Long Range Thread 15.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
Big changes with 0z GFS. Its picking up the first wave!
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
Yeah. Even if this doesn’t produce a big hit, it’s encouraging at the upper levels. End game very far away.
MattyICE- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
MEh. Storm slides east OTS. GFS is so bad. At least the storm is back with the first wave.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
Everybody can back away from the proverbial ledge for a bit; 06z GEFS ARE SEXY. And this further demonstrates how volatile these runs will be for the next several days. Think of how hard it is to sink a combo shot in a pool game. Now think of hard it would be to sink a five- or six-ball combo shot. That's essentially what the models are trying to do right now with all of the pieces that will be involved in bringing this storm together. Also of note, the EURO Control BURRIES the City - 20-30" at 10:1. Don't worry, be happy
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
Good morning I've been very busy at work haven't posted much a little disappointing with the Christmas Day storm for the coastal areas. as far as the potential for late week into New Year's Day still looks good but ensembles are all over the place as would be expected. Of all the models the UK looks the best with the low pressure sitting right at Cape Hatteras and the trough starting to go negative at hour 144 lot of tracking this next week. Merry Christmas Eve and Merry Christmas to all
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
GEFS has certainly improved
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
I know storm tracking is what everyone is excited about for the upcoming week. But I can't ignore the fact that my Weather Channel app (lol I know saying that is cringe worthy) shows temperatures well below freeezing from Tuesday until around January 7th!! Well over 10!days. Is this accurate?
crippo84- Posts : 383
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
rb924119 wrote:Everybody can back away from the proverbial ledge for a bit; 06z GEFS ARE SEXY. And this further demonstrates how volatile these runs will be for the next several days. Think of how hard it is to sink a combo shot in a pool game. Now think of hard it would be to sink a five- or six-ball combo shot. That's essentially what the models are trying to do right now with all of the pieces that will be involved in bringing this storm together. Also of note, the EURO Control BURRIES the City - 20-30" at 10:1. Don't worry, be happy
Can you post the EURO snow maps in banter as an early Christmas present please
Guest- Guest
Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
NWS SNOW PROBABILITES FIRST DAY 6. THEN DAY 7. keep in mind they are very conservative with their forecasts so this is saying something
Actually day 7 came up first. My bad. But you get the idea
Actually day 7 came up first. My bad. But you get the idea
Guest- Guest
Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
Hey RB can you tell me how much snow if any do we get from todays run of the EURO. Looked like it came west some. Low really bombs out north of us this run.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
nutleyblizzard wrote:Hey RB can you tell me how much snow if any do we get from todays run of the EURO. Looked like it came west some. Low really bombs out north of us this run.
10:1 just for an idea........ONLY (lol)
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
Northern New England gets slam-canned lol I'm not worried.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
rb924119 wrote:nutleyblizzard wrote:Hey RB can you tell me how much snow if any do we get from todays run of the EURO. Looked like it came west some. Low really bombs out north of us this run.
10:1 just for an idea........ONLY (lol)
AAAAAAH!!! CHARGE YOUR PHOOOONE!!!!!!!
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
rb924119 wrote:nutleyblizzard wrote:Hey RB can you tell me how much snow if any do we get from todays run of the EURO. Looked like it came west some. Low really bombs out north of us this run.
10:1 just for an idea........ONLY (lol)
Someone please explain the excitement when 2 days ago the models were showing 30” and now 3”? I know it’s just a model run buttons WTF?
.
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
Feeling a Xmas miracle for a nice strong comeback on the models either 0z tonight or 12z or 0z tomorrow. Who’s with me?!
MattyICE- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
MattyICE wrote:Feeling a Xmas miracle for a nice strong comeback on the models either 0z tonight or 12z or 0z tomorrow. Who’s with me?!
I'll be with you tomorrow. For tonight I just want to listen to Christmas music, look at the tree and watch it snow.
Guest- Guest
Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
0z GFS looks a little better than 18z which was an improvement from 12z. Lets hope it's trending back to a nice storm it had a couple of days ago. The most important thing about this run is the good location of the low. I wouldn't worry so much about the strength yet until the GFS figures out the 3 different lows that it's depicting
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
Improvements with the 0z GFS vs 18z. with todays runs, the northern jet has been slowly trending towards an earlier phase which in turn brings the low closer to the coast. Baby steps, but time is still on our side.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
Not to mention the GFS is about to bury us with the New Year's Day storm lol
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
Are there def two storms only a few days apart or like has been seen before is only one the true storm that the models are not getting one right?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
I'll get excited on Thursday if the original maps I saw showing this as a big snowstorm are seen then.Good to see indications of a storm are still there.One thing for sure, the cold will be in place.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
Major improvements aloft on the EURO Ensemble. As a result, the LP center clustering has responded. Still not where we were, but it puts us back in the ball game for sure!! Trend is our friend!!
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
My kids outdoor ice rink is going to be a solid block of ice by Wed!!
Arcticgedon incoming!!
Arcticgedon incoming!!
_________________
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
9z srefs with many amped up members is a good sign at this juncture
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
Disappointing 12Z GFS run, can't say I'm surprised though.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 15.0
Euro has a nice miller B from NYC northward
Low transferred further south compared to 0z run
Low transferred further south compared to 0z run
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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