Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

by gigs68 Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:20 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:And this is from a GLOBAL model that may not be handling dynamics very well. I expect a swath of Godzilla type snowfall amounts over a widespread area...which means...

What comes after which means?

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:22 pm

gigs68 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:And this is from a GLOBAL model that may not be handling dynamics very well. I expect a swath of Godzilla type snowfall amounts over a widespread area...which means...

What comes after which means?

Godzilla Storm Mode will be activated later today unless I do the responsible thing and hold off until tomorrow morning since we're still 60 hours away. But I am very confident in this set-up, as shown in my post on page 1.

by **billg315** Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:23 pm

which means time to stock up on some good beer and Nutella.

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:23 pm

Put that in ur snow pipe and smoke it!

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 02289410

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:25 pm

by **mikeypizano** Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:26 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
gigs68 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:And this is from a GLOBAL model that may not be handling dynamics very well. I expect a swath of Godzilla type snowfall amounts over a widespread area...which means...

What comes after which means?

Godzilla Storm Mode will be activated later today unless I do the responsible thing and hold off until tomorrow morning since we're still 60 hours away. But I am very confident in this set-up, as shown in my post on page 1.

DO IT!!!!

by Guest Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:43 pm

Incorporate my Godzilla roar into the homepage somehow so when you open the homepage you get a roar

by **dkodgis** Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:45 pm

CP, you can't visit clients and they cannot visit you unless the roads are safe; knowing the weather is the responsible thing to do.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:49 pm

SREFS

by bobjohnsonforthehall Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:50 pm

by **RJB8525** Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:53 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 Giphy11

by **lglickman1** Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:56 pm

Are the SREFs in range yer?

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:57 pm

Euro!!! Da crusher Godzilla high winds with wave 2.

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:00 pm

Frank last storm I saw almost nothing. Is that go be same issue here since u said same jackpot areas?

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:02 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Frank last storm I saw almost nothing. Is that go be same issue here since u said same jackpot areas?

It is going to be colder then last storm at the 925mb/850mb level. High winds may keep ratios down (and precip rates).

To be on the safe side (and keep expectations in check) I would use 8:1 ratios if you live in or around a major City

by Smittyaj623 Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:04 pm

Holy some SREF members are showing a roidzilla Posssible....

by **aiannone** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:06 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Frank last storm I saw almost nothing. Is that go be same issue here since u said same jackpot areas?

It is going to be colder then last storm at the 925mb/850mb level. High winds may keep ratios down (and precip rates).

To be on the safe side (and keep expectations in check) I would use 8:1 ratios if you live in or around a major City

Why would winds keep ratios down? Clashes snowflakes together?

by gigs68 Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:10 pm

aiannone wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Frank last storm I saw almost nothing. Is that go be same issue here since u said same jackpot areas?

It is going to be colder then last storm at the 925mb/850mb level. High winds may keep ratios down (and precip rates).

To be on the safe side (and keep expectations in check) I would use 8:1 ratios if you live in or around a major City

Why would winds keep ratios down? Clashes snowflakes together?

High winds will keep snow ratios down because snowflakes will fracture and lose their lacy structure (Per NOAA)

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:11 pm

aiannone wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Frank last storm I saw almost nothing. Is that go be same issue here since u said same jackpot areas?

It is going to be colder then last storm at the 925mb/850mb level. High winds may keep ratios down (and precip rates).

To be on the safe side (and keep expectations in check) I would use 8:1 ratios if you live in or around a major City

Why would winds keep ratios down? Clashes snowflakes together?

Dendrite's are typically smaller

Also,

EPS coming in with a big hit too

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 Image.png.c42f97d88509b906acd2b5a460d29494

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 Image.png.c42f97d88509b906acd2b5a460d29494

by **amugs** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:15 pm

lglickman1 wrote:Are the SREFs in range yer?

Yes and they have not wavered remarkable for this model.

Misse dtis due to class and a meeting but my phone and computer was going nuts with updates!
BRING IT HOME FRANK!!

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:15 pm

when can we get excited? I am not expecting to get a godzilla..just want a snow storm!

by **amugs** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:17 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:22 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:when can we get excited? I am not expecting to get a godzilla..just want a snow storm!

A snowstorm?

Get excited now.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:23 pm

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:24 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Frank last storm I saw almost nothing. Is that go be same issue here since u said same jackpot areas?

It is going to be colder then last storm at the 925mb/850mb level. High winds may keep ratios down (and precip rates).

To be on the safe side (and keep expectations in check) I would use 8:1 ratios if you live in or around a major City

is this a high wind warning possible storm? Or advisory in your opinion? Well if euro is actually higher than it shows I'd still see near a foot at 8 to 1 I'll b happy with 10 but gosh I hope for a crush.

by **jmanley32** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:26 pm

Dear lord eps at those totals the Indies gotta have some roids in there!

by **sroc4** Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:28 pm

sroc4 wrote:Well as expected we have seen models go back and forth; to and fro, and the final soln wouldn't show its self until at least Monday. Pattern recognition and model consistency, these two things will lead the way. The NAM, although has performed relatively well this winter has been very erratic with its surface output the past 24hrs. However it has looked similar at H5 to the Euro. One thing that MUST be kept in mind will be how far the northern frindge of the precip actually gets vs how far north it appears to get in modeling will likely be different. In all likelyhood the northern frindge will be further than modeled.

I don't have the time to do an in depth analysis so I will simply post the EPS individual members snow map trand. Pay little attention to the actual amounts on these maps, but rather the trend in snow axis placement, and notice the number of members zeroing in on a warning criteria type event for the last 4 runs beginning with 12z on the 17th and ending with last nights 00z.

12Z 17th:

00z 18th:

12z 18th:

00z 19th:

BOOYAA GRANDMA>>>BOOYA!!
Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 Eps_sn35

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 19 Eps_sn34

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