Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

by **hyde345** Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:50 pm

amugs wrote:CMC CLOSES THE VORTS OVER THE GL OFF THAT IS WHY WE SEE ROIDZILLA - CAN IT HAPPEN? SURELY.
Syo - it may have some issues but issues as per Isotherm says the battle line is SNJ

Bob
12Z

That GFS snowmap is rediculously low IMO. All other models give most people on this board a solid 12-18 with 24+ in some areas.

Nam, CMC, RGEM, Sref's, Eukie, Euro, RPM, all snow much higher amounts. GooFuS gives me 5 inches in HV. BS I say and thats not wishcasting. This model has performed very poorly this winter and is always late to the party. Watch, by 12Z run tomorrow amounts will double on this map.

by **SoulSingMG** Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:50 pm

amugs wrote:UKIE!!!

9 7 7!!!!!!!!

by **skinsfan1177** Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:50 pm

track17 wrote:Skins but your in point me in Silverton both northern ocean county looking at the color looks like we are over a foot

Yeah track just being safe lol I like were we are

by **mikeypizano** Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:51 pm

Maybe this storm can be like the Yankees and cheat and we end up with more than models suggest..

by **skinsfan1177** Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:51 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
amugs wrote:UKIE!!!

Holy crap
9 7 7!!!!!!!!

by **amugs** Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:52 pm

by Guest Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:52 pm

Last nights models and trends were awesome. This morning to be honest from NYC metro s and e they have not been nearly as good

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:53 pm

mikeypizano wrote:Maybe this storm can be like the Yankees and cheat and we end up with more than models suggest..

Yeah like no other teams in baseball ever had any steroid users. A Stupid comment get real.

by **SoulSingMG** Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:54 pm

amugs wrote:

What the hell is this?!

by **hyde345** Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:58 pm

Its from the NWS depicting the overall impacts the storm will have on the region.

by **Grselig** Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:03 pm

hyde345 wrote:Its from the NWS depicting the overall impacts the storm will have on the region.

I could not find exact criteria for "extreme". Kinda scary

by **billg315** Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:10 pm

This is going to sound oversimplified and I know some won't like it because they want the exact amount that will fall in their backyard and they all want to jackpot, but . . . To me, the models aren't really all over the place. They ALL show a deep low riding up the coast, either just off the coast or out to the BM, bringing strong winds and heavy snow up the I-95 metropolitan corridor. Some move a little quicker, some a little slower; some mix at the shore, some jackpot over us, some jackpot west. But all of them show a major snowstorm, and yes 10" with 40 mph winds is a MAJOR. Snowstorm. And nobody looking out their window with blowing and drifting will really know the difference between 18" and 30" anyway. Be glad there isn't a model taking out to sea with flurries and partly sunny skies yet.

by **hyde345** Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:12 pm

Grselig wrote:
hyde345 wrote:Its from the NWS depicting the overall impacts the storm will have on the region.

I could not find exact criteria for "extreme". Kinda scary[/quote

Click link below.

http://www.weather.gov/images/btv/gis/wsii/WSSI_Scale.png

by **docstox12** Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:14 pm

billg315 wrote:This is going to sound oversimplified and I know some won't like it because they want the exact amount that will fall in their backyard and they all want to jackpot, but . . . To me, the models aren't really all over the place. They ALL show a deep low riding up the coast, either just off the coast or out to the BM, bringing strong winds and heavy snow up the I-95 metropolitan corridor. Some move a little quicker, some a little slower; some mix at the shore, some jackpot over us, some jackpot west. But all of them show a major snowstorm, and yes 10" with 40 mph winds is a MAJOR. Snowstorm. And nobody looking out their window with blowing and drifting will really know the difference between 18" and 30" anyway. Be glad there isn't a model taking out to sea with flurries and partly sunny skies yet.

A voice of sanity and reason in the model mayhem madness.

We are going to have a great day Tuesday as this will be a daytime storm, always the best ones.

by **mikeypizano** Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:16 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:Maybe this storm can be like the Yankees and cheat and we end up with more than models suggest..

Yeah like no other teams in baseball ever had any steroid users. A Stupid comment get real.

Sorry, I don't get into sports so I only know the one... Relax, its only a joke Wink

by **frank 638** Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:18 pm

i wonder if the mayor de blasio and the governor will shut down subways buses and highways

by **WeatherBob** Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:20 pm

Bernie R says he does not look at the Canadian models or the NAM at all. The NAM in the 24 hr period does have some use. He only looks at the GFS and the EURO.

by **skinsfan1177** Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:23 pm

From another site
3/12 12Z Guidance Summary:

QPF / SNow range NYC area

SREF: 1.30 - 1.55 / 10 - 18"
NAM: 1.00 / 6 - 12"
PNAM: 1.70 - 1.95 / 15 - 22"
RGEM: 1.65 - 1.80 / 10 - 18"
GFS: 0.85 - 1.15 / 8 - 12"
GEFS:
GGM: 1.70 - 2.00 / 15 - 22"
UKMET: 2.30 / 18 -24"
JMA: 1.25 - 1.55 / 12 - 18

by Guest Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:26 pm

Billg. Your write up makes sense. I agree. The problem is we have seen a foot of snow MANY times. I've seen it twice this year. With all the media hype and NWS jumping in 3 days early and press conferences etc; Just look at the numbers in the post above. people WILL be expecting huge amounts and WILL BE FRUSTRATED IF THEY DONT GET THEM.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:27 pm

mikeypizano wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:Maybe this storm can be like the Yankees and cheat and we end up with more than models suggest..

Yeah like no other teams in baseball ever had any steroid users. A Stupid comment get real.

Sorry, I don't get into sports so I only know the one... Relax, its only a joke

My apologies Mickey P.

My excuse is a lack of sleep following this Tuesday storm for 5 days now, being sent into fits of euphoria and depression with each model run, and of course my love and devotion to my beloved Yankees.

For acting like an ass I am giving myself a self imposed 8 hour ban from looking at or posting on this site. Something I probably should have done hours ago anyway. Plus my wife just said she's not speaking with me anymore until I give this whole storm thing a break. She is a very patient woman but even she has her limits.

I'll see you at 10pm. Please don't allow the models to fall apart on us between now and then.

by **rb924119** Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:28 pm

Just had a chance to briefly catch up, and so far I like what I see Wink

the models seem to be trending in my favor. The UKMET and Canadian suites BIG TIME, the NAM suite held serve, and the GFS as usual is out to lunch. Gtg and I'll check back for the EURO, since I have a half-hour break!

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:29 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Billg. Your write up makes sense. I agree. The problem is we have seen a foot of snow MANY times. I've seen it twice this year. With all the media hype and NWS jumping in 3 days early and press conferences etc; people WILL be expecting huge amounts and WILL BE FRUSTRATED IF THEY DONT GET THEM.

Don't think so. 12 inches is the minimum. I agree if it's less than that, say 10 inches, then people will be frustrated.

Trend today on non American guidance is tucked in coastal Roidzilla cold enough for almost everyone. Those on the NE side of the storm (Long Island) may mix for a short while if this track came to fruition. We'll see what Euro says. Very important run.

by **Grselig** Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:29 pm

hyde345 wrote:
Grselig wrote:
hyde345 wrote:Its from the NWS depicting the overall impacts the storm will have on the region.

I could not find exact criteria for "extreme". Kinda scary[/quote

Click link below.

http://www.weather.gov/images/btv/gis/wsii/WSSI_Scale.png

Damn. Thanks

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:30 pm

Wow extreme severity in nyc metro what exactly does that mean? Winds on cmc surely would b near hww criteria that was a insane run. Why bernie discounts cmc snd nam all of them is only thing I dislike bout his thinking.

by **hyde345** Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:35 pm

WeatherBob wrote:Bernie R says he does not look at the Canadian models or the NAM at all. The NAM in the 24 hr period does have some use. He only looks at the GFS and the EURO.

The RGEM, Nam para, Rpm, and other short range higher resolution models have performed well inside 48 hours this winter which is where we are now. The GFS has been horrific. I'm putting my money on the former.

by **mikeypizano** Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:38 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:Maybe this storm can be like the Yankees and cheat and we end up with more than models suggest..

Yeah like no other teams in baseball ever had any steroid users. A Stupid comment get real.

Sorry, I don't get into sports so I only know the one... Relax, its only a joke

My apologies Mickey P.

My excuse is a lack of sleep following this Tuesday storm for 5 days now, being sent into fits of euphoria and depression with each model run, and of course my love and devotion to my beloved Yankees.

For acting like an ass I am giving myself a self imposed 8 hour ban from looking at or posting on this site. Something I probably should have done hours ago anyway. Plus my wife just said she's not speaking with me anymore until I give this whole storm thing a break. She is a very patient woman but even she has her limits.

I'll see you at 10pm. Please don't allow the models to fall apart on us between now and then.

Its ok, but better keep the wife happy!!!

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:44 pm

RPM is Roidzilla

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March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2 - Page 29 MgWeb_WRF_20170312-150000_ANE_ECONUS_F00503000_PgeneralSfcPres_R12km.png.4d7815145f0008733b7c57cc1b2ba124

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