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Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:59 pm

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Mainly a lurker here don’t post but have a dumb question. Should we be concerned about this coming so far west that we get rain? No it has not been mentioned much so just wondering. Thanks again you guys do a great job. I love the maps.

Not with this storm. It will be all snow, and ratios will likely exceed 10:1 for most.

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Post by tomsriversnowstorm Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:00 pm

Thank you so much

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:02 pm

Atlantic City is going to crush monthly snowfall records for January.

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Post by Irish Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:44 pm

Anyone up for doing a zoom or Google meeting to talk like crazy fools all juiced up on GooFus juice!  Tomorrow night maybe?
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:50 pm

Irish wrote:Anyone up for doing a zoom or Google meeting to talk like crazy fools all juiced up on GooFus juice!  Tomorrow night maybe?

Depending on trends after 00z tonight we’ll likely have something tomorrow night

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:52 pm

Euro rolling
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:53 pm

Trough looks to be digging more
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:53 pm

WOW my counsins have a house there wish I could go b wild.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
320 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

MAZ024-280430-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.A.0005.220129T0500Z-220130T0500Z/
Nantucket MA-
Including the city of Nantucket
320 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to
14 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph.

* WHERE...Nantucket MA County.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Very
strong winds could cause extensive tree damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:54 pm

Judging by the NWS wind forecasts in their WSW the NAMS wind map may not be far off, B warnings are coming IMO even for our area along coast.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:59 pm

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 30 9f23fc10
Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 30 A49e6710
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:01 pm

Euro is fine but did not close off at 500mb until 15z-18z Saturday which seems later than last run. We want it to happen early like 09z-12z

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:02 pm

I sincerely think Boston is going to get a Frankzilla.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:04 pm

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 30 82A25DF7-287F-45EF-8FF7-2E1050E4BE9B.png.ad7df955b76791b6426c077c8f83d7ad

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Post by hyde345 Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:05 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Euro is fine but did not close off at 500mb until 15z-18z Saturday which seems later than last run. We want it to happen early like 09z-12z

Maybe with 00Z and new data.
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Post by uanswer2me Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:07 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 30 82A25DF7-287F-45EF-8FF7-2E1050E4BE9B.png.ad7df955b76791b6426c077c8f83d7ad

With this map it's only 10:1 ratios, what are you really thinking on ratios?

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:07 pm

Look at the cut offs on that snow map. Truly unreal

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:09 pm

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 30 961b2110

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:10 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Look at the cut offs on that snow map. Truly unreal
It is, is that going to be the reality? once past the heaviest snow its like 10-15 miles for each band of snow?
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Post by mmanisca Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:11 pm

Really improved! Wow!!!
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:14 pm

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 30 Euro50

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Post by uanswer2me Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:19 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 30 Euro50

Can you show all of South Jersey and Delaware my friend?

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:19 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 30 Euro50
holy bananas and my mom thinks it may just be rain shes under 35 in CT. when you say the 1-2 hrs might do it for I95 what amount are you putting at for I-95 when you say that? How much of a shift west if that 1-2 hrs earlier happens?
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Post by Zhukov1945 Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:23 pm


Please god let us get a hard west trend the ONE time it doesn’t mean rain and sleet and gunk instead of snow!
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:23 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 30 Euro50
holy bananas and my mom thinks it may just be rain shes under 35 in CT.  when you say the 1-2 hrs might do it for I95 what amount are you putting at for I-95 when you say that?  How much of a shift west if that 1-2 hrs earlier happens?

If this has consolidated close off say 522 dam around Cape May I95 is getting 12-18".

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Post by lglickman1 Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:25 pm

heehaw453 wrote:18Z Euro
I hope it's appreciated how close this truly is and 18Z is better than 12Z.  It's literally 1-2 hour earlier close off would do it for I95.  You will also notice more consolidation on the close off.  This may get 'er done just yet.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 30 Euro49

Is there any reason to think that it does close off earlier? Or there is nothing really pushing to close earlier and it will do what it wants to do?

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:25 pm

uanswer2me wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 30 Euro50

Can you show all of South Jersey and Delaware my friend?

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 30 Euro51

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Post by uanswer2me Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:28 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
uanswer2me wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 30 Euro50

Can you show all of South Jersey and Delaware my friend?

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 30 Euro51

Much appreciated, I am in Camden county 3 miles east of the Walt Whitman bridge. Praying it closes off earlier. 🤣

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