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Long Range Thread 15.0

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Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 34 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:04 pm

Big changes with 0z GFS. Its picking up the first wave!

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Post by MattyICE Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:07 pm

Yeah. Even if this doesn’t produce a big hit, it’s encouraging at the upper levels. End game very far away.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:14 pm

MEh. Storm slides east OTS. GFS is so bad. At least the storm is back with the first wave.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 24, 2017 6:34 am

Everybody can back away from the proverbial ledge for a bit; 06z GEFS ARE SEXY. And this further demonstrates how volatile these runs will be for the next several days. Think of how hard it is to sink a combo shot in a pool game. Now think of hard it would be to sink a five- or six-ball combo shot. That's essentially what the models are trying to do right now with all of the pieces that will be involved in bringing this storm together. Also of note, the EURO Control BURRIES the City - 20-30" at 10:1. Don't worry, be happy Smile

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Post by algae888 Sun Dec 24, 2017 7:38 am

Good morning I've been very busy at work haven't posted much a little disappointing with the Christmas Day storm for the coastal areas. as far as the potential for late week into New Year's Day still looks good but ensembles are all over the place as would be expected. Of all the models the UK looks the best with the low pressure sitting right at Cape Hatteras and the trough starting to go negative at hour 144 lot of tracking this next week. Merry Christmas Eve and Merry Christmas to all
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Dec 24, 2017 8:09 am

GEFS has certainly improvedLong Range Thread 15.0  - Page 34 Gfs-en10
Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 34 Gfs-en10
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Post by crippo84 Sun Dec 24, 2017 8:14 am

I know storm tracking is what everyone is excited about for the upcoming week. But I can't ignore the fact that my Weather Channel app (lol I know saying that is cringe worthy) shows temperatures well below freeezing from Tuesday until around January 7th!! Well over 10!days. Is this accurate?
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Post by Guest Sun Dec 24, 2017 8:18 am

rb924119 wrote:Everybody can back away from the proverbial ledge for a bit; 06z GEFS ARE SEXY. And this further demonstrates how volatile these runs will be for the next several days. Think of how hard it is to sink a combo shot in a pool game. Now think of hard it would be to sink a five- or six-ball combo shot. That's essentially what the models are trying to do right now with all of the pieces that will be involved in bringing this storm together. Also of note, the EURO Control BURRIES the City - 20-30" at 10:1. Don't worry, be happy Smile

Can you post the EURO snow maps in banter as an early Christmas present please

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Post by Guest Sun Dec 24, 2017 9:21 am

NWS SNOW PROBABILITES FIRST DAY 6. THEN DAY 7. keep in mind they are very conservative with their forecasts so this is saying something

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 34 1ba67310
Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 34 26f1e310

Actually day 7 came up first. My bad. But you get the idea

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:45 pm

Hey RB can you tell me how much snow if any do we get from todays run of the EURO. Looked like it came west some. Low really bombs out north of us this run.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 24, 2017 3:21 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Hey RB can you tell me how much snow if any do we get from todays run of the EURO. Looked like it came west some. Low really bombs out north of us this run.

10:1 just for an idea........ONLY (lol)



Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 34 Img_1322

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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 24, 2017 3:23 pm

Northern New England gets slam-canned lol I'm not worried.

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Post by mikeypizano Sun Dec 24, 2017 3:25 pm

rb924119 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Hey RB can you tell me how much snow if any do we get from todays run of the EURO. Looked like it came west some. Low really bombs out north of us this run.

10:1 just for an idea........ONLY (lol)



Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 34 Img_1322

AAAAAAH!!! CHARGE YOUR PHOOOONE!!!!!!!
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Post by Guest Sun Dec 24, 2017 7:47 pm

rb924119 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Hey RB can you tell me how much snow if any do we get from todays run of the EURO. Looked like it came west some. Low really bombs out north of us this run.

10:1 just for an idea........ONLY (lol)



Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 34 Img_1322

Someone please explain the excitement when 2 days ago the models were showing 30” and now 3”?  I know it’s just a model run buttons WTF?
.

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Post by MattyICE Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:02 pm

Feeling a Xmas miracle for a nice strong comeback on the models either 0z tonight or 12z or 0z tomorrow. Who’s with me?!

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Post by Guest Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:33 pm

MattyICE wrote:Feeling a Xmas miracle for a nice strong comeback on the models either 0z tonight or 12z or 0z tomorrow. Who’s with me?!

I'll be with you tomorrow. For tonight I just want to listen to Christmas music, look at the tree and watch it snow.

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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Dec 24, 2017 11:11 pm

0z GFS looks a little better than 18z which was an improvement from 12z. Lets hope it's trending back to a nice storm it had a couple of days ago. The most important thing about this run is the good location of the low. I wouldn't worry so much about the strength yet until the GFS figures out the 3 different lows that it's depicting

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 34 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_20

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Dec 24, 2017 11:22 pm

Improvements with the 0z GFS vs 18z. with todays runs, the northern jet has been slowly trending towards an earlier phase which in turn brings the low closer to the coast. Baby steps, but time is still on our side.
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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Dec 24, 2017 11:24 pm

Not to mention the GFS is about to bury us with the New Year's Day storm lol

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 25, 2017 12:23 am

Are there def two storms only a few days apart or like has been seen before is only one the true storm that the models are not getting one right?
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Post by docstox12 Mon Dec 25, 2017 2:46 am

I'll get excited on Thursday if the original maps I saw showing this as a big snowstorm are seen then.Good to see indications of a storm are still there.One thing for sure, the cold will be in place.
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Post by rb924119 Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:55 am

Major improvements aloft on the EURO Ensemble. As a result, the LP center clustering has responded. Still not where we were, but it puts us back in the ball game for sure!! Trend is our friend!!

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Post by amugs Mon Dec 25, 2017 9:06 am

My kids outdoor ice rink is going to be a solid block of ice by Wed!!

Arcticgedon incoming!!

Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 34 Eps_t810
Long Range Thread 15.0  - Page 34 Eps_t210



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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Dec 25, 2017 9:36 am

9z srefs with many amped up members is a good sign at this juncture
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Post by jake732 Mon Dec 25, 2017 9:56 am

skinns, srefs are out for saturday already???
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Post by hyde345 Mon Dec 25, 2017 11:41 am

Disappointing 12Z GFS run, can't say I'm surprised though.
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Post by Snow88 Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:28 pm

Euro has a nice miller B from NYC northward

Low transferred further south compared to 0z run
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