Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II

by **Irish** Fri Jan 05, 2024 7:49 pm

rb924119 wrote:I have a good feeling about 00z runs tonight. I don’t know why, but I do lol

This is some roller coaster ride!!

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:06 pm

SREFS are better……faster to close off 850 again. Shifted the 850 freezing line about 20 miles south/east. Let’s see what the rest of the maps look like.

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:09 pm

Hopefully this carries over to the NAM.

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:11 pm

rb924119 wrote:SREFS are better……faster to close off 850 again. Shifted the 850 freezing line about 20 miles south/east. Let’s see what the rest of the maps look like.

A lot wetter, too.

by **nutleyblizzard** Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:18 pm

rb924119 wrote:I have a good feeling about 00z runs tonight. I don’t know why, but I do lol

Things to look for tonight for a snowier outcome: a quicker transfer of the primary to the coast. Too far north as currently depicted, the city and coast is toast. Also as the low heads for the BM, a quicker intensification / consolidation of the low will help establish a CCB band.

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:24 pm

To piggyback off your post, nutley, there are hints of better CCB on the SREFS, mainly for the Hudson Valley and NEPA, but based on the look of H7 RH plots, there’s a signature there. Waiting on the 3-hrly QPF maps to confirm.

by **dkodgis** Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:26 pm

A cold conveyor belt on the north side of the storm?

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:36 pm

dkodgis wrote:A cold conveyor belt on the north side of the storm?

Yeah, that’s where it actually originates in all storms. The reason why it mainifests on the northwestern and western sides is because that’s typically where it’s forced to start ascending via the forcing mechanisms.

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:37 pm

rb924119 wrote:To piggyback off your post, nutley, there are hints of better CCB on the SREFS, mainly for the Hudson Valley and NEPA, but based on the look of H7 RH plots, there’s a signature there. Waiting on the 3-hrly QPF maps to confirm.

Definitely decent support for the Hudson Valley/NNJ, not as many get it all the way back to NEPA. That’ll be dependent on exactly where/when lower level circulations close off.

by **aiannone** Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:38 pm

rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:SREFS are better……faster to close off 850 again. Shifted the 850 freezing line about 20 miles south/east. Let’s see what the rest of the maps look like.

A lot wetter, too.

Are you trying to rope me back in. I’ve already called time of death lol

by **dkodgis** Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:39 pm

And now seemingly ending sooner Sat night, and moving out faster

by **amugs** Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:48 pm

SE jog last minute is what most storms do with this as the overcorrect N. Also, the DP are in the 20's in NNJ and into the HV. Models are not catching the CAD and that will be an issue and only nowcasting will see this.

JH says this in his post and said it is a major concern.

Both the 18z HRRR and HRDPS have an area of dynamic, heavy precipitation moving through Northern NJ and the NYC Metro on Saturday evening. Forecast soundings show dynamic cooling which keeps the thermal profile *just* cold enough for snow. This will be a nail biter. pic.twitter.com/s0gsG1opSY
— John Homenuk (@jhomenuk) January 5, 2024

Also you have a wrap around scenerio for late Sunday morning into Sunday later afternoon - EURO, NAM both have it as does HRDPS and RGEM. Circled area over LI it consolidates and explodes with back end snows into NNJ and NY State

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 3 GDHn1R3XcAAwveQ?format=jpg&name=900x900

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 3 GDHn1R3XcAAwveQ?format=jpg&name=900x900

EURO has a 700MB vorticity beast over SE of NYC - thats a bomb for NENJ, Rockland, W Passsaic, Orange and N WEstchester I'd say...if true

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 3 GDH3627W8AAuQKs?format=jpg&name=medium

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 3 GDH3627W8AAuQKs?format=jpg&name=medium

850 cold to the Driscoll Bridge

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 3 GDH3626WUAABODy?format=jpg&name=medium

700 are very cold down to NYC

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 3 GDH363AW8AAIWvJ?format=jpg&name=medium

925 are cold down to Driscoll Bridge as well - that is CAD signature I was referring to above

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:51 pm

dkodgis wrote:And now seemingly ending sooner Sat night, and moving out faster

You’re forgetting the wrap-around snows. Goes through early afternoon, as mugsy said.

by **amugs** Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:51 pm

0Z NAM ROLLING!

by **amugs** Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:53 pm

Looks a tick colder through 14hrs.

by **amugs** Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:58 pm

by **frank 638** Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:02 pm

amugs wrote:

do you think in NYC especially where I live in the Bronx it will start out as snow then change over to just sleet or go over to plain rain

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:05 pm

This run is definitely slower than earlier. It’s more amplified for sure.

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:07 pm

Not sure that’s gonna hurt us here or not, though - it could be a sign of an earlier occlusion/eastward slide after this point……

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:08 pm

It’s trying SO hard to close off at H7. Oof.

by **amugs** Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:09 pm

NAM!!!!!!!!!! SE jog like I said and colder!!

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 3 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_28

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:09 pm

It actually does over Harrisburg, but I’m not sure it’ll hold. Even if it does, if it doesn’t go east from there, it’s not great for the City as it would likely dryslot for a while until it gets to the east.

by **amugs** Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:10 pm

rb924119 wrote:Not sure that’s gonna hurt us here or not, though - it could be a sign of an earlier occlusion/eastward slide after this point……

A 100 mile SE jog is all it just did follwoing 18Z GFS but a bit more by about 50 miles

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:10 pm

WAY colder Smile

by **amugs** Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:16 pm

rb924119 wrote:WAY colder

Trying to start wrap arounds now - could be interesting for Sunday after a heavy initial thump - like a 2 part storm setting up now Saturday afternoon into night and again Monday morning through mid afternoon if its real of course!

by **amugs** Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:18 pm

amugs wrote:
rb924119 wrote:WAY colder

Trying to start wrap arounds now - could be interesting for Sunday after a heavy initial thump - like a 2 part storm setting up now Saturday afternoon into night and again Monday morning through mid afternoon if its real of course!

AND.............. we have take off ladies n gentlemen 0Z NAM just saved the storm LOL!!

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 3 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_37

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:19 pm

amugs wrote:
amugs wrote:
rb924119 wrote:WAY colder

Trying to start wrap arounds now - could be interesting for Sunday after a heavy initial thump - like a 2 part storm setting up now Saturday afternoon into night and again Monday morning through mid afternoon if its real of course!

AND.............. we have take off ladies n gentlemen 0Z NAM just saved the storm LOL!!

I LOVE IT WHEN A PLAN COMES TOGETHER!! Lmao I’m getting totally NAM’d here in NEPA too aha

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