Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

[dkodgis]

All eyes turn to the Big Storm upon us.

But what about the long range? Any more snow possible?

[Frank_Wx]

All eyes turn to the Big Storm upon us.

But what about the long range?  Any more snow possible?  

Yes, the GFS has another 2-4 inches on Saturday.

[dkodgis]

For he's a jolly good fellow
That nobody can deny

[sroc4]

One more round??

[SNOW MAN]

Doc, when would this possible event take place, Thanks.

[Snow88]

Doc, when would this possible event take place, Thanks.

March 22-23

[sroc4]

Doc, when would this possible event take place, Thanks.

If you look at the time stamp along the top of the images Snow youll see it says 06z Friday March 24th. So plus or minus 24hrs or so. This has a low probability at the moment of actually coming to fruition.

[SNOW MAN]

Doc, when would this possible event take place, Thanks.

March 22-23

Thanks Snow.

[Snow88]

Doc, when would this possible event take place, Thanks.

If you look at the time stamp along the top of the images Snow youll see it says 06z Friday March 24th.  So plus or minus 24hrs or so.  This has a low probability at the moment of actually coming to fruition.  

Every model shows something which is amazing but not getting my hopes up until 1 day before this event if it happens.

[billg315]

I don't know if I have another one of these in me. lol. this has been a draining few days and while I didn't completely bust, I did come up short of expectations today. Ah, who am I kidding. Bring on one more. lol

[SNOW MAN]

Doc, when would this possible event take place, Thanks.

If you look at the time stamp along the top of the images Snow youll see it says 06z Friday March 24th.  So plus or minus 24hrs or so.  This has a low probability at the moment of actually coming to fruition.  

Thanks Doc. It just seems light Mother Nature wants make up for al of the warm weather. My Dad always use to say she always balances herself out.

[jmanley32]

Oy, a big storm possibility? I am not looking at models for a bit only whats posted on here, too much to catch up on, do etc. Is it going to rain this coming weekend I heard?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Oy, a big storm possibility? I am not looking at models for a bit only whats posted on here, too much to catch up on, do etc.  Is it going to rain this coming weekend I heard?

We're forecast for 3-5 inches snow Friday night Saturday morning,on TWC so who knows how accurate that is.

Not sure about by you.

[Guest]

The Euro and GFS both have a clipper for next weekend. I can't see it generating a ton of excitement.

[Frank_Wx]

I posted about the clipper in the March thread.

As for the long range, temperatures look like they will average normal to below normal until we get into the final week of March. I am watching one potential large storm event around the 24th. I expect spring to come in full force the last few days of March especially by April.

[jmanley32]

I posted about the clipper in the March thread.

As for the long range, temperatures look like they will average normal to below normal until we get into the final week of March. I am watching one potential large storm event around the 24th. I expect spring to come in full force the last few days of March especially by April.

Please, I was hoping for March spring or at least half, lets give this big storm one more go around and get it for the coast this time. Inland got what we got all season in one storm. Not tracking anything 10 days out now, way too much to do, thanks for everything you all do, especially Frank for this gr8 site.

[sabamfa]

I posted about the clipper in the March thread.

As for the long range, temperatures look like they will average normal to below normal until we get into the final week of March. I am watching one potential large storm event around the 24th. I expect spring to come in full force the last few days of March especially by April.

Any chance stuff will be green by April 14? When will you have an idea of what the weather will be like that day?

Sorry - it's my wedding and I'm getting anxious!!!

[Frank_Wx]

I posted about the clipper in the March thread.

As for the long range, temperatures look like they will average normal to below normal until we get into the final week of March. I am watching one potential large storm event around the 24th. I expect spring to come in full force the last few days of March especially by April.

Any chance stuff will be green by April 14? When will you have an idea of what the weather will be like that day?

Sorry - it's my wedding and I'm getting anxious!!!

Totally awesome!!!! Definitely shoot me an email around April 1st and I'll give you a tentative forecast

njstrongwx@gmail.com

[sabamfa]

Thank you, Frank!

[Isotherm]

Right now, the WAA pcpn may offer the best opportunity for accum. The mid level vorticity is not sufficiently consolidated (best PVA offshore) and the currently progged upper jet structure even on the ECMWF is indicative of greatest divergence aloft too far east. The angle at which the mid level short wave approaches certainly favors a coastal brush or near miss east. One would want to see increased meridional propensities upstream such that the amplification occurs further southwest. The wave 5 is so far off that it isn't worth significant serious discussion at this point. Bottom line, I think we need noticeable improvements with the euro and significant alterations with most other guidance, if the desired outcome is a coastal storm. The WAA pcpn could yield a couple inches with conducive timing. We will see how this evolves. Down the road, geopotential heights will build across Canada with the jet cutting underneath, so the polar air will continue to be plentiful to our north. The good news is high latitude blocking is less pivotal at this time of year due to shorter wavelengths. Late season storm threats are usually a function of adequate cold air drainage/ ageostrophic flow coincident with upstream height rises to force cyclogenesis southward.

[amugs]

Great stat hee North American snow cover, all time high for this

[jmanley32]

Great stat hee North American snow cover, all time high for this

start? no its supposed to b ending its spring no more, everything here is a brick it suxs.

[aiannone]

[aiannone]

[Frank_Wx]

Incredible pics Alex. Thank you.

[aiannone]

Incredible pics Alex. Thank you.

My Pleasure lol!

[amugs]

El nino showing it is coming 2002-03, 09-10 and 04-05 style by thsee charts. Time will tell.

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