Possible Christmas Day Storm

Page 2 of 9 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9  Next

Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by mikeypizano on Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:17 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:Rb when is the nam in viable range to start believing totals more?
I think it's like 48 hrs or even less.

So they should start really honing in tomorrow night or so?

More like Saturday morning Mikey Boy.  I hear the latest models show no snow once you get west of the Jersey Pa border and BL issues in southern Westchester.

It is going to be a LOOOONG weekend...
Mike you totally missed syos passive aggressive remark it was a good one, but I got him ha cuz im go be in eastern CT from Sat to SUn or Mon so HA!

Nope, I was fully aware so I denied him his satisfaction Wink
avatar
mikeypizano
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 826
Reputation : 43
Join date : 2017-01-05
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:27 pm

mikeypizano wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:Rb when is the nam in viable range to start believing totals more?
I think it's like 48 hrs or even less.

So they should start really honing in tomorrow night or so?

More like Saturday morning Mikey Boy.  I hear the latest models show no snow once you get west of the Jersey Pa border and BL issues in southern Westchester.

It is going to be a LOOOONG weekend...
Mike you totally missed syos passive aggressive remark it was a good one, but I got him ha cuz im go be in eastern CT from Sat to SUn or Mon so HA!

Nope, I was fully aware so I denied him his satisfaction Wink
rollseyes
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3621
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by sroc4 on Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:38 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:Rb when is the nam in viable range to start believing totals more?
I think it's like 48 hrs or even less.

So they should start really honing in tomorrow night or so?

More like Saturday morning Mikey Boy.  I hear the latest models show no snow once you get west of the Jersey Pa border and BL issues in southern Westchester.

It is going to be a LOOOONG weekend...
Mike you totally missed syos passive aggressive remark it was a good one, but I got him ha cuz im go be in eastern CT from Sat to SUn or Mon so HA!

Nope, I was fully aware so I denied him his satisfaction Wink
rollseyes



_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5832
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by mikeypizano on Thu Dec 21, 2017 8:24 pm

sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:Rb when is the nam in viable range to start believing totals more?
I think it's like 48 hrs or even less.

So they should start really honing in tomorrow night or so?

More like Saturday morning Mikey Boy.  I hear the latest models show no snow once you get west of the Jersey Pa border and BL issues in southern Westchester.

It is going to be a LOOOONG weekend...
Mike you totally missed syos passive aggressive remark it was a good one, but I got him ha cuz im go be in eastern CT from Sat to SUn or Mon so HA!

Nope, I was fully aware so I denied him his satisfaction Wink
rollseyes



Oooh can I have some popcorn!!!! Shocked
avatar
mikeypizano
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 826
Reputation : 43
Join date : 2017-01-05
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:16 pm

SREFS getting wetter - I'll take it and run!!


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9609
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by track17 on Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:19 pm

I am still worried about the surface temps mugs I know you guys say not to but I think it has to be a legit concern we are getting close

track17

Posts : 454
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2016-01-09

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:35 pm

sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:Rb when is the nam in viable range to start believing totals more?
I think it's like 48 hrs or even less.

So they should start really honing in tomorrow night or so?

More like Saturday morning Mikey Boy.  I hear the latest models show no snow once you get west of the Jersey Pa border and BL issues in southern Westchester.

It is going to be a LOOOONG weekend...
Mike you totally missed syos passive aggressive remark it was a good one, but I got him ha cuz im go be in eastern CT from Sat to SUn or Mon so HA!

Nope, I was fully aware so I denied him his satisfaction Wink
rollseyes


scott that actually had me vocally burst out laughing like ur watching a movie lmao.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15148
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:39 pm

track17 wrote:I am still worried about the surface temps mugs I know you guys say not to but I think it has to be a legit concern we are getting close

You have to take into consideration where you live. Temperature wise the south and central coasts of NJ are the warmest areas in the 75 mile radius of NYC, 90% of our area could get snow when that area gets rain.
avatar
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 5810
Reputation : 133
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 56
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY - OTI Sector 4

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by track17 on Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:41 pm

That's what I am trying to say and looking at surface temps I think 90 percent is high most of nj looks very wet. So I think we are looking at more like 60 percent. I hope I am wrong just suck knowing I will be seeing rain on christmas

track17

Posts : 454
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2016-01-09

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by Math23x7 on Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:29 pm

Snow totals through 7 AM Christmas on the 12/21 21Z SREFS:


Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2127
Reputation : 47
Join date : 2013-01-08

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:32 pm

track17 wrote:That's what I am trying to say and looking at surface temps I think 90 percent is high most of nj looks very wet. So I think we are looking at more like 60 percent. I hope I am wrong just suck knowing I will be seeing rain on christmas

No ones seeing more than a couple of inches IMO so if you do miss it you won't be missing much.

And don't get caught up in specifics of the storm 8-9 days away. That has about as good a chance of happening as shown on todays models as I have of going out with Sophia Vegara 9 days from now.
avatar
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 5810
Reputation : 133
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 56
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY - OTI Sector 4

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by mikeypizano on Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:33 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
track17 wrote:That's what I am trying to say and looking at surface temps I think 90 percent is high most of nj looks very wet. So I think we are looking at more like 60 percent. I hope I am wrong just suck knowing I will be seeing rain on christmas

No ones seeing more than a couple of inches IMO so if you do miss it you won't be missing much.

And don't get caught up in specifics of the storm 8-9 days away. That has about as good a chance of happening as shown on todays models as I have of going out with Sophia Vegara 9 days from now.

We expect pictures...
avatar
mikeypizano
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 826
Reputation : 43
Join date : 2017-01-05
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by sroc4 on Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:36 pm

We are not done trending. RGEm at 500mb looks great by hr48. Much stronger with the energy.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5832
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:40 pm

Non-scientific point of view here. I’ve said it over and over on this forum for three years now. Winters follow a pattern. So far this winter it’s wanted to snow. Every event so far has trended colder/wetter as we’ve gotten inside 48 hours. Until something changes I will be optimistic and expect a white Christmas for the entirety of our members.
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3621
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by track17 on Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:41 pm

Mikey I don't care about totals I realize I won't see snow just don't want rain.

track17

Posts : 454
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2016-01-09

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by Math23x7 on Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:41 pm

sroc4 wrote:We are not done trending. RGEm at 500mb looks great by hr48. Much stronger with the energy.

Keep in mind that the trending continued west with the snow events earlier this year practically up until the event was underway.  A similar scenario would give rain to everyone in the region except the far northern and western suburbs

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2127
Reputation : 47
Join date : 2013-01-08

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by track17 on Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:43 pm

Math that is what I was trying to say all day that this we sat trend was bad and it was looking warmer for everyone

track17

Posts : 454
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2016-01-09

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by aiannone on Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:50 pm

0z GFS rollin
avatar
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3536
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by Sanchize06 on Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:53 pm

0z GFS coming in a little west, light snow NW of NYC at hr 78, light rain S&E

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 848
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by Sanchize06 on Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:55 pm

As it strenthens and pulls away at hr 84, everyone is snow, snowing good from NYC and points north and east

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 848
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by aiannone on Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:55 pm

WOW and we have a full out snowstorm for the coast on Christmas day on this run!
avatar
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3536
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by Sanchize06 on Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:59 pm

That run was definitely an improvement, if we can get it to strengthen a little bit earlier and pull the cold air in a little sooner, would be a nice snowfall. Blows up a little too late

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 848
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by track17 on Thu Dec 21, 2017 11:00 pm

Don't like what I am hearing with the rain and west.

track17

Posts : 454
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2016-01-09

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by frank 638 on Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:00 am

Does anyone know how much snow we will have by Xmas morning

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1743
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 35
Location : bronx ny

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:29 am

My how things have changed earlier in the week just 3 days ago the forecast was for 53 and rain. santa rendeer

Sunday NightRain and snow likely after 7pm, becoming all snow after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Christmas DayA 30 percent chance of snow. High 35
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3621
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 9 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum