Snow Events Week of 02/17

Nam got the sleetfest right last storm, had it again for this one but busted. GFS was wrong last storm, right for this one... and we were dry slotted last night. ugh I am beyond frustrated. Who knows what will happen Wednesday.

1/2 inch ice in Stillwater Nj at 1190 feet altitude, holding at 31 degrees.

29 and light snow. Pretty out there this morning. Eyeballing 3 inches. Picked up some additional snow overnight after initial 2 inches.

In Mystic Connecticut this weekend so can’t report from Orange County. Gonna have to rely on Doc or Damian for the one.

Here in Mystic CT 0.2 inches and I’m being generous.

Dunnzoo wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:Sorry to hear that last night crapped out on everyone...not surprised, but still sorry to hear it.

Looked like you got a lot of rain. How much did you get?

Not sure, but probably a half inch or so. It came down pretty good for several hours. Maybe even 3/4-1" if it kept up after midnight. We got the precip but it was never close to cold enough for us.

No snow here of course just all rain worst winter ever

Winter Storm Watches up for Washington DC. Interesting. The watch is calling for a front end thump of 5"

We've been bitten by the midlevel warming bug all winter, not trusting anything, but wouldn't be surprised with a southern slider either..

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:In Mystic Connecticut this weekend so can’t report from Orange County. Gonna have to rely on Doc or Damian for the one.

Here in Mystic CT 0.2 inches and I’m being generous.

CP we should meet up im just slightly north of you (like 15 min) staying at mohegan sun casino through wed with the fam.  We are taking my daughter to see this kids Bop concert. I am on the 21st floor and have not been outside but to me looks like a light coating of ice.

Another diassapointing storm, Wed storm is.more for DC to PHI in my opinion. The HP as modelled in CNY ain't bringing us snow until it's coots east, unlike the last storm whee we had it I Quebec and it drained cold air into our area for many hours. This is not that set up.
Rb is dead on with his call for last night and Wed  
Rush hour issue Wed yes.
The 2" fir.my rare was a crusty glazing of ice on colder surfaces and wet roads.
Now the Euro is showing for Sun/Mon next week a trough in the EC and an impressive EPO and N to Pos PNA.

Pretty cool looking run on the 12z Nam. I wonder if I am correctly seeing what is being depicted here. And if so, Frank is this part of what you do not buy into?

The first thing I see is that there is a low in the 'bread basket', heading slowly towards the western GL. At the same time our storm has developed in the Gulf and tries to cut northeast towards the eastern GL. But our system runs into a High centered over S NE:



The Nam shows an expansive and moderately strong precip shield out ahead of the system. The precip shield is especially strong on the northern fringe and blossoming due east (perfect for us!). At the same time that other low tracks north and then east through southern Canada.



Then it looks like all the gulf moisture literally gets derailed by the high and most of it's energy gets diverted due east and ots. This happens even the high itself starts moving south and west itself. I find that interesting because I would think (maybe guess is a better word ha ha) that the high's original position coupled with it's sw movement would force the precip north and west of the high, not south and east.

At any rate, it looks like the result is that a secondary low does pop off the coast of NJ and start moving northeast from there. But now I notice how dry it is right behind that, our region. It looks like we should be getting soaked as this warm low starts to move NE. But it's mostly dry, especially after that second half of that initial precip surge.



And as that first low keeps working its way north and east look at the enormous precip shield (all snow btw!) that stretches about 2000 miles across our north! Maybe this sucks all the moisture away from our area. I mean we still get rain on this run, but not the total soaker I would expect. It kinda looks like we are in an inverted comma head also.

And so it makes sense (based on all of my conclusions of course) that Nam shows a net + snow pack event for the whole region and a modestly decent one for most. The front end thump is modeled as more impressive than the back end taint.




Any way, just my thoughts/observations/questions/guesses.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:In Mystic Connecticut this weekend so can’t report from Orange County. Gonna have to rely on Doc or Damian for the one.

Here in Mystic CT 0.2 inches and I’m being generous.

CP, just a coating of some white material.Total bust, NWS had us for 3 to 5 inches the other day.Looks like Weds-Thurs will be about an inch of slop.

It was one of those storms where it was ridiculous to call the plow guy but heavy enough at 1 inch of slop to wish you had. Tonight with the low going to 16, it will all freeze if it is still down on the blacktop. I have high hopes for Wed as in 3-4 inches. I teach at West Point Weds and that place closes up tight, like 218, at the first sign of anything. They code red it and shut down the gates. It is not pretty going up and down the Long Mountain. I am seeing reports of early afternoon around 1 pm to see snow start, then overnight ice. I can be disappointed in the winter but I like staying home, alive.

dkodgis wrote:It was one of those storms where it was ridiculous to call the plow guy but heavy enough at 1 inch of slop to wish you had. Tonight with the low going to 16, it will all freeze if it is still down on the blacktop. I have high hopes for Wed as in 3-4 inches. I teach at West Point Weds and that place closes up tight, like 218, at the first sign of anything. They code red it and shut down the gates. It is not pretty going up and down the Long Mountain.  I am seeing reports of early afternoon around 1 pm to see snow start, then overnight ice. I can be disappointed in the winter but I like staying home, alive.

Yep, Damian, I hate that Route 6 on a clear day.My Buddy's wife is a radiologist who works in Stoney Point and she got stuck 8 hours on Route 6 that November snowstorm trying to get back to Monroe.Hope it all works out.Hey, you can stay at the Thayer if you can't get back, love that place.

To follow up with a discussion that I believe I was having yesterday with @CCB! regarding this upcoming system, I again believe that this will ultimately end up warmer than currently progged based on some quick analysis of the hemispheric and tropical states. Therefore, I believe this will be another event where the change from any snow will likely occur fairly quickly and work to limit accumulations to nuisance values for much of our board’s area. However, unlike this most recent event, the overall QPF (and yes, I’m including the generality of “frozen” precipitation types here) will be substantially higher due to the moisture sourcing from the Gulf of Mexico.

12Z Euro has it snowing moderately for about 6-7 hours.  If that's bogus and mid-levels warm then this is an inch to sleet very similar to what we had last week, otherwise 3-4" is reasonable with a turn to sleet for several hours.  The surface temperatures NW of 95 don't rise above freezing until precip is shutting down.  

Cannot underestimate the power of WAA on the mid-levels , so RB could very well be correct.

I don't like the placement of the High Pressure for this system. While it will certainly give us some cold air to work with initially, as it is off the New England coast it seems perfectly placed to allow this system to run right up to the Great Lakes and to, if anything, enhance the southerly/southeasterly flow out ahead of the system. Unlike the last storm where the High was over Eastern Canada favoring a north/northeasterly flow for a while longer.
My gut tells me the cold air will not hold on as long with this system as it did last week and we will have snow, changing to sleet, but quickly changing to rain thereafter. Modeling seems to give a us a few hours of snow so I wouldn't rule out a 1-3" accumulation out the outset, but I think it goes over to plain rain pretty quickly thereafter.

Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem,
and Easton
316 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of around
one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and east central and
northeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
commute.

Gotta see it to believe it at this point.

I am also under a Winter Storm Watch for possibly 3-5". I don't buy it. And the fact that last week, (which frankly I thought was a better setup for the cold air at least), was projected by NWS as 4-6" here and I got 1.5" I think this is a little suspect.

18z NAM is cold and it projects a good dump of snow and then another long period of sleet. I guess NWS is adopting that view. It just doesn't seem right to me. And historically these systems seem to me to underproduce on initial front-end snow totals, so as i said last Tuesday, "fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice . . ."

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
330 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of the Canadian Maritimes will continue to
move out to sea tonight. High pressure over the Northern Plains
will build to the south and east, will be over the Great Lakes
on Tuesday, and then over the Northeast on Wednesday before
departing. Complex low pressure will organize over the Ohio
Valley on Wednesday, then moves through the region Wednesday
night before departing on Thursday. High pressure returns to
close out the work week. Low pressure impacts the area this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure well to the west will begin to build towards the
area tonight. The clouds that have been across the region much
of the early afternoon, will continue to decrease (mostly) from
S to N. The gusty winds will continue into the evening before
decreasing overnight. It will be a cold night with lows in the
teens across the southern Poconos and 20s elsewhere. Wind chill
readings will be within a few degrees of zero near Mount Pocono
and teens elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
High pressure will continue to expand north of the area, so
fair weather is expected to continue. After a cold night,
temperatures will climb into the low 40s across Delmarva and srn
NJ and into the mid/upper 30s across nrn NJ and the Lehigh
Valley/southern Poconos. The winds will be less gusty that
Monday with speeds mostly 5 to 10 mph expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Winter Storm Watches are now in effect for Wednesday and
Wednesday night for most of the area as complex low pressure
impacts the region with a wide variety of wintry weather.

High pressure will be centered over central New York and down
into eastern PA Tuesday night, and slowly moves to the south and
east during the night, with the center of the high just north
of New York City by Tuesday morning. The high seems to be a bit
slower in its departure, and as a result, overrunning precip out
ahead of intensifying low pressure will be slower to move into
far southern and western portions of the local forecast area.
PoPs Tuesday night, mainly well after midnight and into daybreak
Wednesday, will generally be capped at slight chance/low chance
for Delmarva, the Delaware Valley, and extreme southern NJ.

With the high moving towards Red Sox Suck/Cape Cod on Wednesday, it
appears as if the cold air associated with it will be slower to
depart. Precip moves in from southwest to northeast, and for a
good part of the day Wednesday, will fall as snow, and snow will
accumulate for a good portion of the forecast area for a good
part of the day. Midlevel warm air starts to lift into far
southern portions late in the afternoon, allowing for a wintry
mix over southern Delmarva and southeast New Jersey, but surface
and midlevel temps remain cold enough for all snow across the
southern Poconos, northern NJ, and down into the Delaware
Valley.

The 12Z NAM seems to be an outlier, being colder and having
more in the way of snowfall compared to the GFS and the CMC. NAM
BUFKIT profiles showing 6" of snow for Philly, while GFS BUFKIT
profiles only showing on the order of 2". Trend seems to be for
a bit more in the way of snow due to the position of the high
and the colder air being entrained over the region. Going into
Wednesday night, there will be a change to a wintry mix,
including sleet and freezing rain, with a prolonged period of
freezing rain Wednesday night, possibly into Thursday morning,
for the far northern third of the forecast area, mainly in the
southern Poconos, far northern NJ, and into the Lehigh Valley.
Between 1/10 and 2/10 inch of ice could fall in these areas,
though locally higher amounts are possible.

Will also go ahead and bump up snowfall totals across much of
the region, generally 3-5" in western portions of the Delaware
Valley and northern Delmarva, and 2-4" for much of the southern
Poconos, Lehigh Valley, the rest of the Delaware Valley,
including Philly, and down into portions of southern NJ and the
rest of Delmarva.

Due to the combination of the snow and ice for much of the
area, will go ahead and issue Winter Storm Watches for most of
the region. At this point, the areas expected to get Warning
level snowfall will be limited to far western portions of the
Delaware Valley, the combination of snow and ice justify a Watch
at this point. Some, if not most, of the Watches will likely be
replaced with Winter Weather Advisories the closer we get to
the event, but it remains to be seen based on latest model
trends. Snowfall totals could go higher, resulting in the need
for more in the way of Warnings. Will leave coastal NJ out of
the Watch at this point, as snowfall totals are expected to be
less than 2", and not expecting freezing rain in these areas at
this time. Winds turning onshore should usher warmer and above
freezing temperatures to these coastal areas earlier than inland
locales.

Precip will linger into Thursday morning as low pressure
finally departs. Some lingering freezing rain possible for the
southern Poconos, otherwise, temperatures should be warm enough
for rain throughout.

High pressure begins to build back in from the west on
Thursday. Quite mild, with highs possibly getting into the 40s
and 50s. Remains to be seen if fresh snowpack has an effect on
those highs. Cold front moves through Thursday night, and then
highs return to the 30s and 40s on Friday.

Pattern seems to be fairly similar, with high pressure moving
overhead Friday night/Saturday morning, then departing on Sunday
as another area of low pressure approaches from the south and
west. Current trends have temps warm enough to keep this mostly
as an all rain event, but we will see how this evolves.

&&

rb924119 wrote:To follow up with a discussion that I believe I was having yesterday with @CCB! regarding this upcoming system, I again believe that this will ultimately end up warmer than currently progged based on some quick analysis of the hemispheric and tropical states. Therefore, I believe this will be another event where the change from any snow will likely occur fairly quickly and work to limit accumulations to nuisance values for much of our board’s area. However, unlike this most recent event, the overall QPF (and yes, I’m including the generality of “frozen” precipitation types here) will be substantially higher due to the moisture sourcing from the Gulf of Mexico.

I can't bet against you. As much as I wanted you to be wrong you nailed last nights forecast.

jmanley32 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:In Mystic Connecticut this weekend so can’t report from Orange County. Gonna have to rely on Doc or Damian for the one.

Here in Mystic CT 0.2 inches and I’m being generous.

CP we should meet up im just slightly north of you (like 15 min) staying at mohegan sun casino through wed with the fam.  We are taking my daughter to see this kids Bop concert. I am on the 21st floor and have not been outside but to me looks like a light coating of ice.

Jman, would have loved it but we just back home about an hour ago.

My wife and I were at the Mystic Marriott for a few days and went to Mohegan Sun Saturday night. Saw a comic there named Tom Cotter who if he's still playing there I highly recommend you go see. He did about 50 minutes of stand up and I never stopped laughing the whole time. The guys great, apparently he was runner up on Americas Got Talent a few years ago but I never heard of him until this weekend. Enjoy your time.

NWS Albany is not impressed with next system.


Wednesday into Thursday, the focus will be on a deamplifying
midlevel trough moving from the Upper Midwest into southeast
Canada. Attendant primary surface low will remain well to our
west, with possible secondary low development off the southern
New England coast on Thursday. This is a pattern we have seen
often this winter. Isentropic lift will begin Wednesday
afternoon into the evening as the 850 mb winds increase to 40-50
kt out of the south-southwest. Thermal profiles appear cold
enough to support snow everywhere at the onset. Depending on the
timing, it could be working in during the end of the evening
rush hour, especially south and west of Albany. Warmer air aloft
will change p-type to sleet and freezing rain Wednesday night.
The departing high isn`t in an ideal position to keep cold air
locked in place, but it looks like at least light icing is
possible before temperatures rise late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Midlevel dry slot will be rapidly approaching
as well for late Wednesday night or Thursday morning, so we
could see steadier precip turn to drizzle and freezing drizzle.
Overall it does not look like a major event from a QPF
standpoint, and the timing does not look favorable for big
impacts, but it could be just messy enough for winter weather
headlines to be necessary with around 1-3 inches of snow/sleet
combined with up to a tenth of an inch of ice.

Hyde I am thinking more of the 1 then the 3 and some sleet. Can't wait!!!

jimv45 wrote:Hyde I am thinking more of the 1 then the 3 and some sleet. Can't wait!!!

I'll take what we can get but doesn't look promising. How much did you get from last night? I wound up with 3.

hyde345 wrote:NWS Albany is not impressed with next system.


Wednesday into Thursday, the focus will be on a deamplifying
midlevel trough moving from the Upper Midwest into southeast
Canada. Attendant primary surface low will remain well to our
west, with possible secondary low development off the southern
New England coast on Thursday. This is a pattern we have seen
often this winter. Isentropic lift will begin Wednesday
afternoon into the evening as the 850 mb winds increase to 40-50
kt out of the south-southwest. Thermal profiles appear cold
enough to support snow everywhere at the onset. Depending on the
timing, it could be working in during the end of the evening
rush hour, especially south and west of Albany. Warmer air aloft
will change p-type to sleet and freezing rain Wednesday night.
The departing high isn`t in an ideal position to keep cold air
locked in place, but it looks like at least light icing is
possible before temperatures rise late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Midlevel dry slot will be rapidly approaching
as well for late Wednesday night or Thursday morning, so we
could see steadier precip turn to drizzle and freezing drizzle.
Overall it does not look like a major event from a QPF
standpoint, and the timing does not look favorable for big
impacts, but it could be just messy enough for winter weather
headlines to be necessary with around 1-3 inches of snow/sleet
combined with up to a tenth of an inch of ice.

Upton is in the same boat:

The synoptic pattern for the first storm system is not favorable for
a significant winter storm across the region. The antecedent air
mass is the main ingredient to bring about a concern of front end
wintry precipitation before a wintry mix and then eventually rain.

High pressure gradually shifts from overhead Wednesday morning to
just along the New England coast Wednesday evening. The air will
initially be dry with dew points in the teens. Some concern that the
models are saturating this air mass too quickly due to the proximity
of the high pressure. Another factor of concern is deep layered
ridging aloft. The main shortwave trough and parent low is progged
to be located over the Northern Plains at 00z Thursday. The main
source of lift will be from warm advection/frontogenesis and the
potential of secondary low pressure to develop somewhere along the
Middle Atlantic Wednesday evening. The 12z NAM appears to be too
aggressive in developing precip early Wednesday afternoon and has
therefore been discounted. Have followed a GFS/ECMWF blend for
timing. Another factor to weigh in here is overall model performance
this winter has been subpar regarding similar PTYPE events, with too
much wintry precip forecast versus actual observations (the most
recent occurring last night into this morning).

This new forecast package shows the potential for snow to develop
for the Wednesday evening commute across the southern half of the
area. Its north and eastward progression will be determined by how
quickly it can overcome lingering dry air and surface and upper
ridging. The snow should overspread the rest of the region after 00z
Thursday. However, due to the unfavorable position of the high and
factors noted above, the snow should quickly transition to a wintry
mix and plain rain at the coast before midnight. This progression
will continue northward through early Thursday morning as warmer
air moves in both at the surface and aloft. Some lingering freezing
rain is possible across the NW interior if surface temperatures take
a bit longer to rise above freezing.

Have followed a conservative approach to snow/sleet amounts with
generally 1-2 inches across the region, with lower amounts across
eastern Long Island and SE CT. A reasonable worst case scenario with
a snowier outcome is for 1-3 inches east and 3-4 inches from NYC on
west. Of note is the 12z ECMWF EPS mean probability for greater than
3 inches is generally less than 30 percent. A tenth of an inch or
less of freezing rain is forecast across the interior. Overall
liquid equivalent amounts are around a half inch.