Monitoring February 4th

Continuing to show a nice jackpot for the Aresian and the N and W frontiers.
I'm not sure why, but my weather forecasting instincts are telling me to expect more fairly strong suppression to the south.

HOLY SHITSKIES PEEPS!!!
Caving mightily to the GFS - this storm will dictate Sunday/Monday storm - weaker it will eave behind energy that will follow up suite behind it



Great Map for Ice accretion- ZR






Look at that press - you do NOT underestimate the cold in the heart of winter with a deep snowpack in NE and Canada and a 1040 plus HP over Quebec with a 1040 to its WSW with -20's in Canada.
NWS is out to lunch in Upton...literally!

amugs wrote:Food for thought from Earthlight at 33 n Rain:
Completely agree and if one is going to use precip maps in a mixed event like this could be, IMO, one has to use three maps to get a sense of what's actually going to happen:

For pure snowfall, use the Pivotal snowfall map

For pure freezing rain accretion, use the Pivotal freezing rain map (understanding that that is converting all rain falling at <32F as accreting freezing rain, which is a worst case)

For sleet, take the Tidbits "snowfall" map (which includes sleet as 10:1 snow), and kind of manually subtract out the pure snowfall from Pivotal and then divide that resulting "snowfall" (sleet) by 3 to get the sleet accumulation (given the roughly 3:1 frozen/liquid ratio for sleet vs. 10:1 for snow).  Actual sleet maps would be nice, since clearly that TT "snowfall" map is mostly sleet at a much lower ratio.  

It was in the last four years mugs although I can’t remember exactly which storm. We received 4 1/2 inches of sleet in Orange County And it was like shoveling a stack of 100 pound dumbbells. It fell on top of an already existing snow pack and that layer of sleet lasted for several weeks. That stuff has a real resilience to sun and rain. For someone like myself that loves the snow cover through most of the winter it’s the best once you get it off your driveway.

I'm hoping so, Snowman, but I'd like to see the Euro speed up maybe 6-8 hours as far as bringing the cold down.

As far as websites go, I have no idea what they're looking at. Accuweather has me getting .5-1" of ice when even the NAM has taken me out of the frozen zone at this stage. TWC has 10 hours of 36* and snow. Joe Bastardi uses the Crapola model for his twitter and that says 14-16". It makes me so thankful for this forum and the people on it that make the weather make sense. Even on the missed forecasts there's a postmortem that breaks down what happened.

As of now, I still like my initial ideas on this system, and expect us to see this continue trending south. GFS should lead the way here, with respect to both the southward trend and the narrowing field of icing. However, I’d like to clarify this a bit. I don’t that the actual wave of low pressure will change much in it’s depicted latitude. BUT, I think that we see the flow become more compressed over the Northeast as the northern stream runs out ahead while the southern stream lags behind, has more energy elongate over the Southwest, and end up as a weaker, more positively tilted trough. On top of that, this is a very steep, Arctic front *advancing thanks to the front running northern stream. It’s not cold air retreating in advance of precipitation/warm advection. Very big difference, and is why I see both a narrow band of icing, and more of a rain/freezing rain or snow situation, versus a smorgasbord of all three (though obviously there will be some sleet, just not a broad area).

Those who do see the ice, which I still like my zone from yesterday, will see a fair bit of it, but I think NW NJ, NEPA, and the Hudson Valley will be pleasantly “surprised” by the snowfall totals here, as Warning criteria should be met VERY easily.

rb924119 wrote:As of now, I still like my initial ideas on this system, and expect us to see this continue trending south. GFS should lead the way here, with respect to both the southward trend and the narrowing field of icing. However, I’d like to clarify this a bit. I don’t that the actual wave of low pressure will change much in it’s depicted latitude. BUT, I think that we see the flow become more compressed over the Northeast as the northern stream runs out ahead while the southern stream lags behind, has more energy elongate over the Southwest, and end up as a weaker, more positively tilted trough. On top of that, this is a very steep, Arctic front *advancing thanks to the front running northern stream. It’s not cold air retreating in advance of precipitation/warm advection. Very big difference, and is why I see both a narrow band of icing, and more of a rain/freezing rain or snow situation, versus a smorgasbord of all three (though obviously there will be some sleet, just not a broad area).

Those who do see the ice, which I still like my zone from yesterday, will see a fair bit of it, but I think NW NJ, NEPA, and the Hudson Valley will be pleasantly “surprised” by the snowfall totals here, as Warning criteria should be met VERY easily.

Looks like by GFS and Euro I should prepare for quite a frz event, one that maybe we have not seen in my memory anyways. Euro map mugs posted shows 0.34 for yonkers on euro and GFS is a inch so would you say it is reasonable to prepare for somewhere between there? I hope the NAM can clear this up as hi res sometimes does better with the frz. I do wish I was going to see the snow but either way safety wise I am home friday. This comes in the morning and is out by evening?

18z NAM much warmer. Rain into interior SNE. Direct result of weaker HP to the north and stronger first wave of energy

18Z NAM still amped up on the low.  I would give it until 00Z tonight or better yet 12Z tomorrow to get on board with more strung out low. Rb I'm going to be surprised if anyone south of I84 (< 1000' ASL) see > 6" snow unless there is another wave that can form on tail end on this to keep the precip going after the mid-levels crash. Awesome call if it verifies.

This isn’t a snowstorm for most of us, but it may prove to be more impactful than if it was…

I am expecting a good amount of snow with some Sleet in my area! Just hope for no freezing rain.

jimv45 wrote:I am expecting a good amount of snow with some Sleet in my area! Just hope for no freezing rain.

I edited my post to most of us ;-)

aiannone wrote:18z NAM much warmer. Rain into interior SNE. Direct result of weaker HP to the north and stronger first wave of energy

Nam has been abysmal beyond 48 hours. Will start taking it seriously tomorrow at 12z.

New GFS looks reasonable to me and it's finally showing Boston not getting 17" of snow.  I think the sig ice threat is I80 on northward with this one.

GFS has been consistent in that it batters a lot of you with ice. Hopefully, Ray is right when he says people will be pleasantly surprised with snowfall totals.

heehaw453 wrote:New GFS looks reasonable to me and it's finally showing Boston not getting 17" of snow.  I think the sig ice threat is I80 on northward with this one.

That moved the most Sig ice to north of me do u think that's case? I was in bullseye b4. I am go need my power Friday or I am go b in deep dodo. Should I be okay or should I take a trip somewhere it's less bad like in CT?

TheAresian wrote:GFS has been consistent in that it batters a lot of you with ice. Hopefully, Ray is right when he says people will be pleasantly surprised with snowfall totals.

He meant up your way not for us joining the icecapades

NWS Binghamton is calling for 8-12. I'm all for a pleasant surprise above that.

CAUTION: Model dance happening so do not buy into the "NORTH" shift etc until 12Z tomorrow.
Please keep this to model analysis, and maps.
I trust in Rb and believe it will be more snow in NNJ but after a good dose of ice. We've seen NW ticks then to have a SE ticks before the storm this year.

18Z EURO ticks colder by a smidge S - the Dance has commenced.
That is a boat load of ice for NNJ and LHV.

PA/NJ/NY/CT
I think there's two area's of support. Major event for NNJ/CT/southern MA/ Lower Hudson Valley into central PA. Zone 2 is Central MD where cold air can easily funnel south in the beltways pic.twitter.com/t86P7VPAT4

— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) February 2, 2022

That is a beast of HP peeps. Slides east and Whoooaaaa Nellie

amugs wrote:

PA/NJ/NY/CT
I think there's two area's of support. Major event for NNJ/CT/southern MA/ Lower Hudson Valley into central PA. Zone 2 is Central MD where cold air can easily funnel south in the beltways pic.twitter.com/t86P7VPAT4

— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) February 2, 2022

what run is that showing of what model? If there is a inch of ice here in yonkers it will be a disaster moreso than other places I will explain why, we are the san francisco of the east coast we have many hills that in snow you cannot get up some near 70% incline. They should shut the city down if this were to transpire.  Which is looking more and more likely, and clearly going to eastern CT won't help me any better as its showing at least a half inch there too. I pray I keep my power Friday, I have a virtual training required for work that will not be repeated on a new therapy model for treatment for substance abusing teens/young adults with mental health diagnosis.

For those that do not know which I did not lower hudson valley is considered rockland and westchester counties so we are in the crosshairs of this nastiness.

Frank has been very quiet on this one hmm.

Yikes now the 0z Nam is spitting out GFS like ice totals

We have a long way to go with this even though it is only 2-3 days away. Mixed precip is so hard to get a handle on. No sense model-hugging until Wednesday night. And even then, where those lines set up, who knows!

Not hugging any models but there is no denying that we have a set up that is bringing ice to our board area that is not good. The HP placement and strength will be whether we have a crippling ice event or a minor one but I see every model showing now withing 48 hrs an icing event for NNJ, LHV, and CT, EPA.
NAM is on board. No two ways about it.
It's the heart of winter with a deep snowpack overhead and a moderate/ strong HP to very strong HP.
This set up is who gets how much IMO and looking at analogs.
I pray Rb is right and we see a SE shift to snow and we'll need a large 100-150 mile one at that.

Better ice accretion map from 33.rain site