Re: Long Range Thread 26.0

[Radz]

I’ll take next weekend if Mon/Tuesday doesn’t pan out lol

[Frank_Wx]

The EURO continues to show a prolific storm along the coast early next week. I'm not particularly impressed with 500mb, however.



I circled in purple the southern and northern short wave energies that are poised to phase near the east coast. WHERE and WHEN is very important in terms of keeping it cold for snow (or even out to sea like the GFS shows). Heights are rising along the coast (black arrow) and the western ridge is looking kind of defeated. Notice how the heights over Arizona look quite meridional but we're seeing a spike over Idaho. That is not a terrific look, or one that will put the phase where we need it to be.



Here we are Monday evening. The ridge looks a little better but it's already too late. The southern stream is AHEAD of the northern stream. We wanted this phase to happen by now. But the overall flow is a little too quick. Not enough blocking mechanisms to slow the pace down.

Ultimately, the EURO still shows a big storm and brings snowfall to the area. But you have to put some weight on the GFS which shows a low impact event, because if the flow is as fast as it suggests (and I just showed why that is), then it may be onto something.

[Coachgriff]

I leave the maps to the Pros here…temperature tracking is something I can manage and those numbers have been trending up over the last two days and as a result my forecast has moved from mixing to all rain minus some wrap around snow showers on Tuesday morning. I think this will be something for the members north and west.

[heehaw453]

06Z Euro Control
This type of storm with H pressure support is a major snowstorm right to the coast. What we don't have is cold air being funneled down from Canada. Because of that we are depending on a phase to tilt the 500mb trough to engage the N/S sooner. If this thing looks like that about 4 hours sooner then it's interesting. Two reasons 1/if the trough doesn't go negative then precip isn't being thrown back effectively, 2/cold air sooner

[sroc4]

GFS most progressive and keeps the two JS separate. CMC phases too early and a coastal hugger. Euro baby bear...just right. This has serious potential. The meh for this weekend may just be a blessing in disguise.

[heehaw453]

Yep. Look at the tilt of the trough on 12Z Euro. That's everything due the correct time of the phasing of n/s and southern disturbance. It pulls back the mid-levels and puts the forcing onto the coast while supplying enough cold air. No other solution works and there is no wiggle room. We know how well we can depend on the perfect solution especially this winter.

[sroc4]

Yep. Look at the tilt of the trough on 12Z Euro. That's everything due the correct time of the phasing of n/s and southern disturbance. It pulls back the mid-levels and puts the forcing onto the coast while supplying enough cold air. No other solution works and there is no wiggle room. We know how well we can depend on the perfect solution especially this winter.

Just because we haven't had this sort of eye candy all season Im posting the surface reflection. CCB of death...gorgeous. I know some of the sites like pivitol are showing a mix but Ill take this set up all day. IMO GFS is too progressive with the system. I think this thing phases with how clogged the Atlantic is, but its a matter of where.

[sroc4]

Yep. Look at the tilt of the trough on 12Z Euro. That's everything due the correct time of the phasing of n/s and southern disturbance. It pulls back the mid-levels and puts the forcing onto the coast while supplying enough cold air. No other solution works and there is no wiggle room. We know how well we can depend on the perfect solution especially this winter.

Just because we haven't had this sort of eye candy all season Im posting the surface reflection.  CCB of death...gorgeous.  I know some of the sites like pivitol are showing a mix but Ill take this set up all day.  IMO GFS is too progressive with the system.  I think this thing phases with how clogged the Atlantic is, but its a matter of where.  

Low Tracks somewhere inside this.

[nutleyblizzard]

Yep. Look at the tilt of the trough on 12Z Euro. That's everything due the correct time of the phasing of n/s and southern disturbance. It pulls back the mid-levels and puts the forcing onto the coast while supplying enough cold air. No other solution works and there is no wiggle room. We know how well we can depend on the perfect solution especially this winter.

Just because we haven't had this sort of eye candy all season Im posting the surface reflection.  CCB of death...gorgeous.  I know some of the sites like pivitol are showing a mix but Ill take this set up all day.  IMO GFS is too progressive with the system.  I think this thing phases with how clogged the Atlantic is, but its a matter of where.  

I agree. I take that setup and track. Hypothetically if that scenario came to pass, I can see the thermals trend colder once the short range models got a hold of it.

[amugs]

EURO BRINGS BABY BACK!! THAT'S AN ABSOLUTE BOMB!!
A 30 HOUR PLUS STORM MOMMA MIA - JAN 31 TO FEB 2 RING ANY BELLS OF 2021?



CRAWLS UP THE COAST.

[heehaw453]

EPS will probably be good. I am in agreement there will be a storm, but due to lack of strong H pressure and needing the perfect phase is where I'm like and that's where I'll stay until we get decent agreement and consistency.

[amugs]

[amugs]

Definitely intriguiging but 4 days away so we temper the excitement - it would be fitting 30 years later to the day we get a doozy, no? Superstorm 1993 - not that this is at ALL but weather loves to repeat and rhyme!

[sroc4]

EPS will probably be good. I am in agreement there will be a storm, but due to lack of strong H pressure and needing the perfect phase is where I'm like and that's where I'll stay until we get decent agreement and consistency.

[sroc4]

[sroc4]

12z Yesterday for comparison

[sroc4]

Ukies 2cents

[jmanley32]

Great analysis by all but I knew this wasn't going to work out at least for coast, not hyped but you all sounded super interested in this one, so I will assume Tuesday will be exactly the same and lose interest as we hit the weekend.  I am ready for spring unless we can actually get a storm for the coast next week. After that I am done tracking, not reaching CP level stress (jk CP) but its just not really worth looking at and being let down what 20x this year?

Looks like mid -afternoon to rush hour?

Why does it matter sounds like yet another rain event, too warm.

Bring your negativity and banter to the banter thread. Thanks!

Sorry sir moment of weakness. Heres to hoping for a biggie but I am not getting my hopes up, I di not think that is being negative with the way this season is going especially us closer to the coast.

[CNWestMilford]

[jmanley32]

If that Euro happens verbatim I will not be on (cuz I would be so sour), 6 inches and but 40 miles maybe less to NW 25-30 inches, thats just a horse kick to the head. Not taking anything with snow maps to heart now this far out just saying. There must be a lot of rain and mixing on coast (6-9/10 showing IMBY) for there to be 12+ just a few miles inland. I will take the UKMET, much better for more people on here. But I am sure CP will take that Euro verbatim, I guess 6+ is still pretty darn good now to think of it but it would still be disappointing. But those maps will change 20x before game time.

[sroc4]

If that Euro happens verbatim I will not be on (cuz I would be so sour), 6 inches and but 40 miles maybe less to NW 25-30 inches, thats just a horse kick to the head. Not taking anything with snow maps to heart now this far out just saying. There must be a lot of rain and mixing on coast (6-9/10 showing IMBY) for there to be 12+ just a few miles inland. I will take the UKMET, much better for more people on here. But I am sure CP will take that Euro verbatim, I guess 6+ is still pretty darn good now to think of it but it would still be disappointing. But those maps will change 20x before game time.

More negativity Jon

[jmanley32]

If that Euro happens verbatim I will not be on (cuz I would be so sour), 6 inches and but 40 miles maybe less to NW 25-30 inches, thats just a horse kick to the head. Not taking anything with snow maps to heart now this far out just saying. There must be a lot of rain and mixing on coast (6-9/10 showing IMBY) for there to be 12+ just a few miles inland. I will take the UKMET, much better for more people on here. But I am sure CP will take that Euro verbatim, I guess 6+ is still pretty darn good now to think of it but it would still be disappointing. But those maps will change 20x before game time.

More negativity Jon

Bah kick ricks lol jk, actually not being in the kill zone is a good thing usually now that I think of it. And in the end it is what it is right. We can't control weather. Not being negative being truthful thats not allowed? I am cracking up because I never understood that emoji thought it was a guy with a pony tail, then i saw the wording for it "scratch" and ahhh makes sense lmao. You know we all want to be in that hot spot come on now

But in more seriousness, when I saw the maps of the storm it looked like all snow all way down well past coast NYC area but judging from that Euro run snow map above there would have to have been mixing issues for coast with such lower amounts but model run did not show that, it showed all snow. Can you explain?

[dkodgis]

March has weird weather. It is the big swing month from winter to spring. We have no snowpack and the sun is brighter, longer in the sky. Wild weather abounds. We'll see if any cold air comes and if there is phasing. It is I think a wait and see thing but how it plays out is good to me. It is exciting to see weather at work, at least for me it is until I have to shovel snow. In about four weeks, it will all be over and everyone is invited to come over to the Coconut Lounge to commiserate.

[heehaw453]

GFS just missed on the phase timing. Pretty close though.

[amugs]

GFS is comimg around - its known progressive bias is at play give until 12Z tomorrow.

[amugs]

MJO off the charts Phase 8 = BN Temps and Stormy possiblities EC







Phase 1 and 2 for March are good - 2 is excellent = SPRING DENIED for a few days to maybe week !!!

[heehaw453]

18Z Euro
Trying to analyze surface map.  There are some intriguing ingredients.  

Surface Low starting to intensify off OBX. Banana H in the mid-west and stout 50/50 blocking up the Atlantic. Also weak CAD bleeding down from New England.

Then looking at the 500mb you have a ridge developing just to the west of the Rockies. 

You'd have me with this if we had the 1035 H over Quebec fully extending that banana H. But we rely on phasing to suck in the n/s.  I guess I'm warming up a bit to this...

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