March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Northern Wayne-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
Including the cities of Damascus, Equinunk, Scranton, Hazleton,
Wilkes-Barre, Milford, and Honesdale
259 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a Blizzard
Warning, which is in effect from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
Tuesday. The Winter Storm Warning is no longer in effect.

* LOCATIONS...Wayne, Pike, Lackawanna, and Luzerne counties in
Northeast Pennsylvania.

* HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow, as well as significant blowing and
drifting.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulations of 14 to 20 inches in valley
locations and up around 2 feet at higher elevations.

* TIMING...Snow will overspread the area near or just prior to
midnight. Snow will become heavy at times shortly after midnight
with heavy snow continuing through much of the day on Tuesday.
The snow will taper off to lighter snow and snow showers Tuesday
night. Winds will increase from the north or northeast later
tonight with occasional gusts to 35 mph late tonight and
especially Tuesday. Most of the snow will be over by Tuesday
night but blowing and drifting snow will cause travel problems
through Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...The heavy snow will combine with strong winds to cause
low visibility along with considerable blowing and drifting
snow. White out conditions will be common, especially over the
Pocono plateau. Travel will become nearly impossible in many
areas. Bitter wind chills may produce frostbite with prolonged
exposure to the cold.

* WINDS...North 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* VISIBILITIES...Snow and blowing snow will reduce visibilities to
a quarter mile or less for several hours.

* TEMPERATURES...Mostly in the 20s.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means blizzard conditions are expected or
occurring. A blizzard is the most dangerous and life-threatening
winter storm. Blizzards reduce visibility to less than 1/4 mile
from falling and/or blowing snow with frequent wind gusts over
35 mph for at least 3 hours. A blizzard warning means that
prolonged whiteout conditions are expected or occurring which
will make travel extremely dangerous or even impossible. If you
venture out, you could be risking your life.

rb924119 wrote:Ok, sorry everybody but I DO NOT have time for a video right now. However, here is my overdue First Call:




Start: 11pm tonight to 3am tomorrow, for most, a couple hours before and after sunrise across southern and central New England.
End: Tuesday afternoon to evening, depending on where you are (, early-afternoon coastal plain), late-afternoon eastern Pa/NY, evening rest of New England)

See the maps for the initial thoughts above, but I generally followed a blend of the NAM, SREF, RGEM, UKMET, and EURO suites, although with much less QPF. Unfortunately, I do not have time to go into detail as to why I chose these models and backed off on QPF, but the lack of confluence to the northeast of our system will allow this to be in and out in roughly 12 hours. To get more than 2 feet out of it in that time will be very tough in my opinion, even with ratios, when you take into account time lost to saturate the column and the winding down of the snowfall toward the end. That said, this will still be a very impactful system with extremely heavy snowfall rates at times, making travel nearly impossible, and lowering visibilities to near zero even without any help from wind. As you can see, though, I am expecting the surge of warm air to win out at least for a time along and east of the I-95 corridor. I have several reasons for this, but I do not have time to explain now. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is also expected with astronomical high tides overlapping with the wind and 2-4' storm surge, so coastal communities should be prepared for that. Also. beach erosion will be bad yet again. Sorry for the lack of a post, but I have to get ready for work! Enjoy your afternoons, everybody, and I will return this evening for continued discussion and any updates to my first call!!

Rb I know you cut southern westchester NY in half with the wind just to keep me out of it by 1 mile LOL, Per Euro I could see gusts to 60mph, 70 is crazy.

i bet they based their upgrade off of the euro wind map.

Look how far west blizzard warnings expanded

SREFS!!!!!!!!!WETTER!!

amugs wrote:

ALL of westchester is rare, usually its only the southern portion.

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105-140615-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.W.0003.170314T0000Z-170314T2200Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.BZ.W.0001.170314T0000Z-170314T2200Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-
Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading,
Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, Collegeville,
Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie
300 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Blizzard
Warning, which is in effect from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
Tuesday. The Winter Storm Warning is no longer in effect.

* LOCATIONS...Eastern Pennsylvania and much of northern New
Jersey.

* HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow and strong winds.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches.

* TIMING...Snow begins between 10 PM and midnight from southwest
to northeast across the warning area, becoming heavy at times
with snowfall rates of Three to four inches per hour for
several hours Tuesday morning. Snow will diminish late in the
day Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make many roads impassable and
may produce widespread power outages due to the weight of the
snow on tree limbs and power lines. Strong winds will lead to
blowing snow, reduced visibility, and additional power
outages.

* WINDS...Northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* VISIBILITIES...Less than one-quarter mile for several hours.

* TEMPERATURES...In the mid 20s.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle.

Frank_Wx wrote:Look how far west blizzard warnings expanded

Upton did not update hence Western/Northern Passaic County to a BW - poor inbreeds up there LMAO!!

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:

ALL of westchester is rare, usually its only the southern portion.

Yeah usually just coastal WC. But the WINDS, like I said a few posts back, will be the main story. Coupled with heavy wet snow = WIDESPREAD power outages.

BGM issued blizzard warnings lol

Frank_Wx wrote:2 inches qpf on latest SREFS

These numbers are killing me LOL is it 15, is it 20, this shows 20-25. As you guys stated a lot of nowcasting, ain't getting nothing done between tonight and wed LOL, cleaning up could be really hard here especially with wind gusts possibly surpassing 60mph, with bugs adds just some more wight to trees and I see ALOT of power outages along coast.

Did upton also say this is a life threatening situation?

aiannone wrote:Mt holly going all snow and expanded Blizzard Warnings

I saw that...they still have Toms River and a bit south as all snow and 7-13" total. Don't see how that can last through the next update. Jake, Jerzee, Track and Larry, there's a ray of hope!


Edit: Just saw we've been downgraded to WSWarning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 300 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 ...An extreme situation is developing for portions of our area as a MAJOR COASTAL STORM interrupts our usual daily routines on Tuesday... .A very strong winter storm could be life threatening for those who do not pay attention to safety precautions Tuesday morning. Low pressure developing off the Carolina coast this evening will become an intense storm as it moves east of New Jersey midday Tuesday. Swaths of excessive precipitation will develop along and west of the track of the storm. Near blizzard conditions are likely for a few hours in eastern Pennsylvania and portions of northern New Jersey where snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour are expected.

Mercer-Eastern Chester-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Trenton, West Chester, Kennett Square, Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown 300 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Blizzard Warning, which is in effect from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Tuesday. The Winter Storm Warning is no longer in effect. * LOCATIONS...Eastern Pennsylvania and much of northern New Jersey. * HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow and strong winds. * ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 12 to 16 inches. * TIMING...Snow begins between 10 PM and midnight from southwest to northeast across the warning area, becoming heavy at times with snowfall rates of Three to four inches per hour for several hours Tuesday morning. Snow may mix with sleet for several hours Tuesday morning which could reduce overall amounts. Snow will diminish late in the day Tuesday. * IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make many roads impassable and may produce widespread power outages due to the weight of the snow on tree limbs and power lines. Strong winds will lead to blowing snow, reduced visibility, and additional power outages. * WINDS...Northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. * VISIBILITIES...Less than one-quarter mile for several hours. * TEMPERATURES...Around 30. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded...stay with your vehicle. &&

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:

ALL of westchester is rare, usually its only the southern portion.

Yeah usually just coastal WC. But the WINDS, like I said a few posts back, will be the main story. Coupled with heavy wet snow = WIDESPREAD power outages.

You see Rb map for winds, he cuts my street in half putting me at the 45 mark, your into the 70+, I find that ared to believe will be that big a diff but we will see, winds tend to get strong here especially on Yonkers high hill terrain. I hope Con-Ed is ready, the bitter cold will make staying inside even unbearable if power is lost, and Con Ed will not go up in buckets until gusts go below 30mph. So if this continues into wed it could be long duration.... soul u and me are in it!! Snow and wind. Saw movable highway sign on CCP near cross county mall saying blizzard warning, tues travel unadvised....Um u think? I think roads will be shutdown for a time.

i'm gonna have a heart attack over here

I am stoked, I think from the models I easily see 15+. Some higher models show 20-25, but I am happy where I am at, no west more puleez.

jake732 wrote:

Snow88 wrote:People are depressed over 12 inches of snow in March?

WOW LMFAO

yes im depressed over 2 inches

This is really personal and probably the wrong forum

WOW.

Does anyone know the last time a Blizzard Warning was issued for Interior Northern NJ? I know we got walloped last year for the Jan 22nd 2016 event but I do NOT think we had the winds and thus no Blizzard warning. This is kind of concerning to me.

Frank_Wx wrote:Look how far west blizzard warnings expanded

HOW DID THEY LEAVE OUT PASSAIC COUNTY? LOL

According to the HRRR, the surface low is going to end up almost directly over VA Beach. The tension grows with every passing minute.

Mi piace!!!

Mi piace molto!!

i haven't seen a storm have so many people on edge like this in a long time

With possibly only 9 hours left until this kicks in. I would have thought that the Blizzard watches would have become warnings by now.



* Never mind. They went from warnings to watches and I slowly typed while talking to my daughter.

It doesn't get much closer than this.