Re: Weather Statistics Thread

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

With Officially 4.0 inches of snow in Central Park today NYC is now at 15.5 inches for the season which ties this season for 116th place out of the last 150 years of record keeping, tied with the winter of 1970/71.  

That winter was much colder than this winter, although not exceptionally so. What did fall stuck around a lot longer, January at 26.9° was the cold month that winter and with 11.4 inches of snow by far the snowiest. December at 34.4° and February at 35.1° were both near average for that period. March averaged 40.1° which is historically average, but a few degrees below what our new averages (1981-2010) are for March.

NYC now needs only 22.7 inches of snow in the next 22 months for the new 30 year average, which will be calculated in January 2021, to reach 30 inches per year. The current average snowfall for the period January 1991-March 2019 is now 30.5 inches. The 150 year average in NYC is 28.8 inches.

March now has 5.4 inches of snow for the first two days of the month, and only needs 1.1 inches by the end of the month to become the snowiest month of the winter season for the fourth time in the last five years.

This winter season now becomes only the second season in history that November and March will be the two snowiest months. The only other time this happened was the Winter of 1989-90.

[Math23x7]

Recall my Excel chart of NYC seasonal snow statistics labeling snow seasons in terms of "record lowest", "much below normal", "below normal", "near normal", "above normal", "much above normal", and "record highest".

On Saturday March 2nd, 1996, CPK got about four inches of snow, putting the 1995-96 season from "much above normal" to "record highest"

On Saturday March 2nd, 2019, CPK got about four inches of snow, putting the 2018-19 season from "much below normal" to "below normal"

[SENJsnowman]

CP, Math: Great stats and analysis and recollections etc...thanks!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

A couple of things to watch for stat wise in NYC concerning tonight's impending storm.

March now has 5.4 inches of snow for the month, and only needs 1.1 inches today and tonight to become the snowiest month of the winter season for the 4th time in the last 5 years.

This winter season now becomes only the second season in history that November and March will be the two snowiest months. The only other time this happened was the Winter of 1989-90.

If NYC receives 6 inches or more from today's storm it will be the first time in history that they received 6 inches or more from two separate storms (6.4 inches from the Nov 15th storm) in the same season in the months of November and March.

Let's make history tonight.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

With Officially 5.0 inches of snow in Central Park from last nights storm, NYC is now at 20.5 inches for the season which places this season 101st of the last 150 years.

NYC now needs only 17.7 inches of snow in the next 22 months for the new 30 year average, to reach 30 inches per year. If no snow fell until then it would be 29.4. The current average since January 1991 is 30.6 inches. The 150 year average is now 28.9 inches.

March now has 10.4 inches for the month and is now the snowiest month of the winter season for the fourth time in the last five years. Three of the last five March's have seen double digit snow amounts and 2017 at 9.7 inches just missed.

[Math23x7]

If no snow fell in NYC between now and the end of 2020 (God forbid!) here are what the 1991-2020 monthly snowfall averages would be compared to the 1981-2010 monthly snowfall averages:

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

NYC needs 17.7 inches of snow between now and December 31, 2020 for the new 30 year average, to reach 30 inches per year, when the new 30 year averages are calculated 13 months from now.

The current seasonal snowfall average in NYC since January 1991 is 30.6 inches. The 150 year average is 28.9 inches.

It will be interesting to see if the upcoming event can produce in NYC. Decembers have not been overly generous along the coast the last several years.

December snowfall totals Central Park (NYC) the last ten years.
2009... 12.4
2010... 20.1
2011... 0.0
2012... 0.4
2013... 8.6
2014... 1.0
2015... Trace
2016... 3.2
2017... 7.7
2018... 0.0

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

With the 0.7 inches of snow in Central Park yesterday, NYC only needs 15.2 inches of snow between now and Dec 31 2020 for the new 30 year averages calculated in January 2021 to be 30 inches per season.

One MECS away, or several nickel and dime events, like for example this December in the city.

[HectorO]

I remember 2010 like it was yesterday.

[Math23x7]

If no snow fell in NYC between now and the end of 2020 (God forbid!) here are what the 1991-2020 monthly snowfall averages would be compared to the 1981-2010 monthly snowfall averages:

This image I posted was from last March. Since CPK has recorded 2.5" this December, the 1991-2020 average snow for December is now up to 4.8", even with the 1981-2010 December snow average.

[Frank_Wx]

I thought this map was cool to share. It shows snow accumulation in FEET for the past decade. What was the last decade NYC saw 30 feet of snow?

[Frank_Wx]

Or that Long Island and western NJ saw the same accumulation over a decade seems bizarre

[Frank_Wx]

Maine is the place to be for snow lover extremists. Southeast for those who feel the opposite

[Math23x7]

I thought this map was cool to share. It shows snow accumulation in FEET for the past decade. What was the last decade NYC saw 30 feet of snow?

Yup.  This was NYC's snowiest decade on record.  Here are the rankings:

2010s: 369.0
1890s: 352.3
1870s: 335.1
1940s: 326.7
1880s: 324.8
1960s: 310.5
1910s: 305.2
1900s: 298.1
1920s: 292.0
2000s: 292.0
1930s: 241.3
1990s: 238.3
1970s: 222.0
1950s: 215.3
1980s: 199.4


Also, here is the breakdown by year for the 2010's:

2010: 59.1
2011: 44.7
2012: 9.6
2013: 29.6
2014: 50.0
2015: 49.1
2016: 36.0
2017: 34.7
2018: 39.6
2019: 16.6

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I thought this map was cool to share. It shows snow accumulation in FEET for the past decade. What was the last decade NYC saw 30 feet of snow?

Great map Frank.

A great eye opener for those that lament at times that they wish they lived in the Midwest. As the map clearly shows most of the Midwest, (Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, Kansas and the southern half of Nebraska and Iowa) are not the places to be for snow lovers. I lived in southern Wisconsin for several years and it was cold but I get on average 10-20 more inches of snow per season in the HV than I did there.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

It's par for the course but yesterdays totals of 0.9 inches at Newark, 0.7 inches at LGA and smack in the middle 0.2 inches at Central Park leads me to believe the Conservancy dropped the ball at the Park. It certainly wouldn't be the first time, and won't be the last. The Conservancy has been better than the zookeeper but far from perfect, especially on the minor events.

15.0 inches to go by December 31, 2020 to get the 30 year average in NYC to 30 inches. What looked like a lock two years ago is starting to look iffy.

If no more snow falls between now and December 31, 2020, which is very unlikely despite the lousy pattern we're currently in, the new 30 year average from Jan 1 1991 to December 2020 would be 29.5 inches.

[heehaw453]

It's par for the course but yesterdays totals of 0.9 inches at Newark, 0.7 inches at LGA and smack in the middle 0.2 inches at Central Park leads me to believe the Conservancy dropped the ball at the Park. It certainly wouldn't be the first time, and won't be the last. The Conservancy has been better than the zookeeper but far from perfect, especially on the minor events.

15.0 inches to go by December 31, 2020 to get the 30 year average in NYC to 30 inches. What looked like a lock two years ago is starting to look iffy.

If no more snow falls between now and December 31, 2020, which is very unlikely despite the lousy pattern we're currently in, the new 30 year average from Jan 1 1991 to December 2020 would be 29.5 inches.

That CPK reading has to be BS. The radar and surface temp supported at least as much, if not more than EWR.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

It's par for the course but yesterdays totals of 0.9 inches at Newark, 0.7 inches at LGA and smack in the middle 0.2 inches at Central Park leads me to believe the Conservancy dropped the ball at the Park. It certainly wouldn't be the first time, and won't be the last. The Conservancy has been better than the zookeeper but far from perfect, especially on the minor events.

15.0 inches to go by December 31, 2020 to get the 30 year average in NYC to 30 inches. What looked like a lock two years ago is starting to look iffy.

If no more snow falls between now and December 31, 2020, which is very unlikely despite the lousy pattern we're currently in, the new 30 year average from Jan 1 1991 to December 2020 would be 29.5 inches.

That CPK reading has to be BS.  The radar and surface temp supported at least as much, if not more than EWR.

Of course it is.

Two airports which aren't great places for marginal snow events to accumulate, get 0.9 and 0.7 inches and right in the middle of them only 5 miles to either side a Park with mostly non paved areas measures 0.2 inches. I guarantee it's wrong, but I've become somewhat use to it after 40 odd years following the incompetence of a simple task like measuring snow.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

We're at the halfway mark for January and NYC is currently 10.2° above normal for the month, Poughkeepsie is 11.9° above normal, Trenton is 11.4° above and Albany is a ridiculous 14.6° above normal.

Nightmare flashbacks to December 2015, not quite as bad but getting close.

Hopefully the second half of the month sees a nice recovery downward, as several models have promised.

[heehaw453]

We're at the halfway mark for January and NYC is currently 10.2° above normal for the month, Poughkeepsie is 11.9° above normal, Trenton is 11.4° above and Albany is a ridiculous 14.6° above normal.

Nightmare flashbacks to December 2015, not quite as bad but getting close.

Hopefully the second half of the month sees a nice recovery downward, as several models have promised.

Do you know how much snowfall CPK has to date for January?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

We're at the halfway mark for January and NYC is currently 10.2° above normal for the month, Poughkeepsie is 11.9° above normal, Trenton is 11.4° above and Albany is a ridiculous 14.6° above normal.

Nightmare flashbacks to December 2015, not quite as bad but getting close.

Hopefully the second half of the month sees a nice recovery downward, as several models have promised.

Do you know how much snowfall CPK has to date for January?  

0.2 inches. It should be about an inch but they botched the last measurable snow low of course. We already discussed, so no reason to go in depth again. It's a long history.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Top Ten least snowiest winters in NYC since 1870

1972-73.....2.8 inches - hopefully never to be broken
2001-02.....3.5
1918-19.....3.8
1931-32.....5.3
1997-98.....5.5
2011-12.....7.4
1877-78.....8.1
1988-89.....8.1
1900-01.....9.1
1996-97...10.0

The fact that 3 of the top ten were in the 6 year period from 1996-97 to 2001-02, and 1998-99 didn't miss making the top ten by much at 12.7 inches, just emphasizes how nightmarish that period was. It was like a Stephen King novel for snow lovers.

[docstox12]

Top Ten least snowiest winters in NYC since 1870

   1972-73.....2.8 inches - hopefully never to be broken
   2001-02.....3.5
   1918-19.....3.8
   1931-32.....5.3
   1997-98.....5.5
   2011-12.....7.4
   1877-78.....8.1
   1988-89.....8.1
   1900-01.....9.1
   1996-97...10.0

The fact that 3 of the top ten were in the 6 year period from 1996-97 to 2001-02, and 1998-99 didn't miss making the top ten by much at 12.7 inches, just emphasizes how nightmarish that period was. It was like a Stephen King novel for snow lovers.

That 1996-1997, 1998-1999 and 2001-2002 were payback years, or reversion to the mean, after the once in a lifetime 1995-1996.
Remember that 1972-1973 well, a snowlovers HELL.I think there were some days in Jan.1973 in the 70's.

[Math23x7]

This Thursday will mark four years since CPK last had a 10"+ snowstorm. That was the 1/23/16 snowstorm when 27.5" of snow fell from "Jonas."

The biggest snow events of the season since then:

2016-17: 9.4" on 2/9/17
2017-18: 9.8" on 1/4/18
2018-19: 6.4" on 11/15/18
2019-20: 2.1" on 1/18/20 (so far)

Of course, if you're looking a longer 10"+ snowstorm drought, there was one that last 10+ years.
It was from February 1983 to March 1993.

Also, the last such snow drought that lasted this long went nearly five years. After February 1996, CPK would not have another 10"+ snowstorm until December 2000.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The stats below are for NYC, KNYC and represent the number of 10 inch or above, 6-9.9 inch and 6 inch or above snowfalls for each month since records have been kept the last 151 years. There have been 193 storms of 6 inches or above and 65 of 10 inches or above in this time frame.

Although December at 37, does have more 6 inch snowfalls then March (31), there have been more 6 inch snowfalls from March 1 forward (38) than in December. NYC's best month for large snowfalls and snowfall in general is historically February, not the last few years though.

No. of 10 + inch snows by Month
1…....November
12…..December
16…..January
25…..February
9…....March
2…....April
65….Total

No. of 6-9.9 inch snows by Month
4…......November
25…....December
32…....January
40…....February
22…....March
5…......April
128....Total

No. of 6 + inch snows by Month
5…......November
37…....December
48…....January
65…....February
31…....March
7…......April
193....Total

Here's the average snowfall per month at Central Park since January 1991 through January 2020, the period that the next 30 year averages will be calculated on. Right now its 30.3 inches, they need 12.9 more by December 31 to get a 30.0 inch average for the period.

October......0.1
November...0.5
December...4.9
January......8.7
February...10.5
March.........5.1
April...........0.4

Total......30.3

[Math23x7]

Since there are 365+1 days in the year (+1 being for leap years), there are 365+1 record highs and 365+1 record lows for each day in the year. Entering today, the lowest record high temperature during the year belonged to February 7th at 54* in 1938. That's right, from 1869 to 2019 every date during the year had a high temperature at or above 55 degrees at one point....except 2/7. That changed today when it hit a high of 56*, making it a new record high.

Even with the new record, February 7th still has the lowest record high temperature. The second lowest, at 58*, is for two dates: December 19th and January 16th.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I've touched on this subject quite a bit the last two years, but now that we're down to the last three weeks I thought it would be a good time to review where NYC, Central Park specifically, stands in the quest for a 30 inch snowfall average when the new 30 year averages are calculated next month.

For those not aware how it works the 30 year snowfall averages will be calculated for the period from January 1991 through December 2020. In short this will mean say goodbye to the 1980's from the averages, which hold the record as the least snowiest decade recorded.

Assuming NOAA calculates the averages for each month by rounding up or down to the nearest tenth of an inch, the months who have their 30 years completed look as follows:

October..........0.1

November.....0.5

December.....4.9 (29 year avg) final number to be determined

January.........8.7

February......10.1

March............5.0

April..............0.4

May..................T

The 30 year average calculated now would be 29.7 inches.

To get December to a 5.2 average, or in this case 5.15 which should round up to 5.2, Central Park will need to record 11.3 inches of snow this December, which is what will be needed to get the 30 year average to 30.0 inches. Currently the December 1991 -2020 period averages 4.773 inches which would round to 4.8 and would make the 30 year average 29.6 inches if no snow falls this December.

Here's to hoping that if Wednesday is indeed a surprise heavy snowfall for the city, the Conservancy? doesn't measure 11.2 inches and leave us hanging for the rest of the month.

Any interested parties please check the above numbers.

And we wait for the final returns.

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