December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations

algae888 wrote:The hi res rgem brings The Heavy band right over the city 6 + 4 many on that run should be fun to track tomorrow

sweet lord that was a awesome run we get 8 to 12 am. Let's hope that plays out. That was some serious banding for many hours.

About a half hour ago, I went out and measured the snow here in Albany and got to the 12" mark, officially making this a "Godzilla" snowstorm here. The last Godzilla I experienced firsthand was the 1/23/16 snowstorm (aka "Jonas") back when I still lived in Bellerose, and that was a Roidzilla with 25" IMBY.

At the moment, the snow here is tapering off to light snow and it will be interesting as to how the inverted trough develops as the transfer takes place. It does look like it will fill back in here by Monday evening, which will help to increase the snow totals.

Now, for you folks down in the tri-state area, the temperatures at dusk look to be in the mid-30s. It should be noted that if you are going to get some accumulations, you need the snow to come down at high rates. Model guidance does have NYC getting some minor accumulations but the aforementioned factor needs to be taken into consideration.

Wow, almost all overnight guidance has shifted the banding over Eastern Nj, Nyc, NeNj. Euro came east, NAM, HRRR, Ukmet

Moderate snow.  32 degrees.  850's have already crashed in western NJ and I suspect this solution will be colder for the coast! The surface low looks pretty far east, but we need the ULL to clear the coast for better clarity. That's when things get interesting.

Good luck all!  Let's GO!!!

850 temps


Surface low


Upper level low

The rgem is 6 to 12 inches of snow for the city north in to Westchester in to parts of Northeast New Jersey and parts of nassau. Then an area of a foot or more for eastern central New Jersey in between a few inches. literally cuts the city in half

algae888 wrote:The rgem is 6 to 12 inches of snow for the city north in to Westchester in to parts of Northeast New Jersey and parts of nassau. Then an area of a foot or more for eastern central New Jersey in between a few inches. literally cuts the city in half

you think we see that much al? Wwa says 2 to 4 if so it's go catch everyone off guard and the afternoon commute will be a nightmare.

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:The rgem is 6 to 12 inches of snow for the city north in to Westchester in to parts of Northeast New Jersey and parts of nassau. Then an area of a foot or more for eastern central New Jersey in between a few inches. literally cuts the city in half

you think we see that much al? Wwa says 2 to 4 if so it's go catch everyone off guard and the afternoon commute will be a nightmare.

Remember where Frank had that yellow circle honest map it all depends on where that heavy banding sets up and had has moved East according to the models also take note that coastal areas temperatures are below forecasted at this time

Yonkers schools are closed but not white plains which is further north. That makes no sense. Right now I have delayed opening at 10am.

skinsfan1177 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:The rgem is 6 to 12 inches of snow for the city north in to Westchester in to parts of Northeast New Jersey and parts of nassau. Then an area of a foot or more for eastern central New Jersey in between a few inches. literally cuts the city in half

you think we see that much al? Wwa says 2 to 4 if so it's go catch everyone off guard and the afternoon commute will be a nightmare.

Remember where Frank had that yellow circle honest map it all depends on where that heavy banding sets up and had has moved East according to the models also take note that coastal areas temperatures are below forecasted at this time

what were the temps supposed b it's bout 37 here with rain.

HRRR really hammering Central and North Jersey. 6-12" in those places and still snowing at the end of the run

My area in central/ eastern Jersey now has a wsw and 4-8 inches on tap. My school district just called an early dismissal.

Still snowing at this point too

Hi res rgem crushes nyc and Westchester NY and eastern Jersey intense bands.

jmanley32 wrote:Hi res rgem crushes nyc and Westchester NY and eastern Jersey intense bands.

Wow, what a run from the hi res rgem

i still think models do not know where band sets up rgem crushes western li into westchester while hrrr has a few inches for this area and nam has similar to hrrr. hope the rgem wins out!

All right I've seen enough. The overnight/early morning model runs have clearly shifted east and what do I see when I turn on the TV? I'm watching smiling Amy Freeze telling the public to expect a general 1-3 inches in the city. Heck where I reside in Nutley, I'm currently under a WWA for 2-4". What is the NWS doing? Do the prudent thing and declare a WSW for the remainder of North Jersey and NYC. If it busts so be it. At least you give the public and work places a heads up on the situation that is potentially unfolding. The last thing we need is another November 2018 commuters nightmare. Ok I'm finished with my rant. Everyone stay safe.

just got home from work near peekskill in westchester. 32 degrees there with a little slush ice from yesterday. Just starting to flurry. Roads got worse as i reached putnam and snow picked up. Here in southern Dutchess we have a light snow with an inch of hard packed snow sleet and ice. Currently upper 20s.

My town police department just tweeted that they are expecting about 8” here in town.

Right now there is just a glaze left over from last night.  

Most schools in the surrounding area are closed after initially calling for an early dismissal.

nutleyblizzard wrote:All right I've seen enough. The overnight/early morning model runs have clearly shifted east and what do I see when I turn on the TV? I'm watching smiling Amy Freeze telling the public to expect a general 1-3 inches in the city. Heck where I reside in Nutley, I'm currently under a WWA for 2-4". What is the NWS doing? Do the prudent thing and declare a WSW for the remainder of North Jersey and NYC. If it busts so be it. At least you give the public and work places a heads up on the situation that is potentially unfolding. The last thing we need is another November 2018 commuters nightmare. Ok I'm finished with my rant. Everyone stay safe.

I hear ya at least news 12 says 3-6, they upped from 1-3 from last night, may still not be high enough if rgem is right but i swear if I go in and get stuck in a blitz trying to get home im gonna be pissed! My daugter is off, yonkers aint having a repeat of last year!

nutleyblizzard wrote:All right I've seen enough. The overnight/early morning model runs have clearly shifted east and what do I see when I turn on the TV? I'm watching smiling Amy Freeze telling the public to expect a general 1-3 inches in the city. Heck where I reside in Nutley, I'm currently under a WWA for 2-4". What is the NWS doing? Do the prudent thing and declare a WSW for the remainder of North Jersey and NYC. If it busts so be it. At least you give the public and work places a heads up on the situation that is potentially unfolding. The last thing we need is another November 2018 commuters nightmare. Ok I'm finished with my rant. Everyone stay safe.

Agreed, warnings should be expanded east. Plenty of support for 6"+

Radar still very disorganized, but has the look of a coastal low nearby.Hopefully it fills in.NWS saying snow starts here late morning.Maybe an inch of slop.Freezing drizzle right now.Nowcast time to see who gets the goods.Hoping for 6 our of this event.Roads clear , they were salting.

HRRR looks good, slams those of us here in Monmouth county. Would think NWS has to give in at some point and extend that warning over here

I woke up this morning as a big time beneficiary of the eastern shift. We're in a 2-4" zone now. As of yesterday, the Jersey Shore was thinking maybe a slushy inch. We were supposed to hover in the low 40's all day and finally change to snow around 10 pm. And I was happy with that, all things considered. Now, the temp is at 39* and forecast to hold steady until about 11 am when it crashes to 35*...and the snow (after a little mid-afternoon mixing) begins!

Hot Dog! But I hope we didn't snatch anyone's riches away...I'm thinking this set up just creates more white gold for the board at large?

Great tracking again everyone! Let's hope this coastal really comes together...that might be all it takes this point for a board wide bonanza!

The rain/snow line is making good progress eastward. I just got to work up in Fairlawn and the rain just turned over to sleet.

Going to be a fun commute on the LIRR later. Better get at least 4” to make it worth it lol