Long Range Thread 17.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by amugs on Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:05 pm

GEFS going colder
Nsfxwx compliment's for these


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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by amugs on Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:10 pm

Look at this colder progres sion by the GEFS on the twitter link.
 Wow but we'll see, still think W Bergen County N&W sees snows and the coastal plain sees wet snow flakes at this time.
https://twitter.com/NsfwWx/status/1060332550101581829?s=19

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by dkodgis on Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:13 pm

CP is standing on his deck right now, looking Northwest.

Me too.

Doc, maybe.
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by docstox12 on Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:31 am

dkodgis wrote:CP is standing on his deck right now, looking Northwest.

Me too.

Doc, maybe.

Yesterday, the look was better, but as of this morning, NWS has removed any mention of snow with the rains coming in next week.
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by sroc4 on Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:35 pm

Check out the results of the latest Pioneer model for Dec Jan Feb for temps and precip.  The pioneer model is a long range forecasting tool developed by Joe D'Aleo that incorporates over 20+ or so different factors to come up with a forecast.  It has scored very well over the years.   Notice Feb temps vs precip.  That look might mean suppression depression with bone chilling temps but little to no snowfall Or it could mean smaller amts of QPF, aka below normal precip, but still decent snow totals due to high ratio events.  Obv dont take these images as gospel but it is encouraging to say the least.



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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by billg315 on Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:16 pm

December looks good
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by Dunnzoo on Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:14 pm

As long as cold air is in place, we have a chance! That's all I ask, I hate mild winters!

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by docstox12 on Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:33 am

I prefer winters with normal temperatures and above average snow.That February map Doc has posted exemplifies the 1976-1977 winter of bitter cold but below normal snow.Can't stand suppression type scenarios like that 'snowmageddon" winter that pounded areas south of here.According to the maps Doc has up there, December looks good, January is 50-50 and February will be a suppression month (ugh).
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by rb924119 on Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:07 am

Posted this on another site earlier yesterday and just got a chance to forward it over. In regards to early next week:

“In my opinion, the potential (wintry) storm threat progged to impact our region early next week will come down to a battle between latent heat release versus the anomalous snowpack/positive feedback trend occurring in Canada in recent weeks, as has been discussed ad nauseum by *******. My reason comes from the fact that there is a complete Northern Hemispheric incongruency amongst major features that are all negatively interfering with each other. For example, whilenwe will have a -NAO to work with, we are lacking the presence of a true 50/50 low, which is a combination I like to see. Similarly, while we have a great -EPO signal, we are lacking a -AO. Third, our +PNA ridge spike (a dime-piece look of one, I might add) is likely to be offset by the presence of a sustained SOI spike in recent days passed. In addition to all of that, the signal of a -WPO will be countered by a Niño 1.2 spike in the final ten days of October. With the MJO likely to be a non-factor here (this is all in my opinion/analysis, of course), we have to look at things closer to home to try find any further clues.

In this case, the two factors come down to the two mentioned at the top, and while I fully agree with the sentiments regarding the Canadian feedbacks having a substantial impact on our sensible weather, especially down the road, I feel that it will be out-dueled by the latent heat release (this time). Why? Well, when you have such amplification with such large departures from normal in regions of their progression (i.e. a trough of this magnitude at this latitude) the results they produce are likely to follow suit. In regard to the trough in question, it will have quite a southerly fetch out ahead of it, and with such warmth in the Gulf and western Atlantic, I think that there will be a whole lot of precipitation and even thunderstorms across the Southeast. As a result, I feel the latent heat release in conjunction with sharp wavelengths of the amplified pattern will be enough to adequately raise heights ahead of our developing system, such that the steering flow will be corrected from the SSW instead of the SW. As such, while it will be a very near “miss” thermodynamically speaking, I expect the lower-level feature to pass either directly over our region, (just east of the Appalachian spine) or too close to our region to substantially override the warm advection aloft. I think we see one of those stereotypical cold, raw, nasty November rains. Quite possibly 33andrain for many lol just my opinion, and I can certainly see the other side of the argument, where it’s a very near “hit” thermodynamically, but favor the former as of now.”

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:14 am

I posted my thoughts on Tuesday storm in the November thread. I do not see a wintry threat for our area at this time.

Right now it looks like next week, after Tuesday's storm, will be below normal then there will be a gradual warm-up into next weekend and the week of the 19th. The warm-up will only bring slightly above normal temperatures. Nothing too drastic because the -EPO will still feed cooler air from Canada down into the eastern CONUS.


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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:21 am

The medium range weather up to Thanksgiving is not exciting. But once we get to the very end of November into December I think there will be meaningful activity which has the potential to bring us our first snowflakes of the season.

The MJO is shown to be in phase 2 then going through phases 3-4-5. This is in line with what we're seeing on the VP200 maps, where blue color shows the tropical wave propagating eastward.



These phases typically lead to milder weather for the eastern U.S., and models do show a small warm-up the week of Thanksgiving. But if this tropical wave is as potent as some of these maps are showing it is possible the MJO enters phases 6-7-8 which would suggest a cold pattern to come late November / early December.

Still long ways off. We will see!


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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Nov 10, 2018 8:56 am

It looks like to me like stated by others on here that after the 20th we warm up and it looks to last at least two weeks. It's not transient looks to more spring like and December may start warm
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by algae888 on Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:32 am

It looks like Tuesday snow chance has gone poof. However we should have two more chances after that one on Wednesday with the polar front coming through to see some scattered snow showers squalls or even a period of light snow then after that next weekend we have to watch as energy will be left in the Gulf of Mexico from Tuesday storm let's see if this one rides up the coast and see how much cold air we have the one thing that looks pretty clear there is no warm air in sight we're cold through the beginning of Thanksgiving week see what happens after that but the ensembles are hinting at an Aleutian low Alaskan Ridge and cut off cut-off low over the Southwest and an Nao that keeps switching from negative to positive so we'll see as we get closer to December
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by algae888 on Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:45 pm

Today's Canadian ensembles look fantastic in the very long range I know to be taken with a grain of salt but negative EPO negative A O negative n a o positive PNA Aleutian trough and trough in the east that would be for the weekend after Thanksgiving however the GEFS looks nothing like that. I think that's where the pattern is heading as we head into December sometimes the models try and rush it but that looks like the predominant pattern throughout this winter we shall see
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by algae888 on Sat Nov 10, 2018 6:29 pm

It looks like we have one Coastal low after another on the latest models from today's 12z runs once these patterns lock in it's hard to break them down what's very encouraging is the very active subtropical jet hopefully and most likely it will remain through winter National Weather Service disco has the mention of snow for the area next weekend
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by docstox12 Yesterday at 6:31 am

algae888 wrote:It looks like we have one Coastal low after another on the latest models from today's 12z runs once these patterns lock in it's hard to break them down what's very encouraging is the very active subtropical jet hopefully and most likely it will remain through winter National Weather Service disco has the mention of snow for the area next weekend

One coastal low after another reminds me of the 1995-1996 pattern.That one locked in for constant snowstorms.
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by algae888 Yesterday at 7:30 am

Okay boys and girls first legit snow chance next week Thursday night and Friday all models have snow for parts of our area from a coastal low that develops from leftover energy from Tuesday storm still have a lot of things to iron out especially track of the low and where high pressure sets up is it over Maine or does it move East off the coastal Waters that would have big implications on whether we keep the cold air locked in or we get a warm easterly fetch off the water the former would mean snow for a good part of our area the latter snow for the interior and yes doc it reminds me of 95-96 and I believe that year had storm after storm in November also very wet pattern I like the similarities
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by nutleyblizzard Yesterday at 7:55 am

docstox12 wrote:
algae888 wrote:It looks like we have one Coastal low after another on the latest models from today's 12z runs once these patterns lock in it's hard to break them down what's very encouraging is the very active subtropical jet hopefully and most likely it will remain through winter National Weather Service disco has the mention of snow for the area next weekend

One coastal low after another reminds me of the 1995-1996 pattern.That one locked in for constant snowstorms.
Starting to get excited as we get closer to the start of meteorological winter which begins on December 1st. We have a textbook southern jet which exits the GOM and rides up the eastern seaboard. The MJO looks to remain in favorable 8-1-2 mode for the majority of winter with only brief warmups being felt as per the colder waters being seen in the Indian ocean. That equates to frequent winter storms for us as well as our mid Atlantic and New England neighbors. The only question remains is how much of a -NAO do we see? That will be the determining factor between moderate and major events. There's no doubt we will rival 95-96 with blocking in place.
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by sroc4 Yesterday at 9:16 am

algae888 wrote:Okay boys and girls first legit snow chance next week Thursday night and Friday all models have snow for parts of our area from a coastal low that develops from leftover energy from Tuesday storm still have a lot of things to iron out especially track of the low and where high pressure sets up is it over Maine or does it move East off the coastal Waters that would have big implications on whether we keep the cold air locked in or we get a warm easterly fetch off the water the former would mean snow for a good part of our area the latter snow for the interior and yes doc it reminds me of 95-96 and I believe that year had storm after storm in November also very wet pattern I like the similarities

Im extremely hesitant to get my hopes up on this threat for anyone other than The Aresian….for now. Yes some higher elevations may see some flakes fly but as true threat for sig accum for the vast majority of this board coverage area...again im extremely hesitant..at this time

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by syosnow94 Yesterday at 9:27 am

All the talk of 96/96 similarities has me pretty damn excited. I’ve referenced that winter on here many many times. All time favorite winter from a snowfall perspective. NOTHING ELSE HAS EVEN COME CLOSE. I’m pretty sure we had 17 snow events of 3” or more for our area that Winter. I wound up with over 90”. I was living in Bellerose at the time on the Nassau/Queens border.
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by TheAresian Yesterday at 9:50 am

sroc4 wrote:
algae888 wrote:Okay boys and girls first legit snow chance next week Thursday night and Friday all models have snow for parts of our area from a coastal low that develops from leftover energy from Tuesday storm still have a lot of things to iron out especially track of the low and where high pressure sets up is it over Maine or does it move East off the coastal Waters that would have big implications on whether we keep the cold air locked in or we get a warm easterly fetch off the water the former would mean snow for a good part of our area the latter snow for the interior and yes doc it reminds me of 95-96 and I believe that year had storm after storm in November also very wet pattern I like the similarities

Im extremely hesitant to get my hopes up on this threat for anyone other than The Aresian….for now.  Yes some higher elevations may see some flakes fly but as     true threat for sig accum for the vast majority of this board coverage area...again im extremely hesitant..at this time

I'm always hesitant to get my hopes up for significant snow. If memory serves, the geography of my area helps lead to the energy transfer that creates Miller B systems. (I'm probably wrong here, but I think it involves vertical stacking). As for the coastal systems, I'm too far inland the vast majority of the time. A storm that drops 6-8 here is considered huge.
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by algae888 Yesterday at 10:34 am

sroc4 wrote:
algae888 wrote:Okay boys and girls first legit snow chance next week Thursday night and Friday all models have snow for parts of our area from a coastal low that develops from leftover energy from Tuesday storm still have a lot of things to iron out especially track of the low and where high pressure sets up is it over Maine or does it move East off the coastal Waters that would have big implications on whether we keep the cold air locked in or we get a warm easterly fetch off the water the former would mean snow for a good part of our area the latter snow for the interior and yes doc it reminds me of 95-96 and I believe that year had storm after storm in November also very wet pattern I like the similarities

Im extremely hesitant to get my hopes up on this threat for anyone other than The Aresian….for now.  Yes some higher elevations may see some flakes fly but as     true threat for sig accum for the vast majority of this board coverage area...again im extremely hesitant..at this time
Ya scott extremely hard to get snow in our area in November with that said however we're going to have an anomalously cold air mass in place temps can get down as cold as 20in are northwest suburbs and below freezing at the coast Thursday morning I would not look for an all out snow storm but snow to rain event is quite possible with some small accumulations even down to the coast. Das German says yes and so do many GEFS members also the Euro had small accumulation for our area although it was slower. we need moisture to quickly come in behind this cold snap
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by frank 638 Yesterday at 11:32 am

The weather channel has snow to rain for Thursday and more rain for Friday i want this to be a snow event for everyone . I am tired of these rainstorm we don't live in Seattle

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by algae888 Yesterday at 2:33 pm

Today's euro is 4 to 8 in for Orange County and Northwest New Jersey Thursday night into Friday morning 1 to 3 in I 287 up to the Orange County Line nothing at the coast. Still optimistic we'll see our first flakes from this system we shall see
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by amugs Yesterday at 4:39 pm

algae888 wrote:Today's euro is 4 to 8 in for Orange County and Northwest New Jersey Thursday night into Friday morning 1 to 3 in I 287 up to the Orange County Line nothing at the coast. Still optimistic we'll see our first flakes from this system we shall see

For teh coastal plain and LI they may see a mix but its mostly rain. Don't underestimate teh CAD signature and that these Southern Storms have come in faster the progged even by a few hours it would be a huge difference in the Ptypes.

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