Re: Long Range Thread 16.0

by mwilli5783 Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:14 pm

happy new year to everyone in here i've been monitoring u guys since i joined the group especially now with this storm coming(west trend keep it going)

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:16 pm

Euro says happy new year

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 18 5a4928fe7fc36.png.f721d4b8fc324612f49a68db0afbecbc

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:17 pm

by **skinsfan1177** Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:17 pm

Euro looking great

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:17 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:18 pm

We're inside 90 hours now. I want to see more significant changes by this point. Long Island is in a good spot at the moment for a Mothrazilla event

by **mikeypizano** Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:22 pm

I want it more to the west!

by **lglickman1** Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:22 pm

The lp center is way off East no?

by **billg315** Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:23 pm

Frank I know you hate imby questions and I’m loathe to ask one that might seem as such, but I think this is broader than just my back yard. If the current Euro held serve, would areas of NJ west of NYC still get a decent snowfall or would we be looking at one of those hard cutoffs where LI gets buried and maybe decent snow at the coast but central/northern NJ gets flurries?

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:25 pm

billg315 wrote:Frank I know you hate imby questions and I’m loathe to ask one that might seem as such, but I think this is broader than just my back yard. If the current Euro held serve, would areas of NJ west of NYC still get a decent snowfall or would we be looking at one of those hard cutoffs where LI gets buried and maybe decent snow at the coast but central/northern NJ gets flurries?

The latter, which is nightmarish

by **mikeypizano** Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:27 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
billg315 wrote:Frank I know you hate imby questions and I’m loathe to ask one that might seem as such, but I think this is broader than just my back yard. If the current Euro held serve, would areas of NJ west of NYC still get a decent snowfall or would we be looking at one of those hard cutoffs where LI gets buried and maybe decent snow at the coast but central/northern NJ gets flurries?

The latter, which is nightmarish

If thats the case I won't even see a flurry... Sad

Frank, do you think its possible for it to come west enough for me to get some decent snow?

by **billg315** Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:27 pm

My concern is something like, (I originally said Jonas but that’s not it. Can’t remember the name. Maybe Nemo who knows)., there’s a line just east of NYC on the radar that the snow shield just can’t cross.

by Guest Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:27 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:We're inside 90 hours now. I want to see more significant changes by this point. Long Island is in a good spot at the moment for a Mothrazilla event

What about when you weigh in all the other models Frank? I know you’re a EURO fan but...

by **skinsfan1177** Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:27 pm

It seems that models are having tough time with which Low to focus on. Any input

by **SoulSingMG** Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:31 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:

I do not like this double barrel low crap. It's confusing the models as well.

by **mikeypizano** Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:32 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:

I do not like this double barrel low crap. It's confusing the models as well.

A fart in California confuses them... Laughing

by **SoulSingMG** Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:32 pm

mikeypizano wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:

I do not like this double barrel low crap. It's confusing the models as well.

A fart in California confuses them...

by **jmanley32** Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:34 pm

Frank can this still make sig trends west still or is long islsnd go be the extent of anything great?

by **hyde345** Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:35 pm

billg315 wrote:My concern is something like, (I originally said Jonas but that’s not it. Can’t remember the name. Maybe Nemo who knows)., there’s a line just east of NYC on the radar that the snow shield just can’t cross.

That's a valid concern. I have same concern in hudson valley.

by **mikeypizano** Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:36 pm

hyde345 wrote:
billg315 wrote:My concern is something like, (I originally said Jonas but that’s not it. Can’t remember the name. Maybe Nemo who knows)., there’s a line just east of NYC on the radar that the snow shield just can’t cross.

That's a valid concern. I have same concern in hudson valley.

Same concern for Wyoming Valley but thats prob a long shot unless it does a Stella...

by Guest Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:47 pm

I Remember when for the big blizzard the models were “chasing convection offshore” whatever that means and the short range models led by the NAM sniffed it out

by **lglickman1** Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:51 pm

Is this a possible similar situation or different setup?

by **rb924119** Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:02 pm

UK is about 50-100 miles east of the BM

by bobjohnsonforthehall Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:04 pm

To this amateur's admittedly untrained eye, that double barreled low solution seems to be a model struggling with the setup more than anything else. I assume it is physically possible but just seems more unlikely than that asshat's snowicane post from last night.

by **docstox12** Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:04 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:

I do not like this double barrel low crap. It's confusing the models as well.

That map brings back a bad memory from February 1978 where my area in NJ was supposed to get 20 inches.It did start like gang busters but at the 9 or so inch mark, stopped cold.That was it.Apparently, what had happened was that the low "transferred" out to another one more east and RI and Mass got pounded by the Providence Blizzard which gave them 30 inches plus.This map reminds me of that.

by **aiannone** Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:07 pm

by **sroc4** Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:07 pm

I’ll reiterate. This is an extremely complex set up. Do not be surprised to see trends to cont up inside of 24-48hrs. There is so much vorticity. Like I said this morning where will the main LP Center be? Will there be a large IVT axis or one consolidated low? And how much earlier can we get phasing? 12hrs earlier and everything shifts west. Northern stream energy will not be properly sampled for another 24-30hrs at the earliest. Look where the northern energy currently sits.

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 18 982ba310

Long Range Thread 16.0 - Page 18 982ba310

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