FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Models today like the Carolina's. Some even into GA/SC. Goes to show how strong that ridge is to the north.

Okay, we have to watch out for teh end of the month - the one behind Florence why?
Big Boy planets at play and Full moon.
Tropical Atlantic is serving up a fair amount of storms.

94L if it gets stronger which it could as it hits more conducive waters for development and lower shear could change the fears of an impact on the EC cause he could create a path that would weaken teh ridge and if strong enough disrupt the jet and placement of the players - to what affect again dont know but time will tell. This maybe the saving grace for the EC IF it gets stronger and slices through the Robust ridge before it closes things off.

amugs wrote:

Zhukov1945 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:We now have Invest 94L, we'll have to see what impacts, if any, this could have on the track in future runs

Preliminary any sense of what developing tropical activity ahead of Florence could do?  Slow her down?  Cool the waters?

Slow her down yes and try to weaken the ridge and allow her to travel a bit more North and then it recover cause teh ridge is being pumped by the PAC and jet streak overhead and the warm anomalous water of teh Hotlantic NATL that is. To me this isnt good cause it wold move her more north and when teh ridge recovers she will be forced to go under it and come west. Where west is anyones guess but if yuo factor that it is not seeing 94L on the model runs at this time then it could be 5 degree more maybe 10 all depending which woudl be devastation for the shores of DELMARVA on North - Tom is going to nail this I hate to say it - this guy has a tremendous track record for these set ups and in general (AKA Isotherm).

ICON is scary scenerio - this maybe the 1903 Hcane all over again, an anomalous pattern then and again now with a CV storm.

Little did he tell you that he stole his ideas from mine posted well beforehand

It's really cool to see multiple mets come to nearly identical ideas completely independently from each other and from different angles, though. It's what the science is actually all about, and if we get nothing more than great discussion and learning experiences from it, I'm just fine with that

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:

Zhukov1945 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:We now have Invest 94L, we'll have to see what impacts, if any, this could have on the track in future runs

Preliminary any sense of what developing tropical activity ahead of Florence could do?  Slow her down?  Cool the waters?

Slow her down yes and try to weaken the ridge and allow her to travel a bit more North and then it recover cause teh ridge is being pumped by the PAC and jet streak overhead and the warm anomalous water of teh Hotlantic NATL that is. To me this isnt good cause it wold move her more north and when teh ridge recovers she will be forced to go under it and come west. Where west is anyones guess but if yuo factor that it is not seeing 94L on the model runs at this time then it could be 5 degree more maybe 10 all depending which woudl be devastation for the shores of DELMARVA on North - Tom is going to nail this I hate to say it - this guy has a tremendous track record for these set ups and in general (AKA Isotherm).


ICON is scary scenerio - this maybe the 1903 Hcane all over again, an anomalous pattern then and again now with a CV storm.

Little did he tell you that he stole his ideas from mine posted well beforehand

It's really cool to see multiple mets come to nearly identical ideas completely independently from each other and from different angles, though. It's what the science is actually all about, and if we get nothing more than great discussion and learning experiences from it, I'm just fine with that

Ray - sorry but where did you post that - this board? 33? Brilliant minds thinking alike and I am no met my man you ace, armondo, frank, scott - tom, you guys are teh mets here !

12z Euro landfalls Florence into SC. Looks like the Ukie is on to something with its southern bias a la Irma

With Florence still 6-7 days away I would follow the ensembles more so than the ops. One things for sure, with that ridge on steroids you can pretty much kiss OTS goodbye.

amugs wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:

Zhukov1945 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:We now have Invest 94L, we'll have to see what impacts, if any, this could have on the track in future runs

Preliminary any sense of what developing tropical activity ahead of Florence could do?  Slow her down?  Cool the waters?

Slow her down yes and try to weaken the ridge and allow her to travel a bit more North and then it recover cause teh ridge is being pumped by the PAC and jet streak overhead and the warm anomalous water of teh Hotlantic NATL that is. To me this isnt good cause it wold move her more north and when teh ridge recovers she will be forced to go under it and come west. Where west is anyones guess but if yuo factor that it is not seeing 94L on the model runs at this time then it could be 5 degree more maybe 10 all depending which woudl be devastation for the shores of DELMARVA on North - Tom is going to nail this I hate to say it - this guy has a tremendous track record for these set ups and in general (AKA Isotherm).


ICON is scary scenerio - this maybe the 1903 Hcane all over again, an anomalous pattern then and again now with a CV storm.

Little did he tell you that he stole his ideas from mine posted well beforehand

It's really cool to see multiple mets come to nearly identical ideas completely independently from each other and from different angles, though. It's what the science is actually all about, and if we get nothing more than great discussion and learning experiences from it, I'm just fine with that

Ray - sorry but where did you post that - this board? 33? Brilliant minds thinking alike and I am no met my man you ace, armondo, frank, scott - tom, you guys are teh mets here !

Hahaha I'm just busting chops over here for some comedic relief, but I posted it on both early yesterday morning. I'll repost it for sake of continuity.

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Lock post for new reports Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
Post by rb924119 Yesterday at 8:55 am
Based on some quick and dirty analysis this morning, I actually really like the way the EURO Op looks with regard to its track of Florence - a North Carolina landfall (or very nearly), likely along the Outer Banks, with a run up the coast (or very nearly offshore) before curving back out to sea near our latitude. I think a more southerly track, similar, although slightly further north than the UKMET, looks good to start based on the combination of SST anomalies and their orientation/interplay with the North Atlantic ridge simultaneously with additional diabatic heat release feeding into the ridge from the restrengthening storm itself. However, I like the prognostication of the GEFS with regard to the trough cutting beneath blocking over central/eastern North America. I think that will be able to maintain a bit more intensity and get further east than what the GEM/EURO Ensembles currently show based on how the global setup currently looks, which would allow for a last-minute attempt at a full recurve, as climatology would suggest. Remember, these storms like to head where the trough is going, NOT where it "is". That's my preliminary thinking, reasoning, and track outlook, at least at this juncture.

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Just remember 3 days from now the NHC doesnt even have her to 60W longitude yet. Put another way she hasn't passed the Lesser Antilles yet. We still have a looong way to go here.

Was this new invest expected and now we have a new obstacle to mix in lol oh boy$!! Why was my last post deleted I figured it was pretty well said for me.

Eric Fisher's (solid MET) first stab out of Beantown...

Most of the Euro members now have a landfalling major cane. Oh boy.

That's landfall not necessarily saying the lower areas wouldn't have impacts right just immediatelandfall spot? I was pretty sure we wouldn't see a direct landfall but we don't need that for it to still be bad.

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Most of the Euro members now have a landfalling major cane. Oh boy.

looks like we may be put the woods none of the remnant lines even come up here really. Might that shift north or do you all think it go rd in well south of here?

Lee Goldberg is now on board. He thinks the Carolinas are currently in line for a direct hit, but cannot rule out for significant impacts up in our area. He also mentioned that OTS is increasingly unlikely.

I'm very surprised Florida is now more in the game than up here.

nutleyblizzard wrote:Lee Goldberg is now on board. He thinks the Carolinas are currently in line for a direct hit, but cannot rule out for significant impacts up in our area. He also mentioned that OTS is increasingly unlikely.

good cuz he would looked nuts to keep saying ots

jmanley32 wrote:That's landfall not necessarily saying the lower areas wouldn't have impacts right just immediatelandfall spot? I was pretty sure we wouldn't see a direct landfall but we don't need that for it to still be bad.

There is chance she plows into the Carolinas and hangs out there in a stall. We'd see minimal impacts here obviously. Something happens at our latitude that pulls her out to sea before reaching us or stalls/loops her south of us (EPS). It's like a hard right after affecting the Southeast, especially the GEFS.

Yeah but I don't think we can call a all clear 7 days out.

jmanley32 wrote:Yeah but I don't think we can call a all clear 7 days out.

Of course not. What is wrong with Upton lately, btw? Mt Holly at least has a hazardous weather outlook posted discussing not only Florence but the serious flood threat that exists for Monday and Tuesday region-wide—meanwhile Upton is calling for a breezy sprinkle next week I guess.

Western side of the ridge definitely weaker this run on 18z GFS so far, let's see if this leads to a more north track

Definitely had a different orientation toward it, but same result basically as 12z

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Yeah but I don't think we can call a all clear 7 days out.

Of course not. What is wrong with Upton lately, btw? Mt Holly at least has a hazardous weather outlook posted discussing not only Florence but the serious flood threat that exists for Monday and Tuesday region-wide—meanwhile Upton is calling for a breezy sprinkle next week I guess.

flooding from what? Forecast here says 30% showers. Tstorm chance tues to Fri. U know Upton is always last. Further east bit more time. They prolly have like a 12 hr difference behind my holly but honestly I dunno.

18z gfs has insane rain into pa. 997mb still a ts into area. Rides more north and stronger than 12z.

18z still pummelss the area with insane rain and strong maybe damaging winds. Heads back over water south of NYC barely moving.

Holy wow nj to NYC 10 to 15 inches of rain! And she looks like may Reintensify a bit once offshore run still coming in. Gosh I hope we aren't still deal with Florence on the following Monday which gfs portrays. We gonna need an arc if that rain is true.

18z GFS is a hurricane Irene redux for our area with catastrophic flooding. Good lord.