Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:08 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 16 5aafdc720eb1a

I would doubt the bull's-eye verifies two to three days ahead of time as it almost never does as far as what area it will set up in. But I would say there's a good chance there will be a bull's-eye like that within 75 miles either way my guess would be somewhere northeast of where it is there when all is said and done.
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Post by billg315 on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:10 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 16 5aafdc720eb1a

I would doubt the bull's-eye verifies two to three days ahead of time as it almost never does as far as what area it will set up in. But I would say there's a good chance there will be a bull's-eye like that within 75 miles either way my guess would be somewhere northeast of where it is there when all is said and done.

Agreed. I have a hunch that you move that about 20 miles north and west and elongate it a bit (basically either side of I-95 right up into NYC, and you're closer to what we'll see.
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Post by rb924119 on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:13 pm

I would like to quote myself from a post I made back on the 13th in the Long Range thread (Page 21 if you would like to confirm) regarding the evolution of this upcoming threat. THIS IS NOT, I REPEAT, **NOT** TO SOUND POMPOUS, RATHER TO ILLUSTRATE A VERY IMPORTANT TAKEAWAY. The reason that I am quoting the below post is to show just how important pattern recognition is, and just how important getting your hands dirty with deep and detailed analysis, self-verification of prior forecasts, and a profound understanding of how to use weather modeling to produce a forecast. For those of you trying to learn, these underground networks are an incredible source of information. Take advantage of them and learn from the vast and, in my opinion, unmatched skill set of the members here and elsewhere!!

" Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
Post by rb924119 on Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:14 pm

Great post, Frank!!! However, I would (respectfully) contend that that we WILL see a PNA spike occur while our storm is traversing the nation. Why? Because our storm will be born out of the eastern Pacific trough. What will happen is our energy will split out from the main trough in response to another Pacific jet retraction and concomitant Rossby wave amplification. As a result, the parent trough will retrograde some further west into the Pacific and begin enhancing our increasing EPO ridge through Alaska. As this splits back, pumps the EPO, and our energy begins heading east in the mean flow, we will see a "bounce back" of our PNA heights in response to the splitting H5 trough, and Pacific amplification. Regardless of a phase, you're going to have a true bowling ball low cutting across the Heartland. The reason I really like this setup is because this low will be working a -NAO/EPO couplet, with a spiking PNA (in my opinion), which will allow the energy in our system to really consolidate rapidly as the trough sharpens and deepens. This is fantastic and why I'm so fired up - bowling ball low working with a coupled -EPO/NAO providing a truly cold air source spells trouble for anywhere north of that low. The PNA spike will only assist the matter. Where I get nervous for the coast, however, and why I'm expecting this to trend further northwest with time, is because we will be lacking a -AO, WPO and a true 50/50 low. We will also be missing favorable tropical forcing as the MJO will be crashing into the null-phase and the SOI has been predominantly positive, though mainly marginally in strength. As we continue to head toward the warm season, warm air will begin having more fight, and combined with the very warm western Atlantic water, I think it will aid in building western Atlantic heights in conjunction with the processes associated with the amplification upstream (and our system) and increase diabatic heat release, as I fully expect this to be a pretty large severe weather producer. Either way, very fun and exciting times ahead!!!!!

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:15 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Precip starts 5pm Tuesday and shuts off 6am Thursday...

shocked


just got home and did some quick reading..wow...


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Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:16 pm

amugs wrote:Isotherm has spoken and we should ALLLLLLLLL listen:

When you see the GFS this cold in the low-levels, one can rest assured that sticking will not be an issue.

glad to hear....wow...
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:20 pm

RB nice write up. So we both agree this beast will come further N/W. My thinking is a more traditional benchmark track from just SE of LI to Cape Cod. What's your current thinking of track?
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Post by frank 638 on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:20 pm

When do u think watches will go up

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:23 pm

frank 638 wrote:When do u think watches will go up
If EURO holds serve, then later in the afternoon/early evening.
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Post by Math23x7 on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:25 pm

Keep in mind that the GFS has trended west for the third straight run. It better not keep going or else it's rain for much of the region and sleet for Doc/CP.

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Post by Guest on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:28 pm

Math23x7 wrote:Keep in mind that the GFS has trended west for the third straight run.  It better not keep going or else it's rain for much of the region and sleet for Doc/CP.

YOU SERIOUSLY NEED TO STOP.

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:29 pm

Just catching up dayumm on end of 3km nam it stalls and ccb over large part area has be a godzilla or higher no? Ohhh and Frank mentioned winds b a issue hehe
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:29 pm

Math23x7 wrote:Keep in mind that the GFS has trended west for the third straight run.  It better not keep going or else it's rain for much of the region and sleet for Doc/CP.
Agreed. What I do like to see in future runs is a more NE climb up the coast once it gets to our latitude not a ENE movement it currently shows.
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Post by Guest on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:29 pm

Frank and rb. Are we not concerned about wave 1 affecting wave 2 anymore?

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Post by Scullybutcher on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:31 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:Keep in mind that the GFS has trended west for the third straight run.  It better not keep going or else it's rain for much of the region and sleet for Doc/CP.

YOU SERIOUSLY NEED TO STOP.  

Thing 2 may come further N and W but the cold will bleed further S and E
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Post by Math23x7 on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:32 pm

Scullybutcher wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:Keep in mind that the GFS has trended west for the third straight run.  It better not keep going or else it's rain for much of the region and sleet for Doc/CP.

YOU SERIOUSLY NEED TO STOP.  

Thing 2 may come further N and W but the cold will bleed further S and E

If that happens, it would be sleet for much of the region, much like 3/14/17. Low was NW, cold was SE, hence what we got then.

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Post by rb924119 on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:36 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:RB nice write up. So we both agree this beast will come further N/W. My thinking is a more traditional benchmark track from just SE of LI to Cape Cod. What's your current thinking of track?

Honestly haven't been following closely enough to provide an answer I'd be happy with, although it would not surprise me to see this end up around or even inside the Benchmark.

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Post by rb924119 on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:38 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Frank and rb. Are we not concerned about wave 1 affecting wave 2 anymore?

No, it's still in important factor. The further north/weaker it ends up, the better off we will be, as a forum (in general).

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Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:39 pm

I seriosuly doubt that a slight stronger wave 1 will affect wave 2 at all

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
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Post by SoulSingMG on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:41 pm

@crankywxguy's final call. When he isn't on board, I'm like half on board at most. :-/ Sometimes I wish I never found him lol

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 16 C5034110

READ WHY he feels this way:

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e031918.htm


Last edited by SoulSingMG on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:43 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:42 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:@crankywxguy's final call. When he isn't on board, I'm like half on board at most. :-/ Sometimes I wish I never found him lol

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 16 C5034110


He was wrong last storm

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS Trace (First snow Nov 12th)
November 12th = trace
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Post by amugs on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:42 pm

One thing is for sure - the stall of this bad boy E of SNJ - that is huge - it will transport the heaviest banding NW of this position. The block is really something hop wit slows down this storm and allows it to bomb out.

One thing that is quite interesting is does it become a triple phaser or even a quadruple. NAM was a hair away from bot in its runs - if that occurs then I think almost all wx boards short circuit.

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Post by amugs on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:45 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:@crankywxguy's final call. When he isn't on board, I'm like half on board at most. :-/ Sometimes I wish I never found him lol

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 16 C5034110

READ WHY he feels this way:

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e031918.htm

Soul do yourself a favor STOP following him!! I did for a while and when he poo pooed the 3 major hcanes until it was too late spoke volumes. He has a name cranky for a reason. He also poo pooed the blizzard last year and the Jan 4th storm this year. Choice is yours man.

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Post by SoulSingMG on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:45 pm

sroc4 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:@crankywxguy's final call. When he isn't on board, I'm like half on board at most. :-/ Sometimes I wish I never found him lol

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 16 C5034110


He was wrong last storm

Well, sorrrrt of. He didn't expect the heavier snows to wallop Mass the way it did, but he did call the eastern storm track, almost to a T, DAYS out, which prevented us from seeing the big snows. He just thinks the phasing for wave 2 won't happen until at least 70° on north.
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Post by SoulSingMG on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:47 pm

amugs wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:@crankywxguy's final call. When he isn't on board, I'm like half on board at most. :-/ Sometimes I wish I never found him lol

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 16 C5034110

READ WHY he feels this way:

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e031918.htm

Soul do yourself a favor STOP following him!! I did for a while and when he poo pooed the 3 major hcanes until it was too late spoke volumes. He has a name cranky for a reason. He also poo pooed the blizzard last year and the Jan 4th storm this year. Choice is yours man.

Listen, I've thought about it a lot lately, believe me. He's taking the joy out of my weather obsession! Lol.
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Post by Smittyaj623 on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:47 pm

I just don’t want another coastal mess, haven’t had a real good one all season really, except very early. Lets all go out with a BOOM!
us coasties can get a big boom?

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