Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

weatherwatchermom wrote:darn please don't make fun of my I am messed up with these runs time without the time change..lol...the nam is coming now
i thought is was going to be 10 and the gfs is now 12:30 and would make the euro 3 am...and rb..how can you hear the nam is going to be hot...but its not out yet?

SREFs, mom, not NAM. HOWEVER, in the past the SREFs have been a good tip off to what the NAM comes in with, though that metric has been a poor performer this season.

Are we still talking a storm for the 20th-21st or 21st-22nd?

skinsfan1177 wrote:

Game. On.

Busy weekend. Will be back tomorrow with an update

The maps just posted don’t look that good. Or am I missing something? I’ll gladly take the 4-6” it shows for me but why so jacked up?

Is the control or the mean the one that should be viewed with less skepticism?

FWIW, I have seen in the past the SREFs change snow totals a certain direction in NYC from the prior run while the rest of the model suite goes the other way from.  In the past, when the SREFs decrease snow, I have seen the NAM/RGEM increase snow.  Let's see if it happens again tonight.  No guarantees though.

00z nam rolling

Lead shortwave is weaker this run. That's a good thing.

Channel 5 forecasting accumulating snow

NAM a little SE of 18z run so far, which could be better for any mixing issues, should be a pretty good run though from the looks of it

Already down to 988mb off the VA coast, could be a huge run

Maybe not lol

Sanchiz

Can anybody give an estimate guess for Stafford virgina ? I’m bisiting family here now AND Florida family is here as well . The Florida kids are getting excited to possibley see snow . I want to keep them posted after I head back to LI tomorrow night

0z NAM is a miss, but the NAM has looked fairly inconsistent from run to run, 18z was drastically different than the morning runs, and this run different than 18z

18z runs, especially the NAM always set us up for disappointment. Consistently has been the juiciest run for each storm all winter.

I wouldn't worry about the NAM too much at this stage, looking at the last 3 runs you can just see how all over the place it is.

0z



18z



12z

The 0Z EURO for Wednesday has what is essentially a dawn to dusk snowstorm in March. It's a shame that it's not a nighttime snowstorm...

euro has 10 inches for many areas, thats a good sign, all daytime though, thats not so great. the rest of models were near miss.

Very positive runs over night. NYC and South and east very in the game.

Wake up people!

I'm surprised the board not hopping with euro run over a foot for most with ratios. It actually shows some ok cold.