March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

I love these!!!


both percentages went up!!

here is why upton didn't go to blizzard warning.

"Impressive bands/mid level forcing noted, and if low passes
closer to ECMWF solution, and even GFS/12Z nam, heaviest bands
likely set up around NYC and NW, with a low pass between KMTP
and the 40N/70W benchmark.

With a question of low track in proximity to the coast, blizzard
condition confidence is not quite where it needs to be for an
upgrade to a warning at this time, assuming more warming aloft
occurs. As you head away from the coast, higher confidence in
winter storm warnings, thus the upgrade for those areas.

In general, a foot or more of snow accum is likely, high end up
around 20 inches, with the low end under a foot right along the
coast of LI. Much depends on that aforementioned track.
Strongest winds near the coast, with 40 kt in the mixed layer,
which assuming snow as the ptype produces blizzard conditions.
Hopefully this will be resolved with a clearer picture tonight."
good call by them. with track euro/ukie have mixing issues def a concern for coastal areas and nyc metro.

18Z RGEM gives NYC/LI sleet....no good

still not in it's best range yet but here is my concern....
rgem

Math23x7 wrote:18Z RGEM gives NYC/LI sleet....no good

however mike this comes before...

algae888 wrote:

Math23x7 wrote:18Z RGEM gives NYC/LI sleet....no good

however mike this comes before...

Yea, this would probably be 6-10" of snow IMBY.

I'm not concerned. This is thru 18z Tuesday. Walloping for NYC...

SoulSingMG wrote:I'm not concerned. This is thru 18z Tuesday. Walloping for NYC...

some of that accumulation is sleet from c/nj into parts of nyc and def. LI. sleet counted as snow

SoulSingMG wrote:I'm not concerned. This is thru 18z Tuesday. Walloping for NYC...

wow and it's not even over that's only 1pm.

algae888 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:I'm not concerned. This is thru 18z Tuesday. Walloping for NYC...

some of that accumulation is sleet from c/nj into parts of nyc and def. LI. sleet counted as snow

We'll watch the mid-levels. I really am not concerned ATM. This sucker will be a beast.

jersey shore and LI need at least a 50 mile shift east. even areas just away from coast do not want this to trend any further west. nail biting time

algae888 wrote:jersey shore and LI need at least a 50 mile shift east. even areas just away from coast do not want this to trend any further west. nail biting time

Even still, that's assuming this particular model is the be-all-end-all...?

Take that RGEM and tick it east, last minute jog east and having experience as well as research. So many variables and entities going into this storm,its unbelievable. Check out the WV, you can discern the pieces that will set up the storm with a poleward ridge on the west coast!

ch 7 upped the snow totals nyc 12-24 i told 2 members of target on fb that never underestimate when it comes 2 where i get my info from

It's not so much any model being the be-all-end-all as much as it is keeping your mind open to all possibilities. After all, a broken clock is right twice a day.

SoulSingMG wrote:

algae888 wrote:jersey shore and LI need at least a 50 mile shift east. even areas just away from coast do not want this to trend any further west. nail biting time

Even still, that's assuming this particular model is the be-all-end-all...?

very true and it's still out of it's best range however ukie/euro track put coastal areas including nyc metro on a fine line right now. no more west trend!!

TheAresian wrote:It's not so much any model being the be-all-end-all as much as it is keeping your mind open to all possibilities. After all, a broken clock is right twice a day.

Lol, great analogy. Agreed; I'm sticking with the majority right now. Though anything is possible when it comes to the weather. #Jan2015 #NeverForget

...annnnnd the 18z GFS is still SE of all other guidance. Can't make this stuff up so close to a storm.

Honestly not a complaint right here just an obervation.

So for the past 36 hours almost everyone has been saying to throw out the NAM CFI yadda yadda yadda. Doesn't it now seem like some of he other models are coming around to more of a coastal hugger. This is probably why the NWS hasn't updated the Blizzard Watches yet and actually decreased amounts by 3-4" over most of LI. Hopefully the storm tracks 30 or so miles further east than what is being depicted now on the short range models so we can ALL cash in on roidzilla amounts......if not than the N and w crew will jackpot while we mix. They are waaaaaaay overdue anyway.

Where is Frank_WX with the Maddone?

if the storm moves at least 50-75 off shore from the coast...then its super bowl,ws,ncaa tourney all rolled up into one

mwilli5783 wrote:if the storm moves at least 50-75 off shore from the coast...then its super bowl,ws,ncaa tourney all rolled up into one

That might be a little to far, 30-40 miles should do it for everybody

You're getting into some awfully fine margins relatively speaking.

mwilli5783 wrote:ch 7 upped the snow totals nyc 12-24  i told 2 members of target on fb that never underestimate when it comes 2 where i get my info from

Lee thinks NW of the city will see bigger snow falls

Yeah Al ur right bout not take snow maps verbatim, bernie harps on this he called them stupid about 20x last night in his periscope. I do not however totally understand the dropping of blizzard warning, its not about snow amounts, look at the winds on euro and most other models, and frank verified in his email he believes those winds on euro are very possible. I see theres still blizzard watch so are they waiting to see 00z runs to pull trigger and if so what are they looking for?

SoulSingMG wrote:...annnnnd the 18z GFS is still SE of all other guidance. Can't make this stuff up so close to a storm.

POS this winter. Has about 6-7 inches for me when EVERY other model has me somewhere between 12-24. If that verifies I will eat my hat and post it.

If that verifies, everybody will have jumped off a bridge and nobody will be around to see it.