January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Page 1 of 18 1, 2, 3 ... 9 ... 18  Next

Go down

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:53 pm

Our first major winter storm event of the season carries a lot of uncertainty. For starters, there is little agreement among guidance on the exact track of the low pressure system. Most of this is due to the differences at the 500mb level with respect to the southern stream energy which should be fully sampled on tonight's 00z model runs.

Take the last 3 runs of the GFS OP for example.



The low pressure center is gradually shifting more S&E late Saturday night / early Sunday morning. This is a critical point because it will ultimately determine the extent of the WAA and how far north it gets. Fortunately the banana High to the north, there due to a ridge break from the -EPO, will prevent this system from being a full-on cutter. Something we have been use to this winter.

One reason the GFS and other models seem to be trending a little more S&E each consecutive run is because of a more positively tilted trough. Notice the latest trend between the 12z and 18z GFS.



See how heights are flatter over the Metro area?

This is also evident on the NAM.



Based off the latest trends and what I expect models to do later tonight and tomorrow, here is my 1st call snow map.



I think there is a chance the 3-6" marker can move into CNJ, NYC, and LI but I am not buying into that much accumulation when I look at the temperature profiles (850mb, 925mb, and Surface). The mid-levels warm up way too quickly because of the initial track of the primary into the southwestern Mid-Atlantic. Because ice accretion carries significant impact I've decided to not map an "ice map" yet for this system. I will outline an area tomorrow of where I think icing could be a major concern. Right now, I am thinking it will be N&W of I-95, the same areas getting hit with at least 6" of snow. Between the snow and ice there could be very hazardous living conditions with scattered power outages. Please be careful.

I'm also not buying into any back-end snow just yet. I know that opportunity exists because of some phasing that occurs with the PV. There are simply too many unknowns right now. Most likely I will have a 2nd call snow map tomorrow.

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18598
Reputation : 271
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 26
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by billg315 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:01 pm

Looks good Frank. Well maybe not “good” for some, but accurate.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2566
Reputation : 139
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 44
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Guest on Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:14 pm

Yeah looks “GREAT”. If you’re a masochist. Literally if this verifies with how the rest of the winter has gone we will be looking at 20”+ south of me 20”+ north of me 20”+ west of me and since there is no east that’s it. Absolutely incredible kick in the you k ow what. TWC agrees its unreal



Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:23 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Yeah looks “GREAT”. If you’re a masochist. Literally if this verifies with how the rest of the winter has gone we will be looking at 20”+ south of me 20”+ north of me 20”+ west of me and since there is no east that’s it. Absolutely incredible kick in the you k ow what. TWC agrees its unreal  

how depressing and to boot when everyone else is off from school on Monday we have to go because of construction delays at the beginning of year..so bummed..hope the tables turn for the next chance
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2324
Reputation : 56
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 55
Location : Hazlet Township

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by billg315 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:24 pm

Syos, sad to say, barring a real big change in models in the next 24 hours, I think 80% of the people on this board will be disappointed in the outcome.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2566
Reputation : 139
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 44
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:25 pm

Thank you for the write up Frank..sad but appreciate the explanation
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2324
Reputation : 56
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 55
Location : Hazlet Township

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:27 pm

Are we still going to freeze up overnight Sunday into Monday?
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2324
Reputation : 56
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 55
Location : Hazlet Township

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Guest on Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:29 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:Are we still going to freeze up overnight Sunday into Monday?
. Of course we will there will be no moisture or storm so it will get cold. Then by Wednesday there will be another storm but we will be in the 40s. Then we will get cold again and next weekends potential will screw us again

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by billg315 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:30 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:Are we still going to freeze up overnight Sunday into Monday?

Anything liquid still around Sunday afternoon (snow, slush, puddles) will be solid ice by Sunday night. Going down to near Zero Sunday night.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2566
Reputation : 139
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 44
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:31 pm

billg315 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Are we still going to freeze up overnight Sunday into Monday?

Anything liquid still around Sunday afternoon (snow, slush, puddles) will be solid ice by Sunday night. Going down to near Zero Sunday night.
thank you
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2324
Reputation : 56
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 55
Location : Hazlet Township

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Dunnzoo on Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:37 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Yeah looks “GREAT”. If you’re a masochist. Literally if this verifies with how the rest of the winter has gone we will be looking at 20”+ south of me 20”+ north of me 20”+ west of me and since there is no east that’s it. Absolutely incredible kick in the you k ow what. TWC agrees its unreal  



OMG "Harper" kiss of death right there if you're a Mets fan! lol

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019      10.75"

Snowfall winter of 2017-2018       50.15"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017      45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 3858
Reputation : 40
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 57
Location : Westwood, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:01 pm

Thanks Frank, I will take my 3-6 and will see what your thinking is on the ice threat tomorrow, from what I have seen I think I will be in this threat area which isn't good but a experience I have not had except may when I was growing up in CT.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15583
Reputation : 72
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by amugs on Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:06 pm

Good call Frank and thanks for sharing.
The ice is gonna keep the WSW up for my area and others  not the snow accumulations. We need 6 plus for that.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10058
Reputation : 146
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:12 pm

amugs wrote:Good call Frank and thanks for sharing.
The ice is gonna keep the WSW up for my area and others  not the snow accumulations. We need 6 plus for that.
Yeah mugs I agree, I looked up your location and we line up if you go just a little south of east on a straight line from you to the hudson and across we meet. I think the ice will be highest in the 3-6 area and the southern part of the 6+ area. Maybe I am wrong but thats my thinking.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15583
Reputation : 72
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by HectorO on Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:00 pm

Man, Bloomingdale is literally on the border of the 3-6 and 6-12 line.
HectorO
HectorO
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 811
Reputation : 12
Join date : 2013-01-11

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:00 pm

I saw some videos on YouTube of what it looked like after 0.5 inch ice and it was really really bad. The nws has some spots including my area on their experimental ice map along with several models having more than 0.5 So I couldn't even imagine. Smart your not making a map right away frank its a really bad scenario if happened and you wanna be sure your as close to right as possible. Its def be talked about in the general community so its not just models showing the usual bogus ice.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15583
Reputation : 72
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by aiannone on Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:18 pm

Apparently NAM coming in south and east
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3690
Reputation : 76
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by heehaw453 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:28 pm

NAM much further se this 0Z run. 850s cooler. So far so good.

heehaw453

Posts : 261
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Vinnydula on Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:33 pm

Nam your pulling me back in
Vinnydula
Vinnydula
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 678
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2013-12-12
Location : Dobbs ferry

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:34 pm

heehaw453 wrote:NAM much further se this 0Z run. 850s cooler. So far so good.

That's the word so far, plus a better front end dump of snow for most above I78
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6112
Reputation : 187
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 57
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY - OTI Historical thread

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by nutleyblizzard on Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:36 pm

Wow! NAM looks to be a good 100 miles SE from 18z Much colder run!
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1549
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 52
Location : Nutley, new jersey

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:37 pm

This ice and snow threat combo is no joke, and forcasting winds gusting to 30-40mph NOT GOOD. I have not seen all of the parameters at significant before.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Briefings/WxBriefing_FB.pdf

jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15583
Reputation : 72
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by heehaw453 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:39 pm

Yes. This NAM run be completely frozen 78 N. Surface temperatures remain in mid 20s. Much more snow too. I’d sign up for that run right now.

heehaw453

Posts : 261
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:41 pm

Oh baby 12km NAM snow map! But it looks like major icing still.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15583
Reputation : 72
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:42 pm

[url=https://servimg.com/view/19365188/415][/url

Big difference
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4258
Reputation : 30
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 41
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 18 1, 2, 3 ... 9 ... 18  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum