March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

6z NAVGEM

Roidzilla is brewing

Not gonna lie. I just saw the 850 EURO temps and actually got sick and light-headed for real. I think the coast is in bad shape and the NAM which everyone wanted to throw out was on to something 2 days ago.

syosnow94 wrote:Not gonna lie.  I just saw the 850 EURO temps and actually got sick and light-headed for real.  I think the coast is in bad shape and the NAM which everyone wanted to throw out was on to something 2 days ago.  

We threw out runs that showed clear convective feedback errors with the surface low, not one's that showed a warm solution.

syo...we snow at insane rates for 8 hours before any change over. Enjoy that and then worry about final numbers. We've hit the jackpot On long Island for years now...but coastal rain also comes with the territory.

Frank_Wx wrote:Roidzilla is brewing

That water vapor map is a thing of true beauty.

Are the 850 temps what determine ratios?

devsman wrote:syo...we snow at insane rates for 8 hours before any change over. Enjoy that and then worry about final numbers. We've hit the jackpot On long Island for years now...but coastal rain also comes with the territory.

Great post.

Especially in March. Gotta take into account Climo.

TheAresian wrote:Are the 850 temps what determine ratios?

Gotta look at temps at all layers, but I like 925mb.

WOW is all I can say - GFS last one to the party as usual with the big ones.
JB said 3-4 days ago storm to Delmarva off ACy and then ENE - not a coastal hugger.
@Frank - work whats that? Just here physically came up with a great project for my kids to do so I can work.................I mean post and track!!
Principal said twe'll be ready for Wednesday school opening - yuo may butt he rest of us may be digging out.

SYO - HAPPY BIRTHDAY GUY!! ENJOY THE DAY TRACKING!

SR models are going to be insane today like last night -PARA NAM, HI RES and RGEM and GEM LAM

850mb is -10C and 925mb is -9C. That seems like a good sign.

sroc4 wrote:Morning Ladies and Gents.  Here is my first call snow map.  Likely last call unless something drastic happens.  Obviously a last minute job to the east shifts these totals down closer to the coast.  With such an intense dynamic system there will likely be unexpected totals be it higher or lower than expected.    

Sorry for the stupid question, but at approximately what town on the north shore east is your cut off?? I always have a hard time figuring out where my town lies on these maps....lol

SNOW MAN wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Morning Ladies and Gents.  Here is my first call snow map.  Likely last call unless something drastic happens.  Obviously a last minute job to the east shifts these totals down closer to the coast.  With such an intense dynamic system there will likely be unexpected totals be it higher or lower than expected.    

Doc, you did it to me again. I can't see the state line of PA. and N. J. LOL !!!

Sorry snow. Lol. I thought of that when I made it. I didn't have a lot of time this am.

We need 12z east tick please

skinsfan1177 wrote:We need 12z east tick please

Skins these storms of this magnitude usually do tick east from experience 10 mile? 20 mile?

Sferra01 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Morning Ladies and Gents.  Here is my first call snow map.  Likely last call unless something drastic happens.  Obviously a last minute job to the east shifts these totals down closer to the coast.  With such an intense dynamic system there will likely be unexpected totals be it higher or lower than expected.    

Sorry for the stupid question, but at approximately what town on the north shore east is your cut off??  I always have a hard time figuring out where my town lies on these maps....lol

Not stupid. Port Jeff harbor. My gut is telling me final track ends up a tad further east than guidance shows now. Meaning the eastern half of LI totals go up. I do think though that LI and even NYC will change over for at least some time.

So skins you are now thinking we are in trouble?

sroc4 wrote:

SNOW MAN wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Morning Ladies and Gents.  Here is my first call snow map.  Likely last call unless something drastic happens.  Obviously a last minute job to the east shifts these totals down closer to the coast.  With such an intense dynamic system there will likely be unexpected totals be it higher or lower than expected.    

Doc, you did it to me again. I can't see the state line of PA. and N. J. LOL !!!

Sorry snow. Lol. I thought of that when I made it. I didn't have a lot of time this am.

Not a problem. I know this, I like your map for my area.

Scott, nice map!!!

I think I found the reason that the NAM is blowing everything to pieces.......



That's probably the best large-scale isentropic lift I've ever seen since learning about it years ago, with the rapid lower mid-level deceleration and subsequent convergence between the 700 and 650 hPa blue contours screaming for a mega-death band across all of EPA, extreme NW NJ and points NE. WOW if that holds.

Frank_Wx wrote:

devsman wrote:syo...we snow at insane rates for 8 hours before any change over. Enjoy that and then worry about final numbers. We've hit the jackpot On long Island for years now...but coastal rain also comes with the territory.

Great post.

Especially in March. Gotta take into account Climo.

I know climatology. I actually posted yesterday that we've beaten the odds for years here on the coast and now it's time for the N and W folks to cash in. I GET IT. I just don't understand how so many people loved the NAM all winter when it showed snow, but those same people tossed it or discounted it the last 2 days, when it turns out the global models all trended towards it.

The next frame: MY GOD



NE PA IS NUKED

If it helps Syo, I'm praying the 12k NAM is right.

sroc4 wrote:

Sferra01 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Morning Ladies and Gents.  Here is my first call snow map.  Likely last call unless something drastic happens.  Obviously a last minute job to the east shifts these totals down closer to the coast.  With such an intense dynamic system there will likely be unexpected totals be it higher or lower than expected.    

Sorry for the stupid question, but at approximately what town on the north shore east is your cut off??  I always have a hard time figuring out where my town lies on these maps....lol

Not stupid. Port Jeff harbor.  My gut is telling me final track ends up a tad further east than guidance shows now. Meaning the eastern half of LI totals go up. I do think though that LI and even NYC will change over for at least some time.

Thank you!!

GEM-LAM, another good model, shows 40-50mm of snow over a large area and a swath of 50-75mm of snow over doc/CP land.

EURO winds not as impressive as yesterday

I don't know if it means anything, but I was just checking out the HRRR 2m temps for the buildup and they're showing a bit warmer than the NAM has predicted. Is this a potential problem?

TheAresian wrote:I don't know if it means anything, but I was just checking out the HRRR 2m temps for the buildup and they're showing a bit warmer than the NAM has predicted. Is this a potential problem?

I think after today's 12z run we'll have a better idea of temps. We need to nail down the final track.