February 9, 2017 Godzilla: Final Call & Observations

Welcome to the final update of 2K17's first Godzilla.



This is a sounding from the 18z GFS that shows instability in the air mass, which could lead to periods of thunder-snow tomorrow.



The latest radar is showing impressive convection gather in the south ahead of the main surface low. With convection also sitting offshore, this storm has a ton of energy to work with.



The GFS, along with other guidance, concentrates the heaviest banding over NYC Metro. The surface low pressure is expected to 'bomb' out as it approached the 40/70 BM. As it does so, the dynamics from the upper level jet structure is going to put this region under snowfall rates of 2-3" per hour at times during the day Thursday. Visibility will drop to zero.

500mb closes off on some guidance, but 700mb is definitely likely to close off. Incredible frontogenesis, or lift, is going to enhance snowfall rates AND also try to slow the storm down once it gets near the BM. This is why models are showing greater snow amounts today. The storm is not expected to move as quickly as it once did. Temperatures are going to crash very quickly. 850mb winds are expected to be in the 40-50mph range, locally higher along immediate coast. This will help temperatures drop below freezing. Ratios will start out 10:1 then gradually rise to 12:1 by mid to late morning Thursday. Higher ratios are expected for far N&W areas.

Here is my final call:



Where the heaviest banding sets up is a nowcast situation. Some models, like the NAM, are dead-set on a dual jet structure which develops two convective bands from NEPA to southern NY and another from CNJ to LI. This is possible but I leaned against it for now, only because the overall flow remains progressive and other short range models do not really show it. However, if it does set-up then some areas in NEPA and southern NY could see in excess of 12" of snow since you have ratios working in your favor.

Lastly, the gold box. This is where I feel the jackpot will be. Someone within this gold box could see near 2 feet of snow. A Roidzilla. Most likely you'll be in the 18-23" range, but who knows. The storm will slow down, H7 will close off, and incredible convective bands will stream in off the Atlantic. The outflow of this system is going to be incredible!!

Start Time: 1-3am (from west to east)
End Time: 1-3pm (from west to east, likely 4pm over LI/CT)

WOOOHOOOOOOO @ the red zone!

this is gonna be good, i'm very happy to be in the 8-12.

RJB8525 wrote:this is gonna be good, i'm very happy to be in the 8-12.

   

Called it.

Enjoy the storm, ragazzi. I have to take care of some things. Will be back to posting for tonight's GFS run. Will try for the NAM. Although I am done with models. I am dead set on my final call.

Woohoo, me and all amoung others are in the jackpot zone!! Sorry to hoot and hollar but dayumm frank this is exciting, zero visibility! Thundersnow, this is go be incredible. No way the busses in yonkers will be running, too many hills.

MADDONE! I will take that 8-12~!

SoulSingMG wrote:All NYC schools CLOSED tomorrow!

the NYC board of ed website won't load.

too many people trying to get on

12 to 18!!! Nice storm. Still has drama. Gonna be fun to watch.

SoulSingMG wrote:All NYC schools CLOSED tomorrow!

WOWWWW!! Are you serious! Its been a few years!

OMG Great The fact that it will slow down some No one stated that Thanks Frank

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:All NYC schools CLOSED tomorrow!

WOWWWW!! Are you serious! Its been  a few years!

they put it on their twitter also about 8 minutes ago announcing it

Frank you are the beat you have me for 12 to 18 plus maddone this is very good news after having a boring winter thanks you Fran for the update

Did you guys see what happened north of bposton with the ice, 55 car mash up, video of cars spin all over, 2000 flights canceled!

jmanley32 wrote:Did you guys see what happened north of bposton with the ice, 55 car mash up, video of cars spin all over, 2000 flights canceled!

crazy, i saw it on TWC.

also a train at the LIRR derailed this morning and a few hours ago..they are already a mess without snow

Awesome job Frank.

Frank your map is awesome, not just cause I am in the best spot but because I agree with it completely, was how i pictured it, but did not think there b a yellow box. See you on later tonight, and thanks for all your hard work on this!

Here we go 11 reported torn from our boy down south lots of deep convection. That only means we get it next.

NYC closed schools?? Armageddon, I tell ya.

NYC SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED TOMORROW

Are you serious Yonkers hasnt canceled school, LOL

deBlasio must be setting up his reelection with this one

wow very bullish!
and I made it to the gold box!

48*. Temp has dropped 12* in 2 hours.

by RJB8525 Today at 6:52 pm
deBlasio must be setting up his reelection with this one.

LOL but at least he is giving people time for alternate child care.