Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Either way I think we will have more than 6 inches here in NYC area and can't wait cuz my daughter is becoming quite a snow lover (maybe a new member one day). She will get to see how crazy her dad really is lol.  I can't wait to play in the snow with her it is so much fun, I get to be a kid again.  Digging out the two car parking spots, not so fun.

Nuts NWS WSW lowered my totals by 3 inches, I hope they are wrong, now as low as 5.

meanwhile my stubborn and unaware about any incoming weather mother says its probably going to rain in central CT and Mass, lmao, she makes me so annoyed at times. I tried explain how cold it will be but she just doesn't get it.

rb924119 wrote:Man, I have seven minutes to decide if I want to be “sick” tonight and not log on to work, but track with you guys instead. This whole devil/desire on the left shoulder, angel/conscious on the right thing is killing me aha

Don’t! Save it for tomorrow night!

18z GFS through hr 30, more northern stream digging. Trough going neutral earlier

GFS is caving

Seems like its bringing more moisture back further onto land in PA/NJ/NY than in any previous run...

GFS definitely gave a nod to the more westward solns

1st call map. May need to have two more maps after this. One in the morning and another tomorrow night. I normally like to stick to two, but you know, complicated storm and all.

In tomorrow's update I'll get into specifics with start time, end time, wind potential, heaviest banding, etc. etc.

Yep, matches the snowfall map it last had at 18z on Tuesday. Now we just need that one or two last NW leans and its buckets for everybody!

Frank_Wx wrote:1st call map. May need to have two more maps after this. One in the morning and another tomorrow night. I normally like to stick to two, but you know, complicated storm and all.

In tomorrow's update I'll get into specifics with start time, end time, wind potential, heaviest banding, etc. etc.

Perfect name Frank. Did the current GFS run inform your map? Or rather, did it change your thoughts at all?

No, have not even seen the 18s GFS

adamfitz1969 wrote:GFS is caving

BOOOOM !!

Massive moves since yesterday you stubborn mule!!

essexcountypete wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:1st call map. May need to have two more maps after this. One in the morning and another tomorrow night. I normally like to stick to two, but you know, complicated storm and all.

In tomorrow's update I'll get into specifics with start time, end time, wind potential, heaviest banding, etc. etc.

Perfect name Frank. Did the current GFS run inform your map? Or rather, did it change your thoughts at all?

Wow! Quite aggressive here for the Island but I see where it could work! Hope so!

Lol just saw the weather channel. They show 4-8 inches across Long Island

Frank_Wx wrote:1st call map. May need to have two more maps after this. One in the morning and another tomorrow night. I normally like to stick to two, but you know, complicated storm and all.

In tomorrow's update I'll get into specifics with start time, end time, wind potential, heaviest banding, etc. etc.

Sitting here in Kings Park, Long Island (Suffolk County) your map is looking real good.

Frank_Wx wrote:1st call map. May need to have two more maps after this. One in the morning and another tomorrow night. I normally like to stick to two, but you know, complicated storm and all.

In tomorrow's update I'll get into specifics with start time, end time, wind potential, heaviest banding, etc. etc.

thats a good map, hoping it pushes west but if as set its decent for my area though im hella jelous of the 18-24+ lol, interested in your insight on wind impacts tomorrow, that NAM map was nuts.

Nice Frank. I was hoping the western flank of the gold over the north shore of LI should be about 3-4 miles further west I will probably update my map once more in the morning but Im def thinking totals need to be increased just a bit from east to west.

18z Canadian. Madonne…

Welcome to the party, GooFuS

Anymore shifts like this and we’ll be singing a very different tune…

18z GEFS



12z GEFS

GFS coming more inline now with everything else.

heehaw453 wrote:GFS coming more inline now with everything else.

Probably will never fully catch up to SR models. Mugs stubborn mule is right! But we been pulling the rope from Frank's post yesterday. I used to be a tug of war anchor so it was mostly me lol ok but I did work a summer camp and really was a anchor. I was a lot stronger back then

Just need consolidation about 2-3 hours earlier and then I95 will be have quite a different outcome.

New recon data will be ingested into tonight’s 00z runs. 

Here. We. Go.

Frank_Wx wrote:New recon data will be ingested into tonight’s 00z runs. 

Here. We. Go.

Shall we start the bidding? I am offering 2:1 odds on east... :p But in all seriousness, looks like it won't go far enough west for me to get anything.

Frank_Wx wrote:New recon data will be ingested into tonight’s 00z runs. 

Here. We. Go.

It’s happening…

Mainly a lurker here don’t post but have a dumb question. Should we be concerned about this coming so far west that we get rain? No it has not been mentioned much so just wondering. Thanks again you guys do a great job. I love the maps.

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Mainly a lurker here don’t post but have a dumb question. Should we be concerned about this coming so far west that we get rain? No it has not been mentioned much so just wondering. Thanks again you guys do a great job. I love the maps.

Not with this storm. It will be all snow, and ratios will likely exceed 10:1 for most.

Thank you so much