Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season

by **amugs** Sun Sep 10, 2023 10:15 pm

This would be well alarming if it did happen from WxBell SPIRE #1 Analog.

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by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 10, 2023 10:52 pm

11pm update cone shifted slightly west, barely notable but he is now moving NW, no longer WNW so it looks like he is already going to start to being that turn and not stay south.

by **Dunnzoo** Sun Sep 10, 2023 11:00 pm

jmanley32 wrote:11pm update cone shifted slightly west, barely notable but he is now moving NW, no longer WNW so it looks like he is already going to start to being that turn and not stay south.

He is also forecast to slow down over the next few days.

"A slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days." per the 11 pm advisory.

by **jmanley32** Mon Sep 11, 2023 6:12 am

A jump west again on euro outer edge now gets into eastern CT and far tip of LI. I think it may be a trend now. Gfs is also west a tiny bit. But he has started to go NW cone still shows a basically north track no turn ots either. Anyone have euro ensembles? Doesnt look to make it to 70W does that mean we are more likely in the clear or is that no longer as big a factor since he is slowing down?

by **sroc4** Mon Sep 11, 2023 8:10 am

Continued strengthening taking place. Continued slow slow slow. Throughout the day expect to see the track wobble a little but overall the track is WNW to plain NW. Next couple of days will be telling.

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by **jmanley32** Mon Sep 11, 2023 8:58 am

sroc4 wrote:Continued strengthening taking place. Continued slow slow slow. Throughout the day expect to see the track wobble a little but overall the track is WNW to plain NW. Next couple of days will be telling.

Do we think he will get even close to 70/72W? If not does that mean he will be further east or even OTS? Or will the slow down no longer make that a player as he will miss the trough. Forgive me for asking the same question just want to understand. Seems from overnight models everything continues to shift west especially the Euro and GFS to a lesser extent, CMC throw out IMO.

by **sroc4** Mon Sep 11, 2023 9:27 am

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Continued strengthening taking place. Continued slow slow slow. Throughout the day expect to see the track wobble a little but overall the track is WNW to plain NW. Next couple of days will be telling.

Do we think he will get even close to 70/72W? If not does that mean he will be further east or even OTS? Or will the slow down no longer make that a player as he will miss the trough. Forgive me for asking the same question just want to understand. Seems from overnight models everything continues to shift west especially the Euro and GFS to a lesser extent, CMC throw out IMO.

I wouldn't get too hung up on those numbers Jon...ie: if he doesn't reach this far west it means this, vs if he does it means that. The important point now is that the trend is to miss he first trough and recurve back west. This always had to happen in order for a direct impact on the US. This seems more and more likely now. For the record I dont think Lee has a chance in hell at making it to 72 W.

When does it miss, and how far west and where is it, (what Latitude AND Longitude)?

Does it even recurve west at all or simply head north for a bit before recurving NE by the next trough? Same question...how far east vs west/north vs south if this scenario plays out.

by **GreyBeard** Mon Sep 11, 2023 10:28 am

At this time, it seems that most pro mets. don't see much impact on our area with the exception of some high seas.Not even forecasting much rain.Here is one's take on Lee's projected path.

CBS News senior weather and climate producer David Parkinson estimated Monday, "if you sum up all the probabilities," the odds are about 2/3 against any U.S. landfall and a 1/3 chance of landfall along the northeast U.S. coast. He estimated the chances at only about 2% of Lee hitting between the Hamptons, on New York's Long Island, and Buzzard's Bay, at the western edge of Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and about 5% from Cape Cod to Portland, Maine.

"A down east Maine landfall is probably hovering in the 20-25% range," he said, adding that it would likely be a "weak Category 1 or a strong tropical storm" at that point, "likely late Saturday or early Sunday" this coming weekend.

Earlier, Parkinson had laid out a few possible scenarios for Lee. One would involve a cold front coming off the East Coast that could trap Lee and push it north against the coastline, bringing potentially stormy weather to areas along the coast.

However, if no cold front forms, Parkinson explained, Lee would then potentially stay out at sea for a longer period until it reaches Newfoundland and Labrador in Canada. By that point, it would be significantly weakened".

Of course we are still a long ways off from anything being set in stone so it's still a waiting game at this point.

by **jmanley32** Mon Sep 11, 2023 11:16 am

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Continued strengthening taking place. Continued slow slow slow. Throughout the day expect to see the track wobble a little but overall the track is WNW to plain NW. Next couple of days will be telling.

Do we think he will get even close to 70/72W? If not does that mean he will be further east or even OTS? Or will the slow down no longer make that a player as he will miss the trough. Forgive me for asking the same question just want to understand. Seems from overnight models everything continues to shift west especially the Euro and GFS to a lesser extent, CMC throw out IMO.

I wouldn't get too hung up on those numbers Jon...ie: if he doesn't reach this far west it means this, vs if he does it means that. The important point now is that the trend is to miss he first trough and recurve back west. This always had to happen in order for a direct impact on the US. This seems more and more likely now. For the record I dont think Lee has a chance in hell at making it to 72 W.

When does it miss, and how far west and where is it, (what Latitude AND Longitude)?

Does it even recurve west at all or simply head north for a bit before recurving NE by the next trough? Same question...how far east vs west/north vs south if this scenario plays out.

Okay thanks, I know mugs had posted days ago this was important, you can see cone is slightly west, and GFS ensembles def have a number curving west. Could he curve sooner than nearing the cape lets see, that would put us in a bad spot if so.

by **jmanley32** Mon Sep 11, 2023 11:19 am

GreyBeard wrote:At this time, it seems that most pro mets. don't see much impact on our area with the exception of some high seas.Not even forecasting much rain.Here is one's take on Lee's projected path.

CBS News senior weather and climate producer David Parkinson estimated Monday, "if you sum up all the probabilities," the odds are about 2/3 against any U.S. landfall and a 1/3 chance of landfall along the northeast U.S. coast. He estimated the chances at only about 2% of Lee hitting between the Hamptons, on New York's Long Island, and Buzzard's Bay, at the western edge of Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and about 5% from Cape Cod to Portland, Maine.

"A down east Maine landfall is probably hovering in the 20-25% range," he said, adding that it would likely be a "weak Category 1 or a strong tropical storm" at that point, "likely late Saturday or early Sunday" this coming weekend.

Earlier, Parkinson had laid out a few possible scenarios for Lee. One would involve a cold front coming off the East Coast that could trap Lee and push it north against the coastline, bringing potentially stormy weather to areas along the coast.

However, if no cold front forms, Parkinson explained, Lee would then potentially stay out at sea for a longer period until it reaches Newfoundland and Labrador in Canada. By that point, it would be significantly weakened".

Of course we are still a long ways off from anything being set in stone so it's still a waiting game at this point.

Of course at this lead time the pro-mets are go say this, just like snow storms they don't necessarily say things we see to not cause unnecessary panic. Not that there is reason for panic...at least yet, if at all.

by **GreyBeard** Mon Sep 11, 2023 12:02 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Of course at this lead time the pro-mets are go say this, just like snow storms they don't necessarily say things we see to not cause unnecessary panic. Not that there is reason for panic...at least yet, if at all.

I don't know if I'd agree with you on that. I would hope they would give as much lead time as they could if they knew a major weather event was going to have a significant impact. All in all, I find they normally have a pretty good handle on things, especially with all the modern technology that is available to them. Just my opinion.

by **jmanley32** Mon Sep 11, 2023 12:27 pm

GreyBeard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Of course at this lead time the pro-mets are go say this, just like snow storms they don't necessarily say things we see to not cause unnecessary panic. Not that there is reason for panic...at least yet, if at all.

I don't know if I'd agree with you on that. I would hope they would give as much lead time as they could if they knew a major weather event was going to have a significant impact. All in all, I find they normally have a pretty good handle on things, especially with all the modern technology that is available to them. Just my opinion.

you could be right we will see. Only time will tell.

by **GreyBeard** Mon Sep 11, 2023 12:59 pm

From the National Hurricane Center Director. Touches on upwelling effects which sroc and rb were schooling me on last month.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/hurricane-lee-slows-down-before-eventual-northward-turn-later-this-week/vi-AA1gyAPl?ocid=socialshare&cvid=0d34c1841d334a8fb0a359d3c5dd6dd1&ei=8

by **amugs** Mon Sep 11, 2023 1:49 pm

GFS 12Z RUN *CLOSER* TO MY TRACK IDEA..
The ops run of the afternoon GFS shows my idea pretty nicely with a bend back toward Gulf of Maine with a much weaker #HurricaneLee ... This will look and feel very much like a powerful #Noreaster going into next week.

The reason you see… pic.twitter.com/t9Zi79yNZz
— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) September 11, 2023

GFS shows the sandy esque hook - timing is everything - hours away from Cape Cod or ELI but effects shall be felt to those areas, espeially the Cape.

by **amugs** Mon Sep 11, 2023 2:19 pm

Sat morning max wind gusts as per GFS.

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by **jmanley32** Mon Sep 11, 2023 2:30 pm

So looking like it won't be any further west? So we in the clear here except maybe some surf? Or are we still in question how far west? Seems like a consensus of Cape Cod to Nova for landfall area, or are scott and rb saying NJ to maine/nova?

Jon I'd say NJ is off teh table at this point. ELI thorugh Nova Scotia in play. BUT letthem dsicuss this is just muy .02.
Lots of time to go.

by **jmanley32** Mon Sep 11, 2023 2:31 pm

amugs wrote:Sat morning max wind gusts as per GFS.

Im gonna be in that yellow in far eastern, CT hopefully I will be okay. Looks like we can handle this, as stated by Mancuso a strong noreaster.

by **sroc4** Mon Sep 11, 2023 2:52 pm

jmanley32 wrote:So looking like it won't be any further west? So we in the clear here except maybe some surf? Or are we still in question how far west? Seems like a consensus of Cape Cod to Nova for landfall area, or are scott and rb saying NJ to maine/nova?

Jon I'd say NJ is off teh table at this point. ELI thorugh Nova Scotia in play. BUT letthem dsicuss this is just muy .02.
Lots of time to go.

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by **Dunnzoo** Mon Sep 11, 2023 3:01 pm

jmanley32 wrote:So looking like it won't be any further west? So we in the clear here except maybe some surf? Or are we still in question how far west? Seems like a consensus of Cape Cod to Nova for landfall area, or are scott and rb saying NJ to maine/nova?

Jon I'd say NJ is off teh table at this point. ELI thorugh Nova Scotia in play. BUT letthem dsicuss this is just muy .02.
Lots of time to go.

No one is in the clear yet, as per some pro Mets. Is it likely it comes as far west as NYC? Probably not, but I haven't seen anyone say NYC is in the clear. They all mention waiting until Tuesday night or Wednesday when it will make the turn north.

by **jmanley32** Mon Sep 11, 2023 3:31 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:So looking like it won't be any further west? So we in the clear here except maybe some surf? Or are we still in question how far west? Seems like a consensus of Cape Cod to Nova for landfall area, or are scott and rb saying NJ to maine/nova?

Jon I'd say NJ is off teh table at this point. ELI thorugh Nova Scotia in play. BUT letthem dsicuss this is just muy .02.
Lots of time to go.

Hey that's not nice, okay no more questionable questions. We don't know I get it, just looking at models it appears that a consensus is starting. Thats IMO.

by **amugs** Mon Sep 11, 2023 3:33 pm

LAWD HELP US IF THIS HAFS-B RUN VERIFIES! This would basically be New England's Sandy verbatim! Headed NW at the end of the run. Lots of time left for this to change! pic.twitter.com/lKzseeDmnD
— Matthew Gross (@HurricaneAddict) September 11, 2023

Holy yikes

by **jmanley32** Mon Sep 11, 2023 3:33 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:So looking like it won't be any further west? So we in the clear here except maybe some surf? Or are we still in question how far west? Seems like a consensus of Cape Cod to Nova for landfall area, or are scott and rb saying NJ to maine/nova?

Jon I'd say NJ is off teh table at this point. ELI thorugh Nova Scotia in play. BUT letthem dsicuss this is just muy .02.
Lots of time to go.

No one is in the clear yet, as per some pro Mets. Is it likely it comes as far west as NYC? Probably not, but I haven't seen anyone say NYC is in the clear. They all mention waiting until Tuesday night or Wednesday when it will make the turn north.

Makes sense, okay will keep watching and not ask anymore unknowns. I will try my hardest lol

by **amugs** Mon Sep 11, 2023 3:37 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:So looking like it won't be any further west? So we in the clear here except maybe some surf? Or are we still in question how far west? Seems like a consensus of Cape Cod to Nova for landfall area, or are scott and rb saying NJ to maine/nova?

Jon I'd say NJ is off teh table at this point. ELI thorugh Nova Scotia in play. BUT letthem dsicuss this is just muy .02.
Lots of time to go.

No one is in the clear yet, as per some pro Mets. Is it likely it comes as far west as NYC? Probably not, but I haven't seen anyone say NYC is in the clear. They all mention waiting until Tuesday night or Wednesday when it will make the turn north.

Zoo we flipped positions, I am the aggressive and you the calmer. I can see effects but I don't see a direct hit on NJ is my point. Again my .02, I think again ELI through NS are the ones that can take a landfall if to occur.

Time will tell.

Latest hurricane model shows the sandyesque hook like GFS but about 150 miles sooner.

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Sep 11, 2023 3:46 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:So looking like it won't be any further west? So we in the clear here except maybe some surf? Or are we still in question how far west? Seems like a consensus of Cape Cod to Nova for landfall area, or are scott and rb saying NJ to maine/nova?

Jon I'd say NJ is off teh table at this point. ELI thorugh Nova Scotia in play. BUT letthem dsicuss this is just muy .02.
Lots of time to go.

No one is in the clear yet, as per some pro Mets. Is it likely it comes as far west as NYC? Probably not, but I haven't seen anyone say NYC is in the clear. They all mention waiting until Tuesday night or Wednesday when it will make the turn north.
Makes sense, okay will keep watching and not ask anymore unknowns. I will try my hardest lol

\

I know, it's hard. I already got a call from our Mayor (I'm the Deputy OEM Coordinator) asking if we should be concerned and if we should have a meeting of all emergency departments. People want to know so they can be prepared, I do too, it's so hard to wait for the damn thing to start it way north!

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Sep 11, 2023 3:50 pm

amugs wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:So looking like it won't be any further west? So we in the clear here except maybe some surf? Or are we still in question how far west? Seems like a consensus of Cape Cod to Nova for landfall area, or are scott and rb saying NJ to maine/nova?

Jon I'd say NJ is off teh table at this point. ELI thorugh Nova Scotia in play. BUT letthem dsicuss this is just muy .02.
Lots of time to go.

No one is in the clear yet, as per some pro Mets. Is it likely it comes as far west as NYC? Probably not, but I haven't seen anyone say NYC is in the clear. They all mention waiting until Tuesday night or Wednesday when it will make the turn north.

Zoo we flipped positions, I am the aggressive and you the calmer. I can see effects but I don't see a direct hit on NJ is my point. Again my .02, I think again ELI through NS are the ones that can take a landfall if to occur.

Time will tell.

Latest hurricane model shows the sandyesque hook like GFS but about 150 miles sooner.

lol, yeah I've had to coax our Mayor off the ledge a few times, since we flood easily he always wants to know everything NOW. I have become the voice of reason in town. king

by **jmanley32** Mon Sep 11, 2023 4:07 pm

amugs wrote:
LAWD HELP US IF THIS HAFS-B RUN VERIFIES! This would basically be New England's Sandy verbatim! Headed NW at the end of the run. Lots of time left for this to change! pic.twitter.com/lKzseeDmnD
— Matthew Gross (@HurricaneAddict) September 11, 2023

Holy yikes

Does this model have any clout? Never heard of it, I presume it falls under the HWRF category? The intensity is nuts too. That projected out looks like it would be a NJ landfall. Just waiting and seeing, was just curious since you posted it. You always post stuff that is of use. And you were not harsh, scott on the other hand with the head bashing, lordy that was a bit much.

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Sep 11, 2023 4:52 pm

Per NHC 5 pm public advisory:

"DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 64.2 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow west-northwest to
northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days,
followed by turn toward the north by midweek. On the forecast track,
Lee is expected to pass near, but to the west, of Bermuda in a few
days."

Lee Goldberg thinks the next trough will keep Lee offshore, with maybe some clouds from Lee this weekend. He seems to think it will be very very close to Cape Cod.

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