Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Great 12Z model runs thus far. I would not get too hung up on snow maps just yet. Pay more attention to storm track and how the upper levels look. Its gorgeous. I would like to see the 2nd low make it further north in future runs to a more benchmark track. Otherwise this event screams Godzilla folks!

Isotherm has spoken and we should ALLLLLLLLL listen:

When you see the GFS this cold in the low-levels, one can rest assured that sticking will not be an issue.

Frank_Wx wrote:

I would doubt the bull's-eye verifies two to three days ahead of time as it almost never does as far as what area it will set up in. But I would say there's a good chance there will be a bull's-eye like that within 75 miles either way my guess would be somewhere northeast of where it is there when all is said and done.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

I would doubt the bull's-eye verifies two to three days ahead of time as it almost never does as far as what area it will set up in. But I would say there's a good chance there will be a bull's-eye like that within 75 miles either way my guess would be somewhere northeast of where it is there when all is said and done.

Agreed. I have a hunch that you move that about 20 miles north and west and elongate it a bit (basically either side of I-95 right up into NYC, and you're closer to what we'll see.

I would like to quote myself from a post I made back on the 13th in the Long Range thread (Page 21 if you would like to confirm) regarding the evolution of this upcoming threat. THIS IS NOT, I REPEAT, **NOT** TO SOUND POMPOUS, RATHER TO ILLUSTRATE A VERY IMPORTANT TAKEAWAY. The reason that I am quoting the below post is to show just how important pattern recognition is, and just how important getting your hands dirty with deep and detailed analysis, self-verification of prior forecasts, and a profound understanding of how to use weather modeling to produce a forecast. For those of you trying to learn, these underground networks are an incredible source of information. Take advantage of them and learn from the vast and, in my opinion, unmatched skill set of the members here and elsewhere!!

" Re: Long Range Thread 16.0
Post by rb924119 on Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:14 pm

Great post, Frank!!! However, I would (respectfully) contend that that we WILL see a PNA spike occur while our storm is traversing the nation. Why? Because our storm will be born out of the eastern Pacific trough. What will happen is our energy will split out from the main trough in response to another Pacific jet retraction and concomitant Rossby wave amplification. As a result, the parent trough will retrograde some further west into the Pacific and begin enhancing our increasing EPO ridge through Alaska. As this splits back, pumps the EPO, and our energy begins heading east in the mean flow, we will see a "bounce back" of our PNA heights in response to the splitting H5 trough, and Pacific amplification. Regardless of a phase, you're going to have a true bowling ball low cutting across the Heartland. The reason I really like this setup is because this low will be working a -NAO/EPO couplet, with a spiking PNA (in my opinion), which will allow the energy in our system to really consolidate rapidly as the trough sharpens and deepens. This is fantastic and why I'm so fired up - bowling ball low working with a coupled -EPO/NAO providing a truly cold air source spells trouble for anywhere north of that low. The PNA spike will only assist the matter. Where I get nervous for the coast, however, and why I'm expecting this to trend further northwest with time, is because we will be lacking a -AO, WPO and a true 50/50 low. We will also be missing favorable tropical forcing as the MJO will be crashing into the null-phase and the SOI has been predominantly positive, though mainly marginally in strength. As we continue to head toward the warm season, warm air will begin having more fight, and combined with the very warm western Atlantic water, I think it will aid in building western Atlantic heights in conjunction with the processes associated with the amplification upstream (and our system) and increase diabatic heat release, as I fully expect this to be a pretty large severe weather producer. Either way, very fun and exciting times ahead!!!!!

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4420
Reputation : 125
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 26
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile Send private message"

Frank_Wx wrote:Precip starts 5pm Tuesday and shuts off 6am Thursday...

just got home and did some quick reading..wow...

amugs wrote:Isotherm has spoken and we should ALLLLLLLLL listen:

When you see the GFS this cold in the low-levels, one can rest assured that sticking will not be an issue.

glad to hear....wow...

RB nice write up. So we both agree this beast will come further N/W. My thinking is a more traditional benchmark track from just SE of LI to Cape Cod. What's your current thinking of track?

When do u think watches will go up

frank 638 wrote:When do u think watches will go up

If EURO holds serve, then later in the afternoon/early evening.

Keep in mind that the GFS has trended west for the third straight run. It better not keep going or else it's rain for much of the region and sleet for Doc/CP.

Just catching up dayumm on end of 3km nam it stalls and ccb over large part area has be a godzilla or higher no? Ohhh and Frank mentioned winds b a issue hehe

Math23x7 wrote:Keep in mind that the GFS has trended west for the third straight run.  It better not keep going or else it's rain for much of the region and sleet for Doc/CP.

Agreed. What I do like to see in future runs is a more NE climb up the coast once it gets to our latitude not a ENE movement it currently shows.

Frank and rb. Are we not concerned about wave 1 affecting wave 2 anymore?

syosnow94 wrote:

Math23x7 wrote:Keep in mind that the GFS has trended west for the third straight run.  It better not keep going or else it's rain for much of the region and sleet for Doc/CP.

YOU SERIOUSLY NEED TO STOP.  

Thing 2 may come further N and W but the cold will bleed further S and E

Scullybutcher wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

Math23x7 wrote:Keep in mind that the GFS has trended west for the third straight run.  It better not keep going or else it's rain for much of the region and sleet for Doc/CP.

YOU SERIOUSLY NEED TO STOP.  

Thing 2 may come further N and W but the cold will bleed further S and E

If that happens, it would be sleet for much of the region, much like 3/14/17. Low was NW, cold was SE, hence what we got then.

nutleyblizzard wrote:RB nice write up. So we both agree this beast will come further N/W. My thinking is a more traditional benchmark track from just SE of LI to Cape Cod. What's your current thinking of track?

Honestly haven't been following closely enough to provide an answer I'd be happy with, although it would not surprise me to see this end up around or even inside the Benchmark.

syosnow94 wrote:Frank and rb. Are we not concerned about wave 1 affecting wave 2 anymore?

No, it's still in important factor. The further north/weaker it ends up, the better off we will be, as a forum (in general).

I seriosuly doubt that a slight stronger wave 1 will affect wave 2 at all

@crankywxguy's final call. When he isn't on board, I'm like half on board at most. :-/ Sometimes I wish I never found him lol



READ WHY he feels this way:

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e031918.htm

SoulSingMG wrote:@crankywxguy's final call. When he isn't on board, I'm like half on board at most. :-/ Sometimes I wish I never found him lol

He was wrong last storm

One thing is for sure - the stall of this bad boy E of SNJ - that is huge - it will transport the heaviest banding NW of this position. The block is really something hop wit slows down this storm and allows it to bomb out.

One thing that is quite interesting is does it become a triple phaser or even a quadruple. NAM was a hair away from bot in its runs - if that occurs then I think almost all wx boards short circuit.

SoulSingMG wrote:@crankywxguy's final call. When he isn't on board, I'm like half on board at most. :-/ Sometimes I wish I never found him lol



READ WHY he feels this way:

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e031918.htm

Soul do yourself a favor STOP following him!! I did for a while and when he poo pooed the 3 major hcanes until it was too late spoke volumes. He has a name cranky for a reason. He also poo pooed the blizzard last year and the Jan 4th storm this year. Choice is yours man.

sroc4 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:@crankywxguy's final call. When he isn't on board, I'm like half on board at most. :-/ Sometimes I wish I never found him lol

He was wrong last storm

Well, sorrrrt of. He didn't expect the heavier snows to wallop Mass the way it did, but he did call the eastern storm track, almost to a T, DAYS out, which prevented us from seeing the big snows. He just thinks the phasing for wave 2 won't happen until at least 70° on north.

amugs wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:@crankywxguy's final call. When he isn't on board, I'm like half on board at most. :-/ Sometimes I wish I never found him lol



READ WHY he feels this way:

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e031918.htm

Soul do yourself a favor STOP following him!! I did for a while and when he poo pooed the 3 major hcanes until it was too late spoke volumes. He has a name cranky for a reason. He also poo pooed the blizzard last year and the Jan 4th storm this year. Choice is yours man.

Listen, I've thought about it a lot lately, believe me. He's taking the joy out of my weather obsession! Lol.

I just don’t want another coastal mess, haven’t had a real good one all season really, except very early. Lets all go out with a BOOM!
us coasties can get a big boom?