March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

sroc4 wrote:Like Frank said looks like an area of subsidence develops at 850mb

not a model lol only hires from here on out positive juju as mugs wpuld say

I think the CCB over central PA is waaay too far west given how deep and tight this low is off the coast. The models showing heavy CCB over NJ/Eastern PA makes more sense logically.

3k NAM showed that last night Frank while you were out with the GF. 4-6" per hour.

Person who goes by Drz1111 just posted this on another forum and honesty, it's too funny for me not to share it with you guys. I peed a little:

Model run after model run is showing a sub 990 low sitting in the NY bight with a banana high sitting overtop, and folks in this thread are bitching about which side of the bight it tracks through (though always west of the benchmark) and blips in mesoscale QPF patterns?

Honestly, **** all of you. If you were old enough you'd understand how lucky you are and how rare this used to be. You are spoiled ****ing rotten. Every model run that continues to show a storm and a foot of snow is a good thing, since it's another data point in a favorable belended mean, and blended means have the most predictive skill.

Stop bitching about who gets two ****ing feet instead of one ****ing foot. It is mid March and you are about to get a ****ing foot of snow and that's going to take most of you well above your long term seasonal average. Holy Christ, 30 years ago we needed a garden hose and an atomizer to get snow like this.

billg315 wrote:I think the CCB over central PA is waaay too far west given how deep and tight this low is off the coast. The models showing heavy CCB over NJ/Eastern PA makes more sense logically.

I agree. Looks like CF issues to me.

Frank_Wx wrote:

Frank, why does the Low center jump south at the end of the loop/or is that a second center developing behind it? Does that have any significance?

Not picking on anyone but the past 24 hours every time a run doesn't bury us it's convective feedback issues. Why?

billg315 wrote:I think the CCB over central PA is waaay too far west given how deep and tight this low is off the coast. The models showing heavy CCB over NJ/Eastern PA makes more sense logically.

Agree

billg315 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

Frank, why does the Low center jump south at the end of the loop/or is that a second center developing behind it? Does that have any significance?

It chases convection at some point and gets confused. But for the most part the NAM PARA held its ground and did not contain much CFI.

3km looks like it should b more but heck that snow map is gr8.

para NAM increased totals from 06z. Deep breaths.

Frank_Wx wrote:

gotta b tons thunder snow in those pink bands yes?

Mt Holly is going to issue their next briefing at 5pm today..will be interested to see what they do

Good morning everyone I am getting ready to march in the Throgs Neck St Patrick's Day Parade I can't wait to see frank update and when he changes the banner to rodzilla mode

Quick question regarding coastal mixing. Do the projected totals include the loss to the rain?

Or do they just add the front end snow with the back end snow without factoring in the loss (off the front end snow) from the rain?

This probably isn't the forum but i"l ask here anyway and whomever can post the answer wherever they see appropriate.

I am thoroughly confused every six hours at NAM time. I'm used to the old days when the good old regular NAM ran and we mocked it and ridiculed it. Than the NAM got upgraded and started to nail a couple of storms before the long range models did. Now it's like the NAM started in breeding and I can't keep track of who's who and what's what, which is reliable and which isn't.

NAM, PARANAM, 12k NAM, 3K NAM, 4K NAM, HIRES NAM, 36K NAM?

How many are there, which if any are reliable and what's the difference? Inquiring minds want to know.

SNOW ALERT has been issued for NYC. I wonder if bridges or any roads will be shut down Tuesday. I think the wind from this storm may actually be an equal headline with snow!

SoulSingMG wrote:SNOW ALERT has been issued for NYC. I wonder if bridges or any roads will be shut down Tuesday. I think the wind from this storm may actually be an equal headline with snow!

i said this to my mother earlier today. I wonder if Cuomo will shut the MTA at some point Tuesday morning and open back up it mid afternoon.

I wonder if the governor Cuomowill have a travel band and shut down the city on Tuesday will he shut the subway buses bridges

Rgem is a monster

They have the warnings on the highway signs now. Supermarket mayhem begins..

CP..I hope you get an answer. I have asked 3 times what the difference was between the NAM and PARA Nam and I got no takers.

When will you guys post Snowmass and thoughts?