Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

by **WeatherBob** Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:44 pm

Mugs, hypothetically, if it cuts off say on the Delmarva coast , do you think it will slow down that much? I can see it slowing down a lot only if that upper level feature over the Great Lakes drops down and catches it. Is that likely to happen?

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:57 pm

Has euro started

by **rb924119** Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:59 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:Has euro started

YES AND HAS DRASTICALLY IMPROVED OVER 00z. Getting the call on another forum but it's certainly sounding positive right now Very Happy

by **rb924119** Sat Mar 10, 2018 1:06 pm

Meh. Southern stream was still way too far south. Though the northern stream was improved.

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 1:09 pm

Wow euro a whisker away on surface. Came well nw compared previous. Mom how's whisker better right lol

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 1:11 pm

rb924119 wrote:Meh. Southern stream was still way too far south. Though the northern stream was improved.

so the surface improvement means nothing I know h5 important but if surface shows it nw isn't that a positive?

by **rb924119** Sat Mar 10, 2018 1:17 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Meh. Southern stream was still way too far south. Though the northern stream was improved.
so the surface improvement means nothing I know h5 important but if surface shows it nw isn't that a positive?

Oh there is no question that this run was a marked improvement over its 00z predecessor. The northern stream was drastically improved. However, negating that was the fact that the southern stream wanted to try to take a vacation down in Disneyland ahaha this kept them too separate for too long. Now, if we had the southern stream stop its southward progression over northern Georgia or Tennessee, we would have had an epic run.

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 1:29 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Meh. Southern stream was still way too far south. Though the northern stream was improved.
so the surface improvement means nothing I know h5 important but if surface shows it nw isn't that a positive?

Oh there is no question that this run was a marked improvement over its 00z predecessor. The northern stream was drastically improved. However, negating that was the fact that the southern stream wanted to try to take a vacation down in Disneyland ahaha this kept them too separate for too long. Now, if we had the southern stream stop its southward progression over northern Georgia or Tennessee, we would have had an epic run.

are u still seeing this as a major storm threat? Or more minor to moderate. Meaning does it still have roidzilla possibility. Heck I'd b happy with Godzilla if I actually got it lol. Also are we looking at more of a impact on Monday or Tues? Wondering if it comes what school day may be affected.

by **amugs** Sat Mar 10, 2018 1:32 pm

The Map from Earthlight:

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 11 Nogood.png.06da20bdb7c4bb14f1a7f37266b5e1c0

We get the Norther Vort/Polar Express aligned and trajected in this direction if goes BOOMM in a YUUUGGGEEE way.

What was once the ultimate model has been meh this winter for us overall. It use to be supreme for Miller A storms.
very positive H5 adjustments being made - dont want the bomb run YET - lets get this Sunday night 0z!!

WeatherBob - the NAO and Blockade in teh Atlantic will slow this down to like we had a 7-9 hour blitz storm - if we can get the North Trajection from a phase over the SE then we go hours longer and harder. Wishing here but not out of the realm of possibilities here.

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Mar 10, 2018 1:32 pm

My question is what models handles this type of storm better...

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Mar 10, 2018 1:35 pm

Ha ha mugs you anwered my question as I was posting...

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Mar 10, 2018 2:18 pm

Cranky's summary of the 12z runs, along with brief ideas of impacts...

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 11 31cd1810

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 2:30 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Cranky's summary of the 12z runs, along with brief ideas of impacts...

Thats not encouraging.

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 2:43 pm

Wow EPS!! Some roidzillas in there!Well more like godzillas, some 24+ well north, coast is lower end. If anyone cares the see the indies I can post them.

by **Radz** Sat Mar 10, 2018 2:46 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Cranky's summary of the 12z runs, along with brief ideas of impacts...

Thats not encouraging.

It is WAY BETTER than what we had before... and I'll say it again, eerily Boxing Day like, hope the NW trends continue tonight!

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 2:49 pm

Radz wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Cranky's summary of the 12z runs, along with brief ideas of impacts...

Thats not encouraging.
It is WAY BETTER than what we had before... and I'll say it again, eerily Boxing Day like, hope the NW trends continue tonight!

Yes I said that back somewhere too. Last second. The EPS seem to have this as far out as 5 days from now before its past though, thats a pretty big spread. Looks like more of a tues/wed or wed/thurs even. I could be wrong.

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Mar 10, 2018 2:54 pm

12z Ensemble Mean snow map, FWIW. The redevelopment over the gulf of Maine is what sticks out most. Beantown on north and east could be in for yet another 'Zilla.

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 11 68b30c10

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 11 68b30c10

by **rb924119** Sat Mar 10, 2018 3:01 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Cranky's summary of the 12z runs, along with brief ideas of impacts...

I have HUGE issue with this; only operational runs were used. No mention of the continued heavily west-leaning ensemble spreads of each respective suite, nor of the drastic westward shifts in the last 24 hours of the models and their respective ensembles. Not saying this is wrong, and if it supports his thinking then fine, but at least advise as to why it supports his thinking. This isn't a fair analysis at face-value, in my opinion.

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 10, 2018 3:07 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:12z Ensemble Mean snow map, FWIW. The redevelopment over the gulf of Maine is what sticks out most. Beantown on north and east could be in for yet another 'Zilla.

plenty time for that to shift over here.

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Mar 10, 2018 3:23 pm

rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Cranky's summary of the 12z runs, along with brief ideas of impacts...

I have HUGE issue with this; only operational runs were used. No mention of the continued heavily west-leaning ensemble spreads of each respective suite, nor of the drastic westward shifts in the last 24 hours of the models and their respective ensembles. Not saying this is wrong, and if it supports his thinking then fine, but at least advise as to why it supports his thinking. This isn't a fair analysis at face-value, in my opinion.

Another map of his. His reasoning is that the AK/Yukon vort does not have time to interact fully with the system to bring us impactful conditions. Here's a bit more he said: "The coastal to me honestly doesn't bother anyone except Nova Scotia. Initial storm in infant stage is the interior MIDATL - and then the Yukon/AK vort & interaction w/departing coastal is the NorthEAST portion of the event."

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 11 E7d6cb10

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 11 E7d6cb10

by **Radz** Sat Mar 10, 2018 3:37 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Cranky's summary of the 12z runs, along with brief ideas of impacts...

I have HUGE issue with this; only operational runs were used. No mention of the continued heavily west-leaning ensemble spreads of each respective suite, nor of the drastic westward shifts in the last 24 hours of the models and their respective ensembles. Not saying this is wrong, and if it supports his thinking then fine, but at least advise as to why it supports his thinking. This isn't a fair analysis at face-value, in my opinion.

Another map of his. His reasoning is that the AK/Yukon vort does not have time to interact fully with the system to bring us impactful conditions. Here's a bit more he said: "The coastal to me honestly doesn't bother anyone except Nova Scotia. Initial storm in infant stage is the interior MIDATL - and then the Yukon/AK vort & interaction w/departing coastal is the NorthEAST portion of the event."

I think that was before the 12Z suite, maybe his thinking will change??