Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm

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Post by billg315 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:05 am

jmanley32 wrote:Isn't the fact that there's 4 to 5 inches in the area going to help accumulate almost immediately?
it certainly could keep temps at the low levels a little cooler than forecast although I think most pavement will be clear by tomorrow night. What will definitely help is this thing starting at night instead of morning or midday.
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Post by billg315 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:06 am

jmanley32 wrote:Thanks for the writeup frank. Will sign for 4 to 8 or 6 to10 def as you have me split literally lol. What do you guys think for schools Monday?

I’m expecting widespread school closures Monday - many announced Sunday night.
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:09 am

Frank thanks for your latest thoughts on the storm. I pretty much agree with your snow map with the only exception of expanding the 6-10 zone SE by about 20 miles.
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Post by RJB8525 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:13 am

Mt Holly with a slight uptick from early this morning

Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 4 Mtholl10
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Post by Irish on Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:14 am

Jmanley, we get somewhere between 4-10 in a lot of areas sunday into Monday, there's no way we're having school, IMO.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:21 am

12z rgem

Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 4 3C9738CF-04DB-4B7B-9E6E-CD2A591FBA92.thumb.gif.fd91e0819b241c77b86e6c5151417ed4

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Post by mwilli on Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:23 am

4-8 swatch for nassau county..i'll take it.....

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Post by Irish on Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:43 am

So, on the map Frank posted above, the 8.8 inches is posted right over my neck of the woods in central Jersey, Middlesex county. With that being the case, why do you think there hasn't been even a watch posted for my area yet and less than 1 inch is projected by other outlets?

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Post by amugs on Sat Mar 02, 2019 11:15 am

JMAN - This type of storm will as Billing said close schools.
This has a 6-10" written all ovr it for I 95 corridor.
RGEM is a blend o the GFS and NAM - interesting.

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Post by heehaw453 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 11:23 am

Nice write up Frank. For WAA I’d like to see a better airmass for overrunning. But there should be enough precipitation to overcome that somewhat. I still think the strength of this storm maybe a bit greater because a partial injection of northern stream that I think may occur.

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Sat Mar 02, 2019 11:41 am

Canadian looks great. A general 6-10 across the area.
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:08 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:At this time I am thinking the storm Sunday night will be a widespread Mothrazilla event (6"+ snowfall). That is not to say some parts of the area will not see Godzilla amounts (12"+ snowfall), but to declare a Godzilla would mean a large swath of the area getting over a foot and right now I do not see it. But heck, 6"+ is nothing to sneeze at and it will be the largest event of the season for most.

Unfortunately, I do think those south of CNJ and parts of the Jersey Shore will flip to rain at some point. I'm having a tough time figuring out how FAR south though. Maybe just the Cape May area, or as far north as Point Pleasant? My preliminary snow map (Figure 3.0) shown below tries to take that into consideration. What you will also see in the images below are the temperatures. The 850mb/925mb are expected to be cold for this system. However, the surface temps look like they will be above freezing for some. You can see how the surface temps are in the upper 30's to low 40's for parts of the area which is why I'm hesitant of higher snow amounts there.

By looking at the 500mb set-up it's easy to see where the dynamics will come from. The coastal low associated with the southern stream is riding the SE Ridge (Figure 4.0), while the PV lobe sits just north of the Great Lakes pressing the trough S&E. The trough and confluent energy at 500mb is preventing this coastal storm from cutting to our west. However, there will not be a phase with northern stream energy. Its purely southern stream driven. This is the main reason why an organized coastal storm with a well defined center will not form. Nevertheless, it will be a fun event because of the dynamics.

Because of this 500mb set-up, upward motion (measured at 700mb) should be impressive. The VV (vertical velocity) maps prove it indeed is depending on the model you look at. The GFS (Figure 5.0) has +2 to +10 VV's throughout the area. Snowfall rates will not be too crazy but moderate enough. Meanwhile, the NAM (Figures 6.0 & 7.0), shows very impressive VV's that could result in 1"+/hour snowfall rates. But notice how the VV's are more concentrated here than they are widespread like the GFS. The greatest VV's tend to be closer to the baroclinic zone.

700mb frontogenesis is where you'll find a deformation band try to set-up. Your best lift and snow growth, often where best snowfall rates occur also, is found here. The NAM (Figure 8.0) does show some moderate frontogenesis for NYC and N&W. There could be a period of very heavy snow that falls overnight Sunday or early Monday morning, easily dropping a few inches in just a couple of hours.

Figure 3.0

Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 4 March-3-snow-map

Figure 4.0

Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 4 Gfs_z500a_us_7

Figure 5.0

Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 4 VV-1

Figure 6.0 & 7.0

Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 4 VV-2-NAM

Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 4 VV-3-NAM

Figure 8.0

Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 4 Frontogenesis-NAM


thank you Frank where do I sign!!!
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Post by WeatherBob on Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:41 pm

, I can see this a vigorous system as it intensifies at the surface to mid levels when it approaches us. The only thing that might bring down the totals is that the system will be moving like an AOC high speed train. I think max totals will be limited to 6 in since the precip will be in and out in 6 to 7 hrs.
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Post by Sanchize06 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:50 pm

Looks like great 12z runs. Gfs,Cmc,Rgem,Nam all on board with Frank's map, and actually has a good 6-10" for areas south as well around I-95

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Post by Sanchize06 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:56 pm

Would assume Mt Holly will include Middlesex and Monmouth counties at least in the Winter Storm Warnings later

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Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:59 pm

This will be a great storm. Timing for March is perfect too. Heaviest falls at night

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Post by heehaw453 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:33 pm

The 12Z Euro is pretty set on just inside BM track. It’s getting very late in the game for it to be egregiously off. I could see 50 miles but shocked if more than that.

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Post by Irish on Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:45 pm

Is there a place here where all the abbreviations are defined? Like BM, cause i know it's not bowel movement.

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Post by heehaw453 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:47 pm

12Z Euro brings 10”+ just NW of 95.

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Post by heehaw453 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:49 pm

Irish wrote:Is there a place here where all the abbreviations are defined?  Like BM, cause i know it's not bowel movement.

It means 40/70 latitude/longitude. Not far from Montauk Point Long Island.

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Post by hyde345 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:50 pm

Irish wrote:Is there a place here where all the abbreviations are defined?  Like BM, cause i know it's not bowel movement.

BM means benchmark which is 40N/70W. Lows that track to benchmark generally give NYC metro good snows.
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Post by Irish on Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:51 pm

Thx guys

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:53 pm

Irish wrote:Is there a place here where all the abbreviations are defined?  Like BM, cause i know it's not bowel movement.

Unless the person posting happened to be in the john at the time. We have to consider all possibilities.
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Post by Joe Snow on Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:09 pm

Irish wrote:Is there a place here where all the abbreviations are defined?  Like BM, cause i know it's not bowel movement.

BM= Bench Mark
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Post by heehaw453 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:18 pm

I'm not really sure why NYC and Middlesex County NJ are not in WSW's based on all the guidance. Mount Holly left Middlesex out of WWA's last night and they had over 4" in part of the area. My guess is their afternoon update will fix that.

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