Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

by **jimv45** Thu Dec 21, 2017 1:45 pm

Yea RB no need to be at the ledge right now, its one run when things look positive this run didn't no big deal at this time.

by **amugs** Thu Dec 21, 2017 2:02 pm

GEFS I said boom for because it shows a nice 2-4" type of snowfall - BOOM because so many think rain and better than the past two years!

by **devsman** Thu Dec 21, 2017 2:18 pm

Maybe if the LOw that cuts saturday strengthens more than is depicted as it departs our area, It will help bring in colder air quicker and stronger for sunday storm. I'm asking...not telling

by Guest Thu Dec 21, 2017 2:36 pm

devsman wrote:Maybe if the LOw that cuts saturday strengthens more than is depicted as it departs our area, It will help bring in colder air quicker and stronger for sunday storm. I'm asking...not telling

I agree.

by track17 Thu Dec 21, 2017 2:59 pm

I get what your saying Rb but my area is not in the ball game but we still have next Friday. Happy you guys will get something

by **frank 638** Thu Dec 21, 2017 3:07 pm

Getting very exciting looks like we will have a white Christmas after all Even for NYC to the coast

by **jimv45** Thu Dec 21, 2017 3:12 pm

Surprised I got A winter weather advisory for Friday into Saturday morning.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Dec 21, 2017 3:14 pm

I started a thread on the Christmas Day potential. Please use this thread to talk about anything beyond Christmas. Thank you!!

by **jmanley32** Thu Dec 21, 2017 4:13 pm

jimv45 wrote:Surprised I got A winter weather advisory for Friday into Saturday morning.

that's for ice I think.

by Guest Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:49 pm

Just saw the 18z GFS snowfall total for the next 15 days. Where do I sign up?

by **mikeypizano** Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:51 pm

by **jmanley32** Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:54 pm

Actually it's all next Fri a major storm. B word maybe but Godzilla or better verbatim on gfs.

by **jmanley32** Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:55 pm

Amazing the lp is so far north but the cold temsins in place to coast until the majority is over. Pa jackpots with a roid borderline frankzilla

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:24 pm

Jackpotting on a fantasy storm 9 days out is not where you want to be. It remains relatively cold until the end because the coastal takes over as the inland storm weakens.

by Guest Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:52 pm

mikeypizano wrote:

With highs late next week forecast to be in the low 20s there’s no way a storm cuts that far west and transfers off the coast (miller b) this far north. Doesn’t make sense. The baroclinic zone will be much further s and e. This run makes no meteorological sense IMHO!

by **mikeypizano** Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:13 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:

With highs late next week forecast to be in the low 20s there’s no way a storm cuts that far west and transfers off the coast (miller b) this far north. Doesn’t make sense. The baroclinic zone will be much further s and e. This run makes no meteorological sense IMHO!

We can drool at least right?

by **jmanley32** Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:48 pm

Just saw precip breakdown if verified verbatim would be a utter catastrophy with .5 to 1.5 ice storm for 95 cooridor good lord.

by track17 Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:54 pm

Jman that setup does not look good lots of green please tell me I am wrong. I really want to be

by **amugs** Thu Dec 21, 2017 8:11 pm

It runs a LP into Buffalo and then transfers. Only the GFS would run a LP into a 1036 HP. Wth? Synoptic peeps OP are eye candy. This IF it is true would shunt the LP and fox a transfer earlier or push it ene.

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Dec 21, 2017 8:31 pm

amugs wrote:It runs a LP into Buffalo and then transfers. Only the GFS would run a LP into a 1036 HP. Wth? Synoptic peeps OP are eye candy. This IF it is true would shunt the LP and fox a transfer earlier or push it ene.

With that setup verbatim a transfer off the Delmarva would be the more likely scenario.

by track17 Thu Dec 21, 2017 8:32 pm

Would that help us actually get mostly snow instead of mostly rain like it is showing now

by **amugs** Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:55 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
amugs wrote:It runs a LP into Buffalo and then transfers. Only the GFS would run a LP into a 1036 HP. Wth? Synoptic peeps OP are eye candy. This IF it is true would shunt the LP and fox a transfer earlier or push it ene.
With that setup verbatim a transfer off the Delmarva would be the more likely scenario.

Nuts it would run to about WVa and then transfer at worst. No way is that getting to Buffalo this is why this model needs to be retooled.

by **amugs** Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:56 pm

track17 wrote:Would that help us actually get mostly snow instead of mostly rain like it is showing now

Track it would.mean a mostly snow but could be rain to snow for the SNJ coast

by track17 Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:58 pm

Ok cool fingers crossed hoping to get something positive from this pattern change

by Guest Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:17 pm

amugs wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
amugs wrote:It runs a LP into Buffalo and then transfers. Only the GFS would run a LP into a 1036 HP. Wth? Synoptic peeps OP are eye candy. This IF it is true would shunt the LP and fox a transfer earlier or push it ene.
With that setup verbatim a transfer off the Delmarva would be the more likely scenario.
Nuts it would run to about WVa and then transfer at worst. No way is that getting to Buffalo this is why this model needs to be retooled.

I agree with the both of you. It’s what I tried to say a few posts up

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:00 am

wow 00z gfs next sat, makes much more sense areawide godzilla for most.

by **rb924119** Fri Dec 22, 2017 4:11 am

I don't even care anymore, I just died when I looked at the Ensembles. Literally I must be dreaming.

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