Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

by **sroc4** Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:12 am

GEFS hold with its Op

by **essexcountypete** Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:12 am

Irish wrote:
essexcountypete wrote:
Irish wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:GFS just went Godzilla

Okay, we can stop with any further updates or changes now that that dark purple strip is over my area. Fire wood ready and selecting my movie list for tomorrow. This solution would be solid for most on this board.

My first thought when I saw that map was "oh Irish will like that one" LOL!!! LOCK IT IN!!!

Mom should be loving that as well.

come on, really?! That was your first thought?! Hysterical! You would've thought I made that map.

Totally! How often do you see the lollipop jackpot show up on Monmouth/Middlesex?

(just don't count on it staying there Razz

)

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:13 am

Irish wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:GFS just went Godzilla

Okay, we can stop with any further updates or changes now that that dark purple strip is over my area. Fire wood ready and selecting my movie list for tomorrow. This solution would be solid for most on this board.

He says with the max area overheard LOL.

Listen I'll take the 10-12 it now has over me and sacrifice the higher amounts for the good of the board but that cutoff to my north is getting to close for comfort. Personally I wouldn't mind a 25 mile shift north today.

Of course any individual model run we see today should be taken with a grain of salt. Also remeber the 10:1 ratio snow maps are BS, the areas of 15-18 over CNJ probably more like 10-12 with a proper kuchera map. Try to use a blend of each set of runs and concentrate on that. Whatever you see on a map today will probably not unfold exactly as you see it anyway.

This will band and dryslot as it sees fit along with areas of subsidence that will always happen in a storm like this. Always remember that and keep expectations in check. A word of advice from a recovering Snowcaholic.

by **amugs** Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:15 am

by **amugs** Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:18 am

HREF - MOMMA MIA !!!
Remember this is a 10:1 map not going to be most so take about 3-4" off for lower ration - coastal plain regions

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 12 GGJhNwNW4AADlwT?format=jpg&name=small

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 12 GGJhNwNW4AADlwT?format=jpg&name=small

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:25 am

essexcountypete wrote:
Irish wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:GFS just went Godzilla

Okay, we can stop with any further updates or changes now that that dark purple strip is over my area. Fire wood ready and selecting my movie list for tomorrow. This solution would be solid for most on this board.

My first thought when I saw that map was "oh Irish will like that one" LOL!!! LOCK IT IN!!!

Mom should be loving that as well.

I looked at that post and busted out laughing...all I kept seeing is coastal flood warning and maybe a trace and then this pops up. Lol I will believe when I see it..

by **heehaw453** Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:26 am

The 15Z RAP meso is an absolute crush job for the I95.

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 12 Rap15z10

by **sroc4** Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:27 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Irish wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:GFS just went Godzilla

Okay, we can stop with any further updates or changes now that that dark purple strip is over my area. Fire wood ready and selecting my movie list for tomorrow. This solution would be solid for most on this board.

He says with the max area overheard LOL.

Listen I'll take the 10-12 it now has over me and sacrifice the higher amounts for the good of the board but that cutoff to my north is getting to close for comfort. Personally I wouldn't mind a 25 mile shift north today.

Of course any individual model run we see today should be taken with a grain of salt. Also remeber the 10:1 ratio snow maps are BS, the areas of 15-18 over CNJ probably more like 10-12 with a proper kuchera map. Try to use a blend of each set of runs and concentrate on that. Whatever you see on a map today will probably not unfold exactly as you see it anyway.

This will band and dryslot as it sees fit along with areas of subsidence that will always happen in a storm like this. Always remember that and keep expectations in check. A word of advice from a recovering Snowcaholic.

Here is your GFS Kuchera Map

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 12 1707966000-6HhbgETDbZc

by **Irish** Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:30 am

essexcountypete wrote:
Irish wrote:
essexcountypete wrote:
Irish wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:GFS just went Godzilla

Okay, we can stop with any further updates or changes now that that dark purple strip is over my area. Fire wood ready and selecting my movie list for tomorrow. This solution would be solid for most on this board.

My first thought when I saw that map was "oh Irish will like that one" LOL!!! LOCK IT IN!!!

Mom should be loving that as well.

come on, really?! That was your first thought?! Hysterical! You would've thought I made that map.

Totally! How often do you see the lollipop jackpot show up on Monmouth/Middlesex?

(just don't count on it staying there )

Never, and if it is does, it's because the entire state is getting a Miller A and it's area wide explosion! I certainly don't count on it staying exactly there, but with being this close to the storm hitting, I like where we're at.

by **amugs** Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:31 am

This is exactly what I said to JMAN last night - Need the 700 and 850 to get off by AC and NYC gets in on the goods - now if we can get. if they can catch up with each other then we go Deathcom 5!!! This is a level 2 in my book right.

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 12 GGJlvm_WYAAWTpW?format=jpg&name=small

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 12 GGJlvm_WYAAWTpW?format=jpg&name=small

by **heehaw453** Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:34 am

The 12Z GEFS yowza. This is BM track signature IMO with rapid development.

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 12 Gefs85

by **amugs** Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:35 am

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 12 GGJkrzwWcAA5pYC?format=png&name=medium

GFS metograms show NYC puking snow from 7AM though Noon!!
1.5" of Precip - GOD IF ONLY WE HAD A QUEBEC HP ANCHORED OVERHEAD!!

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:38 am

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 12 Image_16

The Canadian crushes us too.

by **jmanley32** Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:45 am

Irish wrote:
essexcountypete wrote:
Irish wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:GFS just went Godzilla

Okay, we can stop with any further updates or changes now that that dark purple strip is over my area. Fire wood ready and selecting my movie list for tomorrow. This solution would be solid for most on this board.

My first thought when I saw that map was "oh Irish will like that one" LOL!!! LOCK IT IN!!!

Mom should be loving that as well.

come on, really?! That was your first thought?! Hysterical! You would've thought I made that map.

Actually me too Irish lol, this is insane, now snow gets down to central and parts of southern NJ and that strip your in is oriented very interestingly. But wow not complaining at all! Will it happen? It is anybody's guess.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:56 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
The Canadian crushes us too.

That 12 over my house is nice but 30 miles north, that's a sharp cutoff, extreme even.

It's looking more and more like it will be a nail biter for those on the north and south end of the high totals, just for different reasons.

by **jmanley32** Mon Feb 12, 2024 12:09 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
The Canadian crushes us too.

That 12 over my house is nice but 30 miles north, that's a sharp cutoff, extreme even.

It's looking more and more like it will be a nail biter for those on the north and south end of the high totals, just for different reasons.

It is all nice CP for majority verbatim and pretty much all models have a similar snow output (yes looking at the snow maps, your point was well taken) but what I take is there is consistency across all of them for a 10+ inch snowfall for PA, NNJ NYC, And all of Hudson Valley up to just north of you. Looks possible even for central to even slightly south of central NJ like on GFS. Lets just pray these hold and don't move a lot (they also all have pretty much the same axis of the snowfall placement), we are well under 24 hrs now till game time so lets see, personally the snow maps don't mean much at this pt though Euro will be interesting to see.

by **docstox12** Mon Feb 12, 2024 12:47 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
The Canadian crushes us too.

That 12 over my house is nice but 30 miles north, that's a sharp cutoff, extreme even.

It's looking more and more like it will be a nail biter for those on the north and south end of the high totals, just for different reasons.

I think it was much easier and stress free back in the day, some 60 years ago, when all you had was the 1/2 hourly radio news forecasts and the evening tv weather folks.Then you waited for that day and got a good or a bad surprise, and I had many of both.You observed out your window and knew after a couple of hours what was going to happen.Saw a great surprise for the Dec,11-12 1960 snowstorm( they had forecasted 4 inches and it was over 20) and a bad suprise( March 1962 Superstorm forecasted over a foot and got a dusting).Let's hope this thing bombs out and the precip field expands big time so everybody gets in on the goods.

by **billg315** Mon Feb 12, 2024 12:49 pm

A few thoughts at present which may change with the wind as they say:
1. Liquid equivalents are pretty high on some models which is fueling some of these snow totals. But, I often think the GPS overdoes precipitation totals and I also think this will be less of a 10:1 maybe more of a 8:1 ratio event so the 10:1 maps might be a bit high.
2. Some models are showing sleet mixing in during the transition period. Models never do well with this in terms of factoring it into snow maps. It negatively affects accumulation amounts (obviously).
3. Ground will be just above freezing at outset, so really need the heavy rates to set in for this to start sticking. Once it does, it should pile up quick, but we could lose a couple (a few?) hours at the outset while the lighter precip doesn't accumulate right away. It will however help that it is starting at night and by the time the sun comes up, it should be getting heavy already.

Therefore, I'd take these snow maps and maybe read them with a conservative eye. Maybe shave a couple inches off the verbatim outputs. This is still a significant storm, but I don't want people expecting 12" and being disappointed if they get 8 or 9" in their area.

by **amugs** Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:00 pm

billg315 wrote:A few thoughts at present which may change with the wind as they say:
1. Liquid equivalents are pretty high on some models which is fueling some of these snow totals. But, I often think the GPS overdoes precipitation totals and I also think this will be less of a 10:1 maybe more of a 8:1 ratio event so the 10:1 maps might be a bit high.
2. Some models are showing sleet mixing in during the transition period. Models never do well with this in terms of factoring it into snow maps. It negatively affects accumulation amounts (obviously).
3. Ground will be just above freezing at outset, so really need the heavy rates to set in for this to start sticking. Once it does, it should pile up quick, but we could lose a couple (a few?) hours at the outset while the lighter precip doesn't accumulate right away. It will however help that it is starting at night and by the time the sun comes up, it should be getting heavy already.

Therefore, I'd take these snow maps and maybe read them with a conservative eye. Maybe shave a couple inches off the verbatim outputs. This is still a significant storm, but I don't want people expecting 12" and being disappointed if they get 8 or 9" in their area.
Therefore

Kuchera maps are better in this marginal set up.
I'm looking at 5-8" here even though the maps may say 12" - not a truly arctic air mass again, if there was then those would be much better, realistic to use.

by DAYBLAZER Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:04 pm

billg315 wrote:This is still a significant storm, but I don't want people expecting 12" and being disappointed if they get 8 or 9" in their area.

This right here ^^ couldn't have said it better myself. I think it's important for everyone to view the next 24 hours as a gift, no matter what. 3-4 years ago, I would have been 'that guy' you are referencing. But if the last few winters have taught me anything, it's that any snow is good snow, and this will be 'good snow' for me whether I get 4 inches or 12 inches IMBY. I have been humbled by Mother Nature and no longer 'expect' big storms just because it's winter.

Not to mention, we all get to enjoy the 'track.' Nothing better than having something out there that warrants it's own thread, and another thread for snow maps. That right there is why this forum exists, and it's an absolute pleasure to obsessively check in on this forum for discussion and excellent analysis in the hours leading up to a potential 'big event.'

by **phil155** Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:06 pm

Accu weather for Edison is calling for 1-3 inches which seems low

by **Irish** Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:08 pm

phil155 wrote:Accu weather for Edison is calling for 1-3 inches which seems low

Not if this storm keeps sliding south and east. I think some models are starting to show that.

by **heehaw453** Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:11 pm

12Z Euro closes off h5 ull late. The big dog comes when that close off is before it leaves the coast. That's the biggest concern for the LHV/NW NJ/Poconos folks. If that close off is late disappointment will occur. I'm at a point with this storm Go BIG or Go HOME.

by **Irish** Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:12 pm

by **heehaw453** Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:17 pm

Irish wrote:
phil155 wrote:Accu weather for Edison is calling for 1-3 inches which seems low
Not if this storm keeps sliding south and east. I think some models are starting to show that.

It's the consolidation that's what is at question now. IF this consolidates it's a really good storm if not rather run of the mill type deal.

by **billg315** Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:18 pm

Irish wrote:

This is what heehaw references above. This would be a scenario where the storm matures/intensifies late. Coastal areas get a couple hours of heavy snow at the end adding to totals, but the area in general does not get in on the heavier amounts. This is one of about 3 or 4 outcomes here that is definitely not off the table.

by DAYBLAZER Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:20 pm

Model mayhem. As someone said earlier, this is an incredibly dynamic storm. No single run is going to be the true outcome. The 12z Euro showing a different setup than a lot of the shorter-range guidance that's now coming into range. Who will get it right?

Speaking of, when do we start focusing on the short-range models? We are basically inside of 12 hours now.

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