March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
+40
mmanisca
crippo84
Scullybutcher
deadrabbit79
SnowForest
Carter bk
mikeypizano
essexcountypete
DAYBLAZER
jimv45
Dunnzoo
docstox12
SENJsnowman
Grselig
Radz
frank 638
skinsfan1177
RJB8525
algae888
Math23x7
Sanchize06
CPcantmeasuresnow
Frank_Wx
adamfitz1969
rb924119
billg315
Snow88
WeatherBob
Vinnydula
hurrysundown23
Quietace
track17
aiannone
nutleyblizzard
SoulSingMG
jmanley32
weatherwatchermom
snowday111
amugs
sroc4
44 posters
Page 10 of 19
Page 10 of 19 • 1 ... 6 ... 9, 10, 11 ... 14 ... 19
Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
skinsfan1177 wrote:Nam looks to be coming in farther south and east
Negative
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
Holy hell. Heavy rain for coast. NYC on the boarder. Heavy snow N&W. This is an outlier at the moment.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
H5 closed off over DC
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
This is well west of any other guidance
_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
A great concern is that many people in northwest NJ still don’t have power. Some people I know tell me they’ve been told power may not be restored until Wednesday. I doubt that will happen if this storm hits as projected which may mean people without power until the end ofthe week (if that soon). That’s tens of thousands of people without power for a week or more. Not fun.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4462
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
Frank_Wx wrote:Holy hell. Heavy rain for coast. NYC on the boarder. Heavy snow N&W. This is an outlier at the moment.
Hi this is Guy! A reminder that after seeing this NAM run, the OTI sanitarium is open for business
Guest- Guest
Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
12z NAM is Rain to snow for areas far west of 95, and 95 east is all rain
_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
There is also a huge dry slot over the coast because H5 low basically tracks over us.
Snow map - again - outlier.
Snow map - again - outlier.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
Frank_Wx wrote:skinsfan1177 wrote:Nam looks to be coming in farther south and east
Negative
I stand corrected Frank I was looking at the frames before it looked like it was south and east that looks really tucked in could it be the nams bias to be over Amplified?
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
Not denying this is a plausible solution, but we should note that the NAM does tend to overamp things a bit.
_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
Not buying it completely but not gonna rule it out either. North and west trend has helped and hurt us this year.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4462
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
It won't track that tucked in. Cute run for interior though! :-)
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2853
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY
Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
The 12z NAM makes a huge jump to the NW from hour 51 to 54. How plausible is that type of sudden shift given the set up?
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1186
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 51
Location : Bayville, NJ
Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
billg315 wrote:A great concern is that many people in northwest NJ still don’t have power. Some people I know tell me they’ve been told power may not be restored until Wednesday. I doubt that will happen if this storm hits as projected which may mean people without power until the end ofthe week (if that soon). That’s tens of thousands of people without power for a week or more. Not fun.
Hi! That would be me.
Sorry I've been absent guys....I lost power at 9PM Friday night and it's been off ever since. Been having some brutal nights, woke up this morning to a temp of 39 degrees INSIDE my house.
I'm hoping to get a generator today and some space heaters. They are saying our power will be back by Wednesday night but apparently now there's another storm coming for our area?!?! I've been so out of the loop no internet etc. Only reason I can post here now is I'm at work.
Hopatcong got absolutely slammed by this past storm. NWS has me for another 8-12. I am extremely worried about this system.
DAYBLAZER- Posts : 228
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2017-03-12
Location : Hopatcong, NJ Sussex County
Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
Windshield wiper effect like Bernie said. Still think when all said and done most here will be happy.
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1168
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : Hopewell jct.
Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
And, as we have seen many times, the 12Z NAM run two days out begins the drastic NW shift. This is just the beginning. Before you know it, Doc and CP will have mixing issues...
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 2379
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08
Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
SoulSingMG wrote:It won't track that tucked in. Cute run for interior though! :-)
Upstate NY received 20-40 inches from the last storm. Usually lightning doesn't strike twice in the same place.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY
Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
Math23x7 wrote:And, as we have seen many times, the 12Z NAM run two days out begins the drastic NW shift. This is just the beginning. Before you know it, Doc and CP will have mixing issues...
I don't think it's a shift, Mike, it's just a wobble from 06z run. It's nearly identical to 00z.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6889
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
READ :-) I'll continue to post this gentleman's write-ups because quite frankly, he's the best wx soldier I've come across.
http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e030518.htm
http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e030518.htm
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2853
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY
Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
The difference between the NAM west outlier and the euro east outlier is 3-6 hrs difference in the timing of when H5 closes off. Dont take any single model run verbatim esp when there are these types of differences coming in from run to run and model to model.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8331
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
mt holly early call we'll see what happens this ones getting hyped up lol
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1994
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 38
Location : Hackettstown, NJ
Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
SoulSingMG wrote:READ :-) I'll continue to post this gentleman's write-ups because quite frankly, he's the best wx soldier I've come across.
http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e030518.htm
Cranky indeed. Nice write-ups, and great graphics, but dang he does get a bit...uh...flowery with his prose. "You lazy intolerable swine"? Ouch. Not a people person
essexcountypete- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 783
Reputation : 12
Join date : 2013-12-09
Location : Bloomfield, NJ
Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
Once H5 closes off it pulls the surface low west. If its over land like the NAM shows then the surface low is closer to the coast and the warm air out ahead screws the coast. Again the difference is a matter of a few hrs.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8331
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: March 7th-8th 2018 Storm Potential
12z RGEM
SNOW MAP
RAIN MAP
SNOW MAP
RAIN MAP
Last edited by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:45 am; edited 1 time in total
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Page 10 of 19 • 1 ... 6 ... 9, 10, 11 ... 14 ... 19
Page 10 of 19
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|