February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Winter Storm Watch for Hunterdon Co NJ. Which is interesting because the forecast atm (2-4”) is not Watch criteria. It appears they’re issuing it because they’re hedging their bets that an outcome line the NAM could come to fruition which would be over 6” here. Shows an unusual amount of uncertainty for them as typically they’d just issue an Advisory if they were all-in in the more modest amounts and upgrade later if necessary.

There's definitely uncertainty with this. Here (18Z GFS) you have a full maturation of the mid-levels (first picture). If that occurs 50 miles south west then that puts the I95 (TTN-NYC) in the axis of heavier snow. Note last night's GFS 00Z 850 vorticity and the difference of say 50 miles in the maturation process from what it's showing now.  

As is it's close, but IMO blossoms a little too late for I95/coastal plain as it's right on the BM. An efficient transfer that allow for the mid-levels to start closing off and maturing around Cape May/DE is what's needed for I95/Coastal Plain. What we're seeing now is the maturation take a little longer and the mid-levels ride a bit further north.

As a rule of thumb you want to be on the NW side of the mid-levels during their maturation. Parallel doesn't work.

Total boom or bust for the I95 Middlesex Cty to NYC. Truly.

heehaw453 wrote:Total boom or bust for the I95 Middlesex Cty to NYC. Truly.

I agree! That’s what makes the call hard. It’s not like you can split the difference between the 6-10+ and 2-4 with say a nice 3-6 zone. I think you rip 6+ or you don’t (maybe some white rain slushy c-1-2).

MattyICE wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Total boom or bust for the I95 Middlesex Cty to NYC. Truly.

I agree!  That’s what makes the call hard. It’s not like you can split the difference between the 6-10+ and 2-4 with say a nice 3-6 zone. I think you rip 6+ or you don’t (maybe some white rain slushy c-1-2).

Also agree. Which means this will be painful if it doesn’t work out

That look is an I-81 special on the h850. Scranton to BGH would do very well with that setup. Move that over about 75-100 miles to the east then we'd looking at these parts for a big snow event. If that doesn't change it is what is. I'm not sure if these goal posts or we're playing second half of tracking on a new field.

Frank_Wx wrote:

MattyICE wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Total boom or bust for the I95 Middlesex Cty to NYC. Truly.

I agree!  That’s what makes the call hard. It’s not like you can split the difference between the 6-10+ and 2-4 with say a nice 3-6 zone. I think you rip 6+ or you don’t (maybe some white rain slushy c-1-2).

Also agree. Which means this will be painful if it doesn’t work out

I have low confidence for the area mentioned, sadly and I hope I am wrong but I think the area sees some snow but just a tease

00z NAM about to run

Biggest NAM run since 2009 Boxing Day

0z NAM running, let's see what it holds.

If you want to teach someone the art of patience, make them sit and watch a model run download with a possible winter storm approaching. Refresh, hour 27. Refresh, hour 27. Refresh, hour 30. Refresh, hour 30. Refresh, hour 33 . . . . .

Frank_Wx wrote:00z NAM about to run

Biggest NAM run since 2009 Boxing Day

biggest run in 15 years? Isn’t this only 6-12 potential?

If anything looks a bit south at hour 51, which is a good sign. But no drastic differences have emerged so far.

Still running, but from what I can see already at hour 60 I think the 0z NAM will continue to be colder and further south than the GFS. Looks like this run is fixing to hold serve on the colder/further south solution the NAM has been showing today.

Yep. NAM is not only holding serve on the colder snowier solution, it has improved since the last run. This is a very good run for most on this board. Will post updated snow map shortly to show difference between 18z and 0z

Delmarva ftw!

Not a big difference but a bit further south. More importantly, it’s not caving to the GFS so it’s holding with the colder/more south solution. For now.
NAM 0z (current run)

NAM 18z (previous run)

billg315 wrote:Not a big difference but a bit further south. More importantly, it’s not caving to the GFS so it’s holding with the colder/more south solution. For now.
NAM 0z (current run)

NAM 18z (previous run)

It has almost caved. Look at the 12z compared to 00z. It's significantly farther north and stronger.

Koroptim wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:00z NAM about to run

Biggest NAM run since 2009 Boxing Day

biggest  run in 15 years?  Isn’t this only 6-12 potential?

That was sarcasm

However, it was an important run. I agree with Bill. It did NOT trend north. The surface low stayed far enough south to keep the cold air lingering. It’s a win-win for many on here. Unfortunately, I think anyone south of CNJ is out of this game.

Sadly the RGEM came north

That mid-level track works (first picture) on NAM 00Z. The resistance (second picture) is about 100 miles south of where it is on the 18Z GFS. That keeps the ULL and corresponding mid-levels further south. 00Z RGEM fairly close to the NAM track. It's a pin prick difference at this point, but the sensible weather is quite different.

Frank_Wx wrote:Sadly the RGEM came north

Eh, throw it out, we don't like that option.

We'll see what the models show tomorrow, but unfortunately I have a feeling that for a large percentage of people on this forum, we're not going to know what we're getting until Monday evening. If then.
At least the Super Bowl can serve as a distraction tomorrow.

Models tonight are BGH-->ALB-->Worcester special. I think above route 80 and elevated areas can still do OK. 4-8" type deal? I would definitely give it another 24 hours, but we've seen time and again we've struggled to get a tasty storm for most folks on this board. When mother nature is ready to throw a bone she will, for now we wait. I think NYC really has a shot of another single digit snowfall season . Don't care what the pattern shows it's in midst of something that ain't ready to let go.

00Z GGEM was a good track for TTN-->NYC-->LI.  It could be correcting north as it came north from 12Z.

I heard the 0z Euro was not great too. Maybe a tick south.

WSW for my area, 5 to 9 inches with 10 locally possible.Colder weather after the snowstorm will make a snowpack possible.

Bernie's map on Accuweather went from 1-3 for me to now 6-12.

It's painfully close. This storm will agonize many folks on the is board including myself.