Re: 2017 General Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thread

[jmanley32]

Wow 910mb...Looks about like the Euro did at 00z honestly but stronger.

[jmanley32]

Just a note 12z CMC is east now of tip of FL and headed for a turn,. GFS through 201 is way slower, past runs it was already up here still way down south and barely moving.

[rb924119]

Trough is DEFINITELY hanging back into the center of the nation I like that

[aiannone]

much slower today

[rb924119]

905mb. Not gonna lie, my storm senses are tingling a bit with that one

[jmanley32]

Trough is DEFINITELY hanging back into the center of the nation I like that

I still do not see guidance taking it into GOM, I mean no disrespect to your ideas and am nowhere near as smart about weather but nothing really seems to be showing that all models seem to be coming North and east.

[rb924119]

much slower today

Indicative of a strengthening system. When their forward speed decreases that means trouble.

[jmanley32]

905mb. Not gonna lie, my storm senses are tingling a bit with that one

What is that like 180mph cat 5? Me too not gonna lie lol

[jmanley32]

GFS is now growing in size too.

[jmanley32]

CMC is parallelling coast looks like it would hit tip OBX and either head north or NE.

[skinsfan1177]

The high latitude blocking is not going to let this beast go ots

[jmanley32]

CMC at 240, everything is slowing down in time now

[rb924119]

905mb. Not gonna lie, my storm senses are tingling a bit with that one

What is that like 180mph cat 5? Me too not gonna lie lol

Probably gusts, sure. It's very difficult to try to equate barometric pressure to wind speed. Every system is different, first off, and secondly, I don't think there's a way to physically do it. I've never seen an equation for it lol Not saying it doesn't exist, but I've never heard of equating pressure to wind speed directly. It's just like radar reflectivity. Technically, reflectivity DOES NOT tell you anything about precipitation intensity, it tells you about the precipitation itself but we back out precipitation rates through other methods. Same kind of deal here.

[jmanley32]

Ugg we back to a 10-15 day time frame for a possible landfall with GFS, watch we track this till Oct. lol

[jmanley32]

905mb. Not gonna lie, my storm senses are tingling a bit with that one

What is that like 180mph cat 5? Me too not gonna lie lol

Probably gusts, sure. It's very difficult to try to equate barometric pressure to wind speed. Every system is different, first off, and secondly, I don't think there's a way to physically do it. I've never seen an equation for it lol Not saying it doesn't exist, but I've never heard of equating pressure to wind speed directly. It's just like radar reflectivity. Technically, reflectivity DOES NOT tell you anything about precipitation intensity, it tells you about the precipitation itself but we back out precipitation rates through other methods. Same kind of deal here.

Oh I know, my pt was thats one hell of a high end cat 5.

[rb924119]

Trough is DEFINITELY hanging back into the center of the nation I like that

I still do not see guidance taking it into GOM, I mean no disrespect to your ideas and am nowhere near as smart about weather but nothing really seems to be showing that all models seem to be coming North and east.

You're entitled to your opinion lol I would never shut anybody down for not seeing something the same way I do! I don't take it take it personally, trust me lol Just like I said earlier, patience, and I'm going to see how things evolve from my first guest. I'm trusting the pattern (or how I see the pattern and its evolution) right now, not the models.

[jmanley32]

This looks like if it doesnt go OTS, itds back to a hit somewhere near cape cod.

[jmanley32]

Trough is DEFINITELY hanging back into the center of the nation I like that

I still do not see guidance taking it into GOM, I mean no disrespect to your ideas and am nowhere near as smart about weather but nothing really seems to be showing that all models seem to be coming North and east.

You're entitled to your opinion lol I would never shut anybody down for not seeing something the same way I do! I don't take it take it personally, trust me lol Just like I said earlier, patience, and I'm going to see how things evolve from my first guest. I'm trusting the pattern (or how I see the pattern and its evolution) right now, not the models.

Gotcha, and that my friend is why you are able to deduce what u are and I am not.

[rb924119]

I think the GFS is another Mid-Atlantic or New England special lol

[nutleyblizzard]

That northern jet streak at hour 234 looks like it may be tugging Irma towards the coastline. Shades of Sandy.

[jmanley32]

Geeze 252 hrs thing reaches from coast to almost bermuda, sandy size.

[rb924119]

IT'S A SANDY

[jmanley32]

Look at that way offshore and we are already getting TS conditions, and it does look like its pulling west a bit. yikes, but we are way out of any decent range now.

[rb924119]

Nope, somehow continues northwest instead of west. Goes right up the Hudson lol

Correction, along but EAST of the Hudson......Easier to see on a zoomed in look ahaha New England gets it this time.

[nutleyblizzard]

Irma mauls long Island ala 1938 express.

[jmanley32]

Ha RI/Mass landfall, just crazy, way too far off though, if this really slows that much we have more than another week to go more like 2.

[algae888]

I take two things away from today's model runs one it looks to be a very slow mover will probably 2 weeks away from Impact isn't that fun. And two as Frank has stated even if it's 400 miles off the coast with that strong high pressure to the north we would still see tropical storm-force winds here without her ever getting close to us. Still a lot to be determined but as the truough lifts out around day 8 the flow really becomes very weak so I can see her Meandering somewhere near Florida or the Bahamas for several days

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