Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm

Yeah I’m having a hard time seeing Ocean County do over 4” due to a lot of rain and the possibility of a sleet fest in the areas that do change over. Maybe far NW Ocean County could crack into the higher numbers.

Fededle22 wrote:My wife is supposed to go to Hoboken for a cooking class from 7-9pm with friends and she doesn't want to go due to the storm. The owner does not give refunds and says they are supposed to get 1-2 inches of rain so why would he cancel. What forecast is he listening to?

Sounds like some bad reviews are in order shortly

[/quote] At the same time, I think Mt Holly is on crack in the other direction.

In what is the most out of character move I have seen anywhere in a while, NWS has put Ocean County to a warning and upped their call to 4-7" for 'portions of southern NJ"?!?!

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...HEAVY WET SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES EXPECTED. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND NORTHERN DELAWARE. * WHEN...RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN ALL SNOW OCCURS INTO THIS EVENING.



Whatever, I'll be here a-tracking either way, but I think the coast is toast, not the host to boast the most roast...[/quote]





Sounds like they are concerned with Western Southern and central Jersey by including SE PA, more inland away from the coast. Sounds like there can be a sharp cutoff from the shore and inland, maybe between the turnpike and parkway...

Satellite blossoming nicely. Lots of moisture incoming:

I expect areas just north/west of the r/s line to have intense snowfall this evening and I wonder: could there even be thundersnow?

Zoo your explanation makes the most sense to me as to the term 'Southern New Jersey', but still confused as to the decision to up Ocean County to a warning? Because the county line contours sharply towards the coast, there is no SW to the county. It must be the far NW corner (out by Six Flags) of the County has a shot for warning level snowfall.

In the mean time, this could be a relatively humbling evening for yours truly lol:

had a little drizzle/flurry. 38/26, so i expect some evaporational cooling at the surface. 850's -7 and 925's -3.

SENJsnowman wrote:Zoo your explanation makes the most sense to me as to the term 'Southern New Jersey', but still confused as to the decision to up Ocean County to a warning? Because the county line contours sharply towards the coast, there is no SW to the county. It must be the far NW corner (out by Six Flags) of the County has a shot for warning level snowfall.

In the mean time, this could be a relatively humbling evening for yours truly lol:

That's why I figured between the Parkway and the Turnpike, but still holding out hope for something for y'all!

First flakes have begun falling here in Hopatcong NJ at about 3:35 pm.

light snow 35/30. The bottom part of the air column cools quickly once you start getting consistent precip. Unfortunately it will take time to get surface below freezing. I think that'll be across the board here, but not having to battle the sun will help a lot i think.

41 degrees here in southern ocean county no precipitation yet. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say rain, rain rain All night. Hopefully the majority of this board gets a good shot of snow. Go get em!!!!!

Very light fine snow. Dropped from 41 to 37.

light rain, 38 and heading down in New Hope, PA

Very light, fine snow here. Shocking, actually.

Nam has upped the ante with QPF though a tick warmer. A general 6-10 inches for NYC metro.

It seems the snow has broken out over NYC and is spreading south to the Jersey Shore?
OK...

we dropped 4* in the last hour and it is SNOWING!

first snow in Butler on the Kinnelon/West Milford line!

Some drizzle now. 41*

you would think the mesos would have very justified track at this point among each other. Nope. 18Z RGEM and NAM are quite different. NAM much more tucked inside BM even more than Euro while RGEM is much closer to BM. Consequently RGEM is much colder solution.

40* with a cold light rain here. Dew point is 28*. Feels like snow is not far off and radar confirms that. I expect a changeover to light snow in the next hour or two. So far radar is developing consistent with what the short-range models showed earlier so they are on target thus far.

Temperature has dropped to 33.5 which is encouraging.

Something made TWC a bit more bullish for the coast, we're now 1-3 with accumulating snow for 4-5 hours tonight on a front end thump. Now if that back end thump from the GFS come thru...

This storm seems a bit more amped than was progged, no? Does that back a colder, or warmer, solution? Or not necessarily either?

39 light rain

Current Radar...........Area With blue shade are areas the could see 8" or more.

Feed is current fro NWS.

heehaw453 wrote:you would think the mesos would have very justified track at this point among each other.  Nope.  18Z RGEM and NAM are quite different.  NAM much more tucked inside BM even more than Euro while RGEM is much closer to BM.  Consequently RGEM is much colder solution.

Which model is closer to what is happening with the storm at this point? I would assume we follow that model if it has predicted what is happening now with development, movement and precip.

Raining by me.