March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

JMan, this is your plume

3k nam brings some mixing issues to coast. still a solid hit...

WITHIN THE LORD ABOVE?? 975 S OF MONTAUK

That is like 18 even with mixing for ocean county

Costal flood watch now for LI sound, NY harbor, south shore bays

RPM HOLDS AND INCREASES A BIT WITH ITS ROIDZILLA/FRANKSZILLA RANGE - SPREADS IT OUT ABOUT 10 MILES IN RADIUS

Guys, Millstone Township, right next to six flags.....you think i will get into the higher end of this or too south?

just for comparison...

3k sleet counted at coast

12k all snow everyone

mixing for LI eastern half

So far all models looking excellent for me in the hills of NW Jersey. High temp forecast to be 24 by on day of storm. Really liking the NAM and RPM models just posted.

Interesting that all models seem to be showing an additional solid hit of 15-20+ inches in central PA. I would have guessed that snowfall rates would not be as extreme that far inland.

Why so much more snow to west of hudson? My plume way less than up by mikeypizano and aresian.

right now i'll lean heavily on euro ukie combo. starting 00z tonight rgem and nam. if storm tracks like uk/euro there will be some mixing issues along the coast. track just to close however still most places should get 12" even with mixing.

RPM QPF

Just caught up on all the afternoon posts, phenomenal 12Z runs for the most part, going to be real tough trying to work tomorrow for sure! Winter Storm Warnings are up and a beast is on its way!

NAM HI RES PARA CRUSHES US 83 STYLE

jmanley32 wrote:Why so much more snow to west of hudson? My plume way less than up by mikeypizano and aresian.

jon please do not take snow maps verbatim. where heaviest bands set up is where the most snow will be. right now models have that over eastern pa. there will be subsidence between banding. if you recall last years blizzard we only got 20" while places north received aroiund 30" and cpk 27". we ended up right between those heavier bands. still got 20" though!! I know everybody wants to be in the jackpot zone but it can't happen everywhere. this is a widespread 12-24+" monster. just try to enjoy the ride.

Radz wrote:Just caught up on all the afternoon posts, phenomenal 12Z runs for the most part, going to be real tough trying to work tomorrow for sure! Winter Storm Warnings are up and a beast is on its way!

I was thinking the same thing. I don't know how I'm going to manage watching the board and trying to do what I'm suppose to be doing for my job. It's going to be tough, but I think watching the board is going to win over work. LOL !

track17 wrote:That is like 18 even with mixing for ocean county

I think at this point in time we're sitting pretty track17

THE NEXT 4 HOURS

upton came down a little with snow totals. still nice though!

they upped there "expect this much" though...

Paul Kocin said this could be a NESIS 4 storm.

Guy who is friends with him on another board said he spoke to him and this is his feeling as of today. Said if it slows down for a few more hours off NJ coast or better off Delmarva could go for 5!!!

Twc hasstill has us 12 to 18 inches of snow

amugs wrote:Paul Kocin said this could be a NESIS 4 storm.

Guy who is friends with him on another board said he spoke to him and this is his feeling as of today. Said if it slows down for a few more hours off NJ coast or better off Delmarva could go for 5!!!

Aren't the only 2 storms to get a 5 the Blizzard of 93, and 96?

Twc hasstill has us 12 to 18 inches of snow

I love these!!!


both percentages went up!!

here is why upton didn't go to blizzard warning.

"Impressive bands/mid level forcing noted, and if low passes
closer to ECMWF solution, and even GFS/12Z nam, heaviest bands
likely set up around NYC and NW, with a low pass between KMTP
and the 40N/70W benchmark.

With a question of low track in proximity to the coast, blizzard
condition confidence is not quite where it needs to be for an
upgrade to a warning at this time, assuming more warming aloft
occurs. As you head away from the coast, higher confidence in
winter storm warnings, thus the upgrade for those areas.

In general, a foot or more of snow accum is likely, high end up
around 20 inches, with the low end under a foot right along the
coast of LI. Much depends on that aforementioned track.
Strongest winds near the coast, with 40 kt in the mixed layer,
which assuming snow as the ptype produces blizzard conditions.
Hopefully this will be resolved with a clearer picture tonight."
good call by them. with track euro/ukie have mixing issues def a concern for coastal areas and nyc metro.