real (those cheesy Journey and Judas Priest videos). Our attention spans began to get shorter but we still had the newspaper delivered every day. They were not always correct. Print encyclopedias were a valuable reference source and we needed to walk to the library to read them. Information is much easier to obtain today. So few people take time to verify its accuracy. My problem is that we all accept "fake news" if it supports our belief system. Me included. Too many times I have seen posts on Facebook by people older than me, who I respect, which emphasize simply incorrect data. I had to check multiple sources to verify the truth. Such postings decay credibility and injure our ability to make decisions. The truth is out there, but we need to think critically before accepting alleged facts. Both sides of the spectrums.

On another note. RIP George the Animal Steele and Ivan The Russian Bear Koloff. Dark days in wrestling indeed.

[frank 638]

Does anyone remember the Feb blizzard of 2003 on that day NYC received 20 inches of snow I would never forget driving home from a baptism party how heavy blinding snow

[Dtone]

I can't believe we are having another Feb like last year some of the bushes by me already have some flowers growing on them .I wonder what will happen in march another warm month with 80* temps like last year ????

Yeah i noticed that too. Now i know im not crazy. Also some trees are budding, mostly cherry blossom type trees. Fat ones too, look ready to open up.
We dont spend enough time below freezing it seems

I saw a map that shows where trees have begun to leaf. It extended way into VA and even some of southern MD. Used as an unofficial way to see when/where spring has sprung. Way ahead of schedule.

[frank 638]

i cant believe this just checked out 7 day forcast 4 days in the 60s wow.its funny because when we get to april and may its rainy raw and chilly what ever happen to a normal winter

[Dunnzoo]

On Saturday June 24th I am running a golf outing.  It is a fundraiser for a great cause.  The golf outing will be held at 12:30 p.m. at Beekman Hills Golf Club in Dutchess County NY. (lower hudson valley about 1 hour north of NYC)  There will be a bus leaving Long Island (From the Long Island Expressway and Lakeville Rd. exit 33, Nassau Queens border) at 9:30 AM  The cost is $150.  This includes round trip coach bus transportation with food and adult drinks served on board, 18 holes of golf with booze served on course, followed by a full catered dinner and open bar at the courses restaurant.  It's a great deal and will be a lot of fun.  I WOULD LOVE TO MEET SOME OF MY NJSTRONGWEATHER FAMILY.  If anyone is interested in coming with some friends or putting together a NJStrongweather foursome or 2 that would be great.  Just PM me and we will talk.

Sounds like fun but I am a par 3 golf course girl! lol

[nutleyblizzard]

Latest long range outlook looks pretty bleak for us if you want cold and snow. If that is indeed the case, I would rate grade this winter as a D.We really never got that pattern change that we've hoped for; only in transient shots. Despite the theory of widespread snow totals in Canada corresponding with a -AO, well yea that crashed and burned. Don't get me started of another winter gone by without a -NAO. That in my opinion was the biggest culprit of them all. Just about every time a storm was on the horizon it was cutter city. I'm sure the atlantic blocking will show up just in time for spring. Already looking forward to winter 2017/18.

[HectorO]

There's a slight chance of a sun tan Thursday.

[track17]

In my 33 years living at the jersey shore this is the worst winter of all time. Followed by last years.

[dad4twoboys]

Never trust a rodent

[Frank_Wx]

In my 33 years living at the jersey shore this is the worst winter of all time. Followed by last years.

2011-2012?

[track17]

100 times better for the jersey shore. Not even close.

[mikeypizano]

I can't believe we are having another Feb like last year some of the bushes by me already have some flowers growing on them .I wonder what will happen in march another warm month with 80* temps like last year ????

Yeah i noticed that too. Now i know im not crazy.  Also some trees are budding, mostly cherry blossom type trees. Fat ones too, look ready to open up.
We dont spend enough time below freezing it seems

I saw a map that shows where trees have begun to leaf. It extended way into VA and even some of southern MD. Used as an unofficial way to see when/where spring has sprung. Way ahead of schedule.

Phenology maps have been quite interesting to me.

This is the one I use. http://www.usanpn.org/files/npn-viz-tool/

[Quietace]

100 times better for the jersey shore. Not even close.

I would have to check my records, but I think I had somewhere near 10-12 inches in 11-12. Maybe Math remembers...

[Quietace]

100 times better for the jersey shore. Not even close.

I would have to check my records, but I think I had somewhere near 10-12 inches in 11-12. Maybe Math remembers...

10.2 inches

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Never trust a rodent

I'd lock to choke that damn rodent, and the peepers if I hear them anytime soon. Death to all harbingers of Spring and any false prophets like the a-hole in punxsutawney.

I'll have to re-watch ground hog day tonight and watch the scene where Bill Murray drives with the ground hog over the cliff several hundred times. Serves him right.

[amugs]

One more month winter peeps - I know it sure as hell aint feeling anything like it but that rodent aint done till March 20th this year so he still has time to put in the petition to big momma and get a change for us.
53* here today with a brisk,chilly breeze.

[docstox12]

I'm with you Mugsy, all the way!! Dec, Jan and over 1/2 Feb are burned but still plenty of time to get another snow event here and the long range models seem to indicate this.CP's stats for the HV indicate 50 inches of snow is normal and I am about 5 inches away, easily made with a small snowstorm.In spite of the above normal temps, I have had a good run with snowpack on the ground, saw a great 14 inch snowstorm and a few below zero mornings.Not a '95-'96 by any means, but sure a lot better up here than last year.

[docstox12]

Never trust a rodent

I'd lock to choke that damn rodent, and the peepers if I hear them anytime soon. Death to all harbingers of Spring and any false prophets like the a-hole in punxsutawney.

I'll have to re-watch ground hog day tonight and watch the scene where Bill Murray drives with the ground hog over the cliff several hundred times. Serves him right.

I was alerted by the OTI Sanitarium, CP, that you were exhibiting signs of Snow Deprivation and Spring Derangement Syndrome, so I am performing an emergency intervention here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3eyCale4ww

[amugs]

Never trust a rodent

I'd lock to choke that damn rodent, and the peepers if I hear them anytime soon. Death to all harbingers of Spring and any false prophets like the a-hole in punxsutawney.

I'll have to re-watch ground hog day tonight and watch the scene where Bill Murray drives with the ground hog over the cliff several hundred times. Serves him right.

I was alerted by the OTI Sanitarium, CP, that you were exhibiting signs of Snow Deprivation and Spring Derangement Syndrome, so I am performing an emergency intervention here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3eyCale4ww

DOCCCCC!! Whew that just made me feel 100000x better too. You da man! Always one to lift our spirits here with humor!

[sroc4]

Never trust a rodent

I'd lock to choke that damn rodent, and the peepers if I hear them anytime soon. Death to all harbingers of Spring and any false prophets like the a-hole in punxsutawney.

I'll have to re-watch ground hog day tonight and watch the scene where Bill Murray drives with the ground hog over the cliff several hundred times. Serves him right.

I was alerted by the OTI Sanitarium, CP, that you were exhibiting signs of Snow Deprivation and Spring Derangement Syndrome, so I am performing an emergency intervention here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3eyCale4ww

DOCCCCC!! Whew that just made me feel 100000x better too. You da man! Always one to lift our spirits here with humor!

I have it on a cont loop. Its like an IV drip of Morphine....AHHHHHHHHHHHH

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