February 2019 Observations and Discussions

30.0° and the ice world Hoth outside my window.

0.8 inches of snow followed by a lot of ice which I refuse to measure.

24.9 inches on the season here. NYC now at an even 10.0 inches avoiding becoming only the tenth season in history of a single digit seasonal total.

I'm still hopeful seasonal averages can be reached but at this point in time even if they somehow were this winter will still rank as awful.

Hard to get a clear, focused shot, but I’ll try.

WOW what a layer of ice on everything here this morning I'd have to say a good .10-.15" of coating everything maybe a bit more.
Side streets were not good, main roads were okay overall, some town were getting spreaders out as I was driving at 7AM.
Slop storm but felt like winter for a day and a morning.

Received just under 2" yesterday and a nice glaze of ice this morning, probably about .15".

Thanks Brownie! Looks awesome, minus the treacherous ice of course. That should melt soon if it hasn’t already, right?

SENJsnowman wrote:Thanks Brownie! Looks awesome, minus the treacherous ice of course. That should melt soon if it hasn’t already, right?

I took those photos before I left for work this morning.  There were trees like that all along my route to work, and those in the sun were already dripping and mostly melted at 8 am.

1.5" of snow and .13" of freezing rain. Everything looked beautiful this morning and melting off nicely. 46° now.

amugs wrote:WOW what a layer of ice on everything here this morning I'd have to say a good .10-.15" of coating everything maybe a bit more.
Side streets were not good, main roads were okay overall, some town were getting spreaders out as I was driving at 7AM.
Slop storm but felt like winter for a day and a morning.

Not bad estimation by my untrained eye huh zoo LOL!! Thanks for the official measurements there stormspotter!!

Sunny, 47 degrees.With yesterday's 1.3 inches, I am at 25.5 inches for the season, way below normal but considering the horrible pattern, not as bad as it could have been.

Winds on Monday are gonna be fierce by the looks of it (cc Jman )

SoulSingMG wrote:Winds on Monday are gonna be fierce by the looks of it (cc Jman )

Upton: "Outside of aforementioned rain, there will be a significant
strengthening in winds as the system begins to depart, and cold
advection strengthens Sunday night into Monday night. At the
very least a wind advisory may be needed, though there is
potential for a few hours of winds bordering on high wind -
sustained 40 mph with gusts close to 58 mph, especially across
the east end with the departing low level jet Monday morning."

SoulSingMG wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Winds on Monday are gonna be fierce by the looks of it (cc Jman )

Upton: "Outside of aforementioned rain, there will be a significant
strengthening in winds as the system begins to depart, and cold
advection strengthens Sunday night into Monday night. At the
very least a wind advisory may be needed, though there is
potential for a few hours of winds bordering on high wind -
sustained 40 mph with gusts close to 58 mph, especially across
the east end with the departing low level jet Monday morning."

Meh I will be stuck inside at work all day, cant even see outside so hope it doesnt work out lol

docstox12 wrote:Sunny, 47 degrees.With yesterday's 1.3 inches, I am at 25.5 inches for the season, way below normal but considering the horrible pattern, not as bad as it could have been.

25.5? Man come on I am sitting here with maybe 10 inches if you scrape up all the little dustings and add in yesterdays 2.  Just pathetic, but granted you usually do see more but you do have 2.5x more than here. And I have yet to have anything left the next day on any storms even Nov as it poured all night.

I'm at 20" for the season to date. Pattern may become more favorable towards the end of February, but am very skeptical of big bang finish here. 1/3 of the 40" that I got last March would put me to normal snowfall.

heehaw453 wrote:I'm at 20" for the season to date.  Pattern may become more favorable towards the end of February, but am very skeptical of big bang finish here.  1/3 of the 40" that I got last March would put me to normal snowfall.

With NYC's 30 year average at 30 inches, at least come Jan 2021 when they re-calculate them, I think you're selling yourself a little short thinking 33 inches is your average.

People are very hung up on the current 30 year snowfall averages which throughout the area are at historic lows because they still include the abysmal 1980's and 1990's in those averages. The current averages everyone looks at are for Jan 1981 - Dec 2010. In less than 2 years when the 1980's are no longer part of the calculation the averages will rise about 5 inches throughout the area.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:I'm at 20" for the season to date.  Pattern may become more favorable towards the end of February, but am very skeptical of big bang finish here.  1/3 of the 40" that I got last March would put me to normal snowfall.

With NYC's 30 year average at 30 inches, at least come Jan 2021 when they re-calculate them, I think you're selling yourself a little short thinking 33 inches is your average.

People are very hung up on the current 30 year snowfall averages which throughout the area are at historic lows because they still include the abysmal 1980's and 1990's in those averages. The current averages everyone looks at are for Jan 1981 - Dec 2010. In less than 2 years when the 1980's are no longer part of the calculation the averages will rise about 5 inches throughout the area.

Personally I think looking at a 30 yr avg is garbage. I think the abysmal years of the 80's and 90's need to be included. The avg should be 100 yrs minimum. Time for you and me vs mother's natures time scale are not one and the same. That's my humble opinion of course.

sroc4 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:I'm at 20" for the season to date.  Pattern may become more favorable towards the end of February, but am very skeptical of big bang finish here.  1/3 of the 40" that I got last March would put me to normal snowfall.

With NYC's 30 year average at 30 inches, at least come Jan 2021 when they re-calculate them, I think you're selling yourself a little short thinking 33 inches is your average.

People are very hung up on the current 30 year snowfall averages which throughout the area are at historic lows because they still include the abysmal 1980's and 1990's in those averages. The current averages everyone looks at are for Jan 1981 - Dec 2010. In less than 2 years when the 1980's are no longer part of the calculation the averages will rise about 5 inches throughout the area.

Personally I think looking at a 30 yr avg is garbage.  I think the abysmal years of the 80's and 90's need to be included.  The avg should be 100 yrs minimum.  Time for you and me vs mother's natures time scale are not one and the same.  That's my humble opinion of course.  

I agree, but of course everything that's published is the 30 year averages that the NWS decided to go with 100 odd years ago. However in this case for NYC the next calculated 30 year average will be more representative of the norm.

The 150 year snowfall average in NYC is 28.8 inches per season, the new 30 year averages calculated in 2021 will be about 30 inches give or take an inch, pretty much in line with the historical averages.

Where it did skew results was for the 1971-2000 and the current 1981-2010 averages which were 22.2 and 25.8 respectively. These last 20 years the 30 year averages were skewed on the low side. As I stated earlier the upcoming 30 year average 1991-2020 will be in line with the 150 year average.

Well if the Euro is right, and the NWS seems to think so as HWW are already hoisted for a abnormally large area of PA and western NY and HWO mentioning HWW potential for the area, it apears the timing will be midday Monday into Monday night which means I may get out of work in time to experience some of it. Here is the Euro wind map, very impressive, usually its spotty with a wind threat but this is the entire area and good lord look at upstate NY 70-80mph! And these behind system wind events pan out more than other wind threats, so we will see.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong low pressure passing through the Great Lakes and into
southeastern Canada Sunday and Monday is expected to produce strong
winds across the area late Sunday night and Monday. While winds are
currently expected to range primarily between 25-35 mph with gusts
between 40-55 mph, there is a low potential for damaging wind gusts
of up to 60 mph.

Too hot, and too humid....

HIGH WIND WATCH just hoisted region-wide!

Quietace wrote:Too hot, and too humid....

It was 78° here in San Antonio today, but very dry after the front came through. Under a red flag warning most of today. Feels good!

Light rain occasionally mixed with sleet another lousy boring rain storm

Wow euro winds

Mount Holly says yes to to the winds.

High Wind Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
324 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

New Castle-Cecil-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-
Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-
Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-
Philadelphia-Eastern Chester-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Elkton, New Brunswick,
Freehold, Sandy Hook, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden,
Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Millville,
Hammonton, Cape May Court House, Ocean City, Atlantic City,
Long Beach Island, Wharton State Forest, Media, Philadelphia,
West Chester, Kennett Square, Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
324 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM
EST MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a High
Wind Warning, which is in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM
EST Monday. The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...West 25 to 35 mph with 55 to 60 mph gusts.

* TIMING...A surge of winds just behind the passage of a strong
cold front early this evening may result in 45 to 55 mph gusts.
Otherwise, winds overnight will generally gust 35 to 45 mph.
Starting Monday morning, strong winds gusting 55 to 60 mph will
affect the area.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power
lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ground is quite saturated, and
additional heavy rainfall this morning will add to this. It
will not take much wind to result in downed trees and power
lines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.