March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:What's the consensus on a video production accompanying my first calls? Yes, no, maybe?

Do it or you're fired.

Well.............I guess I don't really have a choice in the matter ahaha

The SREFs are very warm. They have learned warm for the entire storm though. I mean, the 850mb line gets into CT which is kinda extreme. Let's see what the 12z packages say today. SREFs contain data from early morning.

Frank_Wx wrote:WOW - CHECK OUT THE NEW SREFS. CAUTION: They may be warm for coast. Waiting on temps.

NEW SREFS



Compared to last run

Alot wetter - AWESOME MEAN - may NEVER see something like this.

@Armondo - I agree with you - we always see some type of eastern tick with these storms as the come up. Great piece!
@Rb make the dam video!!!

JB MAPS to his clients

JB's snow map

The spaghetti cluster generally looks like it's a little closer to the coast than the NAM 3k. At least at hr 33.

SREF:



NAM 3k

SNOW MAN wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

SNOW MAN wrote:How much have I got done at work today. ZERO !

At least you're getting paid. I've had my own business and bill my clients hourly for the last 5 days all invoices gong out have the same amount $0.00. When we can't pay the mortgage this month I'll just point outside and tell my wife and kids yeah but look at all that beautiful snow.

You can come to my house after the storm and shovel. I'll give you a dollar and if you do a really good job I'll make 5.00. What do think ? Good deal right.

If it's by the minute yes. I can drag that out for days if I have to. maybe I'll just start a gofundme page.

GOFUNDME
I'm a 55 year old man suffering from snowchoholism, snomania and snow derangement syndrome. Because of the weather forum I'm on headed up by some brilliant people who foresaw an impending historic storm a week ahead of time I have been unable to work, sleep, concentrate, or engage in civil conversation with anyone other than snow weenies. I have made no money for almost a week and I seek your help so my family and I can eat and pay our mortgage.

Frank_Wx wrote:JB's snow map

Looks rather familiar to somebody else's I've seen

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

SNOW MAN wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

SNOW MAN wrote:How much have I got done at work today. ZERO !

At least you're getting paid. I've had my own business and bill my clients hourly for the last 5 days all invoices gong out have the same amount $0.00. When we can't pay the mortgage this month I'll just point outside and tell my wife and kids yeah but look at all that beautiful snow.

You can come to my house after the storm and shovel. I'll give you a dollar and if you do a really good job I'll make 5.00. What do think ? Good deal right.

If it's by the minute yes. I can drag that out for days if I have to. maybe  I'll just start a gofundme page.

GOFUNDME
I'm a 55 year old man suffering from snowchoholism, snomania and snow derangement syndrome. Because of the weather forum I'm on headed up by some brilliant people who foresaw an impending historic storm a week ahead of time I have been unable to work, sleep, concentrate, or engage in civil conversation with anyone other than snow weenies. I have made no money for almost a week and I seek your help so my family and I can eat and pay our mortgage.

I already said I can't be there for the live chat. Now I'm kinda glad. I think you are going to see a bunch of coastal people losing it. I'm trying to keep it together so I'm gonna go quiet.

Srefs west and warm
NWS disco says 50 mile shift west in last 24 hours and looks to continue
Local pro mets refusing to jump on the NWS forecast and going 6-12" maybe less
JB saying 6-12 for ALL of coastal NJ and ALL of LI.
The New King NAM?

Peace out. Think we are in for a big letdown. Hope to God I'm wrong..

SREFS - not as warm as some made out to be IMO

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:JB's snow map

Looks rather familiar to somebody else's I've seen

Wow, did not really realize. Haha

syosnow94 wrote:I already said I can't be there for the live chat.  Now I'm kinda glad.  I think you are going to see a bunch of coastal people losing it.  I'm trying to keep it together so I'm gonna go quiet.  

Srefs west and warm
NWS disco says 50 mile shift west in last 24 hours and looks to continue
Local pro mets refusing to jump on the NWS forecast and going 6-12" maybe less
JB saying 6-12 for ALL of coastal NJ and ALL of LI.
The New King NAM?

Peace out.  Think we are in for a big letdown.  Hope to God I'm wrong..

I said it at the time when many mocked the 84 hour NAM and it now looks like it may have been onto something way before the other models. With it's recent success the last couple of years it's probably time to stop mocking. Hopefully this kicks east 30 miles (BUT NO MORE THAN THAT) or so so we all cash in. Hang in there SYOS we've all been there at some point.

Frank, is that a map of the SREFs?

Frank_Wx wrote:WOAH!!!!!!! MADONNE!!!!!

Geez Doc these short range seem to be consistently targeting our area just like they did in the Feb 9 storm this year. Could we actually bulls eye two major storms in a row?

Why is rich Hoffman on 12 saying this storm picked up speed and will be done by 3pm ?

I get The mixing issues on Long Island . But I haven't read anything here about the speed of the storm . I trust here !!! Have for Years!!!!!

lglickman1 wrote:Frank, is that a map of the SREFs?

No, another short range model.

Nyi1058 wrote:Why is rich Hoffman on 12 saying this storm picked up speed and will be done by 3pm ?

I get The mixing issues on Long Island .  But I haven't read anything here about the speed of the storm . I trust here !!! Have for Years!!!!!

Well, it did pick up speed and H5 will close off too late. But 3pm is kinda early. The earliest I see is 5pm EST.

NAM and NAM PARA coming in now.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:I already said I can't be there for the live chat.  Now I'm kinda glad.  I think you are going to see a bunch of coastal people losing it.  I'm trying to keep it together so I'm gonna go quiet.  

Srefs west and warm
NWS disco says 50 mile shift west in last 24 hours and looks to continue
Local pro mets refusing to jump on the NWS forecast and going 6-12" maybe less
JB saying 6-12 for ALL of coastal NJ and ALL of LI.
The New King NAM?

Peace out.  Think we are in for a big letdown.  Hope to God I'm wrong..

I said it at the time when many mocked the 84 hour  NAM and it now looks like it may have been onto something way before the other models. With it's recent success the last couple of years it's probably time to stop mocking. Hopefully this kicks east 30 miles (BUT NO MORE THAN THAT) or so so we all cash in. Hang in there SYOS we've all been there at some point.

#1 SREFS are not warm verbatim - plumes came out are are the snowiest yet 8" for Islip - not too bad
#2 I have not read NWS Disco out of Upton that says a 50 mile shift west is coming
#3 Armando and Ray 2 pages back showed where the IL will be and with this map it shows the LP off the jersey shore tucked inside the BM - these guys we listen to they are pros
#4 Most of thes storm have a history of ticking east as they each our latitude
#5 CP -referring to your post about a few days ago the Reg NAM had the LP cutting through and over SNJ with a 700mb LP over Philly basically coming east of NY Harbour- it has since corrected bringing the LP off (just thereabout) ACY heading ENE

We shall what 12z says and watch the radars out west of course - lots of forced convection out west with winds and t-storm activity, hail from reports - that is a very good sign.

Happens every time we get nervous with a snowstorm and IMBY posts.

SYO go celebrate your bday - LI is at a cross road - NNJ/LHV/EPA are in a great spot here sorry at t his time of course

The progression at H5 over the last few days has been very interesting to me. It's no secret the duration of this storm has shortened rather significantly, but to see 700mb/850mb low's track over or just east of our area tells me many should remain cold. Unfortunately 500mb low closes off late or remains open the entire time. Important 12z runs today. No doubt about it.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:WOAH!!!!!!! MADONNE!!!!!

Geez Doc these short range seem to be consistently targeting our area just like they did in the Feb 9 storm this year. Could we actually bulls eye two major storms in a row?

FINGERS CROSSED CP

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

SNOW MAN wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

SNOW MAN wrote:How much have I got done at work today. ZERO !

At least you're getting paid. I've had my own business and bill my clients hourly for the last 5 days all invoices gong out have the same amount $0.00. When we can't pay the mortgage this month I'll just point outside and tell my wife and kids yeah but look at all that beautiful snow.

You can come to my house after the storm and shovel. I'll give you a dollar and if you do a really good job I'll make 5.00. What do think ? Good deal right.

If it's by the minute yes. I can drag that out for days if I have to. maybe  I'll just start a gofundme page.

GOFUNDME
I'm a 55 year old man suffering from snowchoholism, snomania and snow derangement syndrome. Because of the weather forum I'm on headed up by some brilliant people who foresaw an impending historic storm a week ahead of time I have been unable to work, sleep, concentrate, or engage in civil conversation with anyone other than snow weenies. I have made no money for almost a week and I seek your help so my family and I can eat and pay our mortgage.

I like a new start time of shortly after Midnight. Maybe 1am.

Frank_Wx wrote:The progression at H5 over the last few days has been very interesting to me. It's no secret the duration of this storm has shortened rather significantly, but to see 700mb/850mb low's track over or just east of our area tells me many should remain cold. Unfortunately 500mb low closes off late or remains open the entire time. Important 12z runs today. No doubt about it.

How accurate are the models in predicting whether or not H5 will close?

REG NAM

lglickman1 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:The progression at H5 over the last few days has been very interesting to me. It's no secret the duration of this storm has shortened rather significantly, but to see 700mb/850mb low's track over or just east of our area tells me many should remain cold. Unfortunately 500mb low closes off late or remains open the entire time. Important 12z runs today. No doubt about it.

How accurate are the models in predicting whether or not H5 will close?

Pretty accurate. Let's see if any of the 12z models close it off.