Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

jmanley32 wrote:I wont throw in the towel till after the chance passes, I need this big time.

I'm actually rooting for your area and NYC proper more on this one than I am my own area.

It almost feels gluttoness at this point for me to root for more snow. Don't get me wrong though if it comes I'll gladly take it.

We have about half the EPS members showing warning level snow for NYC, some godzilla totals and most of them show at least some snow into NYC but the cut off is tight.

18z GFS comes in more NW

18z ICON NW

these are good signs since euro.

Great trends today. Unfortunately I can only stay up to watch the NAM then its off too bed with work looming tomorrow morning. Damn time change.

nutleyblizzard wrote:Great trends today. Unfortunately I can only stay up to watch the NAM then its off too bed with work looming tomorrow morning. Damn time change.

same here plus I have a wicked cough. Not feeling great need my r and r.

jmanley32 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:Great trends today. Unfortunately I can only stay up to watch the NAM then its off too bed with work looming tomorrow morning. Damn time change.

same here plus I have a wicked cough. Not feeling great need my r and r.

We really need this storm to deliver the goods after the other storms this month have pretty much skunked the both of us. I don't think I can take a 4th heartbreak. Its going to be a couple of stress filled days of model watching. In the meantime go get some rest Jman.

Interesting thing about 18z NAM (and this is likely to change as subtle temperature dynamics in a storm can’t be nailed down 3 days out) it would provide several hours of freezing rain going into the Wed AM rush hour before turning to all snow between late morning and midday. That would be quite an ice storm followed by a layer of heavy snow on top of the ice.

Frz rain (maybe sleet) would start around midnight and not go to snow until about 11 am. 850 temps are above freezing the whole time while lower level temps are at or below freezing.

billg315 wrote:Frz rain (maybe sleet) would start around midnight and not go to snow until about 11 am. 850 temps are above freezing the whole time while lower level temps are at or below freezing.

12hrs of freezing rain yikes more power outages as nam also had high winds. This has been one heck of a windy month.

Very good trends at the evolution of the upper air dynamics.
We have less confluence being modelled on being it has backed off NW by about 100 miles, RGEM has it 150 miles along with teh NAM thus bringing the storm right up teh coast and then stalling SE off Montauk, LI.
EPS shows a few massive hit member with some very good left leaners. GEFS showed good improvements aloft but teh surface did not depict such.
More phasing of the Norther and Southern Vorts so things seem to be headed in the right direction.
The players are there for a dynamic storm still and we saw great changes aloft today which we needed.
Long day at the PR Paddy Parade and party so off to bed and hopefully I see 4 pages by 6:30AM by Al and Soul and whomever else will stay up.
My God if we get the NAM's, RGEM blend of a storm this board would be VERY HAPPY!!!
But Shore folks woudl be in trouble!

amugs wrote:Very good trends at the evolution of the upper air dynamics.
We have less confluence being modelled on being it has backed off NW by about 100 miles, RGEM has it 150 miles along with teh NAM thus bringing the storm right up teh coast and then stalling SE off Montauk, LI.
EPS shows a few massive hit member with some very good left leaners. GEFS showed good improvements aloft but teh surface did not depict such.
More phasing of the Norther and Southern Vorts so things seem to be headed in the right direction.
The players are there for a dynamic storm still and we saw great changes aloft today which we needed.
Long day at the PR Paddy Parade and party so off to bed and hopefully I see 4 pages by 6:30AM by Al and Soul and whomever else will stay up.
My God if we get the NAM's, RGEM blend of a storm this board would be VERY HAPPY!!!
But Shore folks woudl be in trouble!

Good to have you posting about this storm!

THIS IS A PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: THE SREFS ARE GOING TO BLOW UP OUR FORUM. MAN YOUR BATTLE STATIONS!!!!!! WE ARE AT DEF-CON 5!! I REPEAT DEF-CON 5 HERE SO FAR FOLKS!!!!!! IM HEARING CHATTER AND ITS NOTHING BUT SWEET MUSIC TO OUR EARS!!!!!!

rb924119 wrote:THIS IS A PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: THE SREFS ARE GOING TO BLOW UP OUR FORUM. MAN YOUR BATTLE STATIONS!!!!!! WE ARE AT DEF-CON 5!! I REPEAT DEF-CON 5 HERE SO FAR FOLKS!!!!!! IM HEARING CHATTER AND ITS NOTHING BUT SWEET MUSIC TO OUR EARS!!!!!!

DEF-CON 1, it goes backwards...

rb924119 wrote:THIS IS A PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: THE SREFS ARE GOING TO BLOW UP OUR FORUM. MAN YOUR BATTLE STATIONS!!!!!! WE ARE AT DEF-CON 5!! I REPEAT DEF-CON 5 HERE SO FAR FOLKS!!!!!! IM HEARING CHATTER AND ITS NOTHING BUT SWEET MUSIC TO OUR EARS!!!!!!

u always do this lol pist the snow map and ensembles man lol

mikeypizano wrote:

rb924119 wrote:THIS IS A PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: THE SREFS ARE GOING TO BLOW UP OUR FORUM. MAN YOUR BATTLE STATIONS!!!!!! WE ARE AT DEF-CON 5!! I REPEAT DEF-CON 5 HERE SO FAR FOLKS!!!!!! IM HEARING CHATTER AND ITS NOTHING BUT SWEET MUSIC TO OUR EARS!!!!!!

DEF-CON 1, it goes backwards...

That would be if it's happening. We can't say it's happening yet, which is why I went with a "modest" Def-con 5 alarm. You want to express the threat level without jumping straight to paranoia, or in our demented cases, pure jubilation ahaha we can always increase the threat level as we draw nearer, so this was a calculated risk assessment :p

CP, say the ode.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:THIS IS A PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: THE SREFS ARE GOING TO BLOW UP OUR FORUM. MAN YOUR BATTLE STATIONS!!!!!! WE ARE AT DEF-CON 5!! I REPEAT DEF-CON 5 HERE SO FAR FOLKS!!!!!! IM HEARING CHATTER AND ITS NOTHING BUT SWEET MUSIC TO OUR EARS!!!!!!

u always do this lol pist the snow map and ensembles man lol

Can't yet lmao A) I don't have the proper subscription, B) it would be a breach of my source's terms of agreement lol gotta wait for them to be public.

rb924119 wrote:

mikeypizano wrote:

rb924119 wrote:THIS IS A PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: THE SREFS ARE GOING TO BLOW UP OUR FORUM. MAN YOUR BATTLE STATIONS!!!!!! WE ARE AT DEF-CON 5!! I REPEAT DEF-CON 5 HERE SO FAR FOLKS!!!!!! IM HEARING CHATTER AND ITS NOTHING BUT SWEET MUSIC TO OUR EARS!!!!!!

DEF-CON 1, it goes backwards...

That would be if it's happening. We can't say it's happening yet, which is why I went with a "modest" Def-con 5 alarm. You want to express the threat level without jumping straight to paranoia, or in our demented cases, pure jubilation ahaha we can always increase the threat level as we draw nearer, so this was a calculated risk assessment :p

Well, I would use 4 then...

I hear they blanket our area nicely! Hope that correct!!!!!

rb. Give me English. I want your opinion on what are the chances of 6”+ for the NYC AREA AND COST. Yes I understand it’s early and I won’t hold you to it.

darn please don't make fun of my I am messed up with these runs time without the time change..lol...the nam is coming now
i thought is was going to be 10 and the gfs is now 12:30 and would make the euro 3 am...and rb..how can you hear the nam is going to be hot...but its not out yet?

syosnow94 wrote:rb. Give me English. I want your opinion on what are the chances of 6”+ for the NYC AREA AND COST. Yes I understand it’s early and I won’t hold you to it.

Way too early for me to do this, but if I HAD to, I'd say low-medium, probably 35-45%. Reason: I feel a tighter track will result, thus introducing potential mixing issues, and we have seen how underwhelming accumulations have been in previous events thus far. That said, if the timing is right (overnight), I do think it would easily be achievable even with the aforementioned issues/risks.

weatherwatchermom wrote:darn please don't make fun of my I am messed up with these runs time without the time change..lol...the nam is coming now
i thought is was going to be 10 and the gfs is now 12:30 and would make the euro 3 am...and rb..how can you hear the nam is going to be hot...but its not out yet?

SREFs, mom, not NAM. HOWEVER, in the past the SREFs have been a good tip off to what the NAM comes in with, though that metric has been a poor performer this season.