*Roidzilla 2017* - Final Call Snow Map / Observations

30 degrees here in Deer Park with rain and sleet. 2.5 inches in the ground. Sad day here on Long Island, you inland folks enjoy your storm, you've had to watch us take the trophy many times so I'm happy for you all!

sroc4 wrote:

Quietace wrote:Yikes,


Have to watch, with the 850, 925mb low getting this WNW, the city may have to watch for a change to full rain before the lull.

Ewwww

Not sure how far north/nw it gets from there. Depends on whether the ULL's go NNE or more NE from present location. I am leaning towards the former and it going into NW NJ before elevation really starts to get involved.

Waking up disappointed was hoping to see more snow on the ground. I have now switched over to sleet. Looks like those hours of downfalls of snow between 6 AM and noon will be a downpour of rain

Quietace wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

Quietace wrote:Yikes,


Have to watch, with the 850, 925mb low getting this WNW, the city may have to watch for a change to full rain before the lull.

Ewwww

Not sure how far north/nw it gets from there. Depends on whether the ULL's go NNE or more NE from present location. I am leaning towards the former and it going into NW NJ before elevation really starts to get involved.

Unfort looking at the 500mb flow you can see the distinct change in direction just N of LI. So I agree a more N than NE direction makes sense

sroc4 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

Quietace wrote:Yikes,


Have to watch, with the 850, 925mb low getting this WNW, the city may have to watch for a change to full rain before the lull.

Ewwww

Not sure how far north/nw it gets from there. Depends on whether the ULL's go NNE or more NE from present location. I am leaning towards the former and it going into NW NJ before elevation really starts to get involved.

Unfort looking at the 500mb flow you can see the distinct change in direction just N of LI.  So I agree a more N than NE direction makes sense

Agree. Thats why the Low may end up making "landfall" in NJ or get close by ACY before heading NE from there...

Done. All sleet now. 5.5". Probably the worst bust since I've been following weather. Have the kids sleeping in a tent on the floor with me on the couch by the fire. Promised them we could wake up together and watch it snow while making me a birthday cake. THEY SRE GOING TO BE SOOOOO DISSPPOINTED AS AM I. GIANT EFU TO THE SUPERBUST ON THE ANNIVERSARY OF THE SUPERSTORM

Scullybutcher wrote:Waking up disappointed was hoping to see more snow on the ground. I have now switched over to sleet.  Looks like those hours of downfalls of snow between 6 AM and noon will be a downpour of rain

Yeah man total agreement with you, same here in Deer Park. Shame on me for not just going with that 540 line blowing past me this early and giving us nothing. I saw it but payed attention to all those colorful model snow out put maps!!

10" here in BGM already

Mainly all sleet now in midtown with the tops of the buildings clearly visible. About 30 minutes ago you could barely see them. This is just too bad. Looks to be about 3-4 inches tops.

Just got home from work. Nice snow. 7 inches on the ground here. Got to do some snow plowing with my cars bumper. I really need to get new snow tires. Bed time now hoping to wake up for some of these insane snow rates.

Any chance you guys will go back to snow as storm wraps up and gets closer

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:7.2 inches here.

about 1.5 inches an hour right now. 21.2 and heavy snow. Hoping the R/S line starts moving in the other direction. Storms this big usually make their  own decisions.

Good Morning CP. At 21.9 here, glad to see that 7.2 inches on the ground already.RS line worries me a bit, this is west but maybe just a little to far west.Might get a little sleet in there before it turns NE from AC as Doc has stated.Looks like the heavy band is west of us in PA as well.If that stays there, can't see us getting more than 20 as the heavy stuff could be over at 2 PM.Anyway, these are the HV storms where Mahwah goes to a mix and it stays all snow north of Tuxedo.We will see, the potential is here for over two feet if those bands set up over us.

21.9, 85%, 29.61 F. Moderate snow.

I think the next time we track a storm and anyone says toss the NAM they should be banned from the sight.

This is NWS as of 4am. Interesting for LI and NYC.

I think the next time we track a storm and anyone says toss the NAM they should be banned from the sight.

aiannone wrote:10" here in BGM already

Alex, looking like you, rb and SNOW MAN are in the jackpot zone for this storm.Its a coastal hugger so far.

syosnow94 wrote:I think the next time we track a storm and anyone says toss the NAM they should be banned from the sight.

NOT EVERYONE SAID TOSS THE NAM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! AT THE TIME IT WAS ON ITS OWN. I SPECIFICALLYSAID WE CANNOT DISCOUNT IT BUT DONT PANIC UNTIL IT HAS SUPPORT. YOU ONLY HEAR WHAT YOU WANT TO HEAR...PLUS ITS NOT OVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hoping uptown knows something I don't.

BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDTTONIGHT




* LOCATIONS

NEW YORK CITY, NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHWESTERN AND INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN
CONNECTICUT, AND NORTHERN NASSAU AND NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTIES.


* HAZARD TYPES

HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.


* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS

1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS INTERIOR
AREAS. 8 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEW
YORK CITY, NORTHWESTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
OVER AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY.


* SNOWFALL RATES

2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES.


* TIMING

THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING THIS
EVENING.



* IMPACTS

DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT
TIMES. SEVERAL ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE.


* WINDS

NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH,
BECOMING NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED GUSTS OF 55 TO 60
MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.


* TEMPERATURES

IN THE UPPER 20S.


* VISIBILITIES

NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS



A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS

MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL

HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED

STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&




Issuing Office: New York City

Source: National Weather Service

Issued: Tue, Mar 14, 4:24 AM EDT

When the storm is west of your latitude or right on it the flow has a southerly component. It was modeled like that for the NYC area and LI for 2 days now. Basic meteorology. Why would anyone forecast high totals if that was the case.

sroc4 wrote:This is NWS as of 4am.  Interesting for LI and NYC.  

They'll bust hard here. 3-4 inches on the west side of manhattan and the ice is here.

crippo84 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:This is NWS as of 4am.  Interesting for LI and NYC.  

They'll bust hard here. 3-4 inches on the west side of manhattan and the ice is here.

I'll take that in a minute. They updated just after 4am. Hope they are right

Sroc Why do you take it as a shot at you? To be honest I don't even know who said it because I haven't gone back to look. Relax. Truth is the NAM since last year has been the hot model and too many discounted it. And I hope it changes back over trust me. However up until I just read it in the Disco that's the first time a change back has been mentioned

syosnow94 wrote:Sroc Why do you take it as a shot at you?  To be honest I don't even know who said it because I haven't gone back to look. Relax. Truth is the NAM since last year has been the hot model and too many discounted it.

The 3km parallel that is replacing it actually has decent skill scores. Yet, they are phasing it out of development for the extended HRRR/RAP (out to 36 hours)

Change over in Westchester